Thursday September 9 2021 Forecast (7:25AM)

63 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 9-13)

A slow-moving cold front moving west to east across the region will be the focus for showers and a few thunderstorms today into tonight, enhanced this afternoon and early evening by a wave of low pressure moving along it. Shower activity will be widespread, and while not every location will see the heaviest downpours, many will see some heavy rainfall for a time, and localized flooding may result – but not to the degree of recent events. Additionally, we have rough surf and large ocean swells (and resultant high rip current risk) from offshore Hurricane Larry ongoing today, which will also linger into the start of the weekend as the storm races by southeastern Canada on its way into the northern Atlantic. Meanwhile, we dry out overnight / early Friday as our low pressure wave and front pull offshore. Drier air moves in Friday as high pressure moves across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, but a weak trough moving through at upper levels supplies a pool of chilly air above us, and that results in some atmospheric instability, so when the sun heats the ground on Friday and works on the lingering moisture from today’s rainfall, we’ll see diurnal cloud development to prevent a totally sunny day, and some of those clouds may grow enough to produce a few isolated showers mainly in the afternoon. But with high pressure sliding to the south of the region and the upper levels warming, we have excellent timing for great late summer weather this upcoming weekend, both Saturday and Sunday, with the coolest part of the weekend being Saturday morning and Sunday the warmer of the 2 days. Another bubble of high pressure in eastern Canada will send a frontal boundary through the region early Monday with some clouds accompanying it, but right now it looks like we will miss any shower chance.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy morning with showers/thunderstorms moving out of eastern coastal MA and across Cape Cod through 8AM then numerous to widespread showers returning from southwest to northeast all areas mid morning through afternoon with embedded downpours and possible thunder. Poor drainage area flooding and small stream flooding may occur. Areas of fog. Humid. Highs 69-76. Wind S becoming variable then N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with widespread to numerous showers through evening. Breaking clouds overnight. Areas of fog. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated afternoon showers. Less humid. Highs 70-77. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 51-58. Wind NW to W under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 72-79. Wind calm then S to SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 53-60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 76-83. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 14-18)

High pressure brings fair weather to the region September 14 into September 15 with a cooler start then warming up. Next frontal system brings shower chances late September 15 to early September 16 followed by fair, drier and slightly cooler weather into September 17 before it warms up again at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 19-23)

A weaker west to east flow pattern is expected but this may allow low pressure to the south of the region to get a little closer with some cloudiness and possible shower chances early in the period. Another disturbance from the west may bring showers followed by a late period cool-down, but this is lower confidence at this time.

63 thoughts on “Thursday September 9 2021 Forecast (7:25AM)”

  1. NHC realllly stretched it on Mindy.
    Had to make sure we got the record for most named storms by this date though. Mission accomplished. 😉

  6. Thanks TK.

    Woke at 4am to an EBS Tornado Warning from the NWS blaring on my phone. Fortunately ended up only being a lot of torrential rain, thunder and lightning as the rotation passed just south of us but there was an apparent tornado touchdown in south Coventry. NBC CT was reporting from there this am and it looked like a lot of snapped branches and some power line damage. Snapshot of the radar at 4am from Ryan Hanrahan…

    https://twitter.com/ryanhanrahan/status/1435876354717855744?s=21

    1. Picked up another 1.18” of rain from this in under 30 minutes. Up to 7.14” of rain already on the month.

    3. Wow. I’m glad you are all right. I saw that I had a lightning proximity warning around 5:00 so wondered if I’d slept through storms. But a blaring tornado warning in the night had to be chilling.

    4. Amazing!

      I didn’t expect that. When I retired for the evening, storms looked like they were weakening. So much for that.

      Happy all is well.

  9. Thank you, TK.

    0.18 here and since our sink hole is still open, I’m hoping we don’t get much. Water levels here have already dropped.

        1. Oh, I remember. It is quite the place.
          The weather is beautiful, although once I was there in June and it rained steady for 3 days. 🙂

          1. Never been to Bermuda but from what I understand, they handle hurricanes much better than the U.S. and recover from them very quickly. Their infrastructure is impeccable.

            1. I stayed a week in a house near the beach. Constructed very well. Very solid. nothing flimsy about the homes at all.

  15. Looks like the Cape finally gets a good soaking today while the radar for most of the metro west area is light and breaking up a bit in places. Love to see Bermuda get a miss on Larry since it is one of our favorite spots.

    1. Thanks!
      Going to be interesting to see how Monday plays out.
      I had showers in the forecast, then took them out……..

  18. SSK, you are correct. It’s very humid. The weather gods are definitely taunting me with the September humidity. September always has some humid days. At this point, however, I’ll really done with it. When the night-time temperatures finally dip into the 40s I’ll celebrate with champagne. By the way, last year Northern New England had already had a few nights with temps around 40F. This showed up in early fall foliage. 2021 is quite different in this regard. My sister confirms that in Vermont nights have mostly been warm, there’s no foliage, and last year there already was some, especially in hilly areas.

  19. A look at current radar (4PM) shows exactly where the front is located. 🙂
    Boston is on the warm side still. I am loving the mild muggy rainfall today. I love walking around outside in this with sandals. 🙂 I’m in my late summer element!

  21. I am happy, TK, that you are in your element today.

    On January 8th, when it’s 13F outside with a blustery wind blowing and I’m running along the icy Charles after an 8 inch snowfall, that’s when I’ll be in my element! Although not with sandals on.

    1. That’s also one of my elements, as you can probably guess. But in similar conditions last January I was out there in that, but not with sandals the entire time, barefoot for part of it, with my feet in the Atlantic water at Hampton Beach. 🙂

  22. The old AccuWeather 45-day forecast is now a 60-day forecast, just for your way-in-advance planning purposes. 😉

    First snow will fall on November 20. 😉

    You’re welcome. HAHAHA!

  23. Thanks all :re the well wishes. The tornado touched down about 100 yards down the road from some friends of ours.

    It is scary to get that warning in the middle of the night in the dark and then have the rain, thunder and lightning instantaneously ramp up. I could only see the trees outside when the lightning lit up the sky to be able to tell if it was getting windy or not. Fortunately it did not get that windy here as we are about 4 miles north of where the tornado touched down. Didn’t go in the basement either as I could tell on the radar that the rotation was heading south.

    Oddly enough this tornado tracked on almost the exact same path as the EF1 tornado that hit south Coventry back in 2013. That tornado was more intense and caught on camera:

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.reddit.com/r/Connecticut/comments/1i1kqc/tornado_tearing_through_mansfield_and_coventry_ct/

    And of course we had the EF1 tornado two years ago almost to the day in 2019 that touched down about a half mile down the road from my house and damaged a ton of trees at the golf course.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wfsb.com/news/nws-ef1-tornado-touched-down-in-coventry-mansfield/article_27bf4a9a-cfc4-11e9-9772-ebcc749f88cb.amp.html

    Our town is a tornado magnet!

  24. TK, I did chuckle at your comment.

    I should add, by the way, I’ll also be in my element soon. I adore crisp mid to late October and early November days with bright sunshine, 50s/low 60s, no humidity. Sandals are still a possibility then.

  25. This was the 4th tornado to happen in CT this year. 3 of the 4 were in eastern CT.
    Mark I would agree your town is a tornado magnet and I would add Bethany to this last as they had a stretch with two tornadoes in 3 years 2018 and 2020.

  26. Southern Baja of California having Olaf taking a paralleling track along its coast keeping a decent area on the right side of a Cat 2 storm.

  27. Chatham, on the Cape, with 2.48 inches in the past 5 hrs.

    They really didn´t get the tropical rains we got this summer.

  28. Brady just systematically dismantled the Cowboy defense on a drive downfield (well, a mechanized assault), looking like he’s 24 years old.

  31. I will be honest I will be shocked if the Cowboys win this game. I been saying that all week. I just want to see them compete and keep it to 14 points or less.

    1. They sure are competing. I had to step away from the TV and was shocked to return a while later and still seethe ball with the cowboys

  33. Sorry JJ. Hard for me to root against Brady. It will be an interesting dilemma for me to see Brady and Mac Jones face each other. Someone might have to pull me odd the ceiling for that

  35. If you told me the Cowboys would be down by only 5 points at the half I would have been very happy. If Greg Zuerlin did not miss an extra point and a field goal they would be down by 1 point.

  36. So two times in a row, Harvey Leonard’s tornado warnings have shown up on FB feeds 12-24 hours later. Looking at the hour mark on the post, you can see the warning is late. But you have to know to look for it. Several posters are asking him to fix it

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