Saturday September 11 2021 Forecast (7:20AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 11-15)

First, I need to mention that despite the fact that the large swells and rough surf are settling down in the wake of Larry’s far offshore passage, there is still enough around to result in enhanced rip current risks at the beaches this weekend, especially today, so keep that in mind if making a late summer beach visit! Otherwise, a great weekend as high pressure slides just to the south of New England then off the Mid Atlantic Coast, keeping all of today dry and the daylight and early evening hours of Sunday rain-free as it turns a bit more humid. A cold front approaches Sunday night and moves across the region from northwest to southeast late at night, at which time we will also eye the remnants of a mesoscale convective system (MCS) coming out of the Great Lakes region. The remnants of this system may move through with a batch of showers and thunderstorms during the late night Sunday / early morning Monday time frame, so we’ll have to keep an eye on it for the possibility of at least briefly heavy rainfall and gusty wind. These systems can be rather fickle and hard to pin-point in track even just a day or so in advance, as it hasn’t even formed yet, but is indicated strongly by short range guidance. Regardless, the frontal boundary will clear the region Monday morning with improved weather during the day Monday, and fair weather lasting through most of Tuesday as a small bubble of high pressure moves across the region. The front that went by early Monday will then return as a warm front moving across the region from southwest to northeast Tuesday night with a shower threat from it, then we will find ourselves in a warm and more humid southwesterly air flow for the day on Wednesday with the feel of summer back in the picture. Low pressure moving eastward to the north of the region will drag a cold front through on Wednesday night when there is the chance of a shower or thunderstorm once again.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 72-79. Wind calm then W to SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 53-60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. More humid – dew point into 60s. Highs 77-84. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms overnight. Humid – dew point in 60s. Lows 65-72. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a shower in the morning favoring the South Coast. Highs 70-77. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 50-57. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Wind 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm evening or night. Humid – dew point 60s to 70. Highs 80-87. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 16-20)

While the overall flow pattern will continue to be west to east, it weakens, and timing and strength of systems becomes a little uncertain. We’ll also have to watch a low pressure area, potentially of tropical origin, from mid to late period. Current idea is that a bubble of high pressure moves in with fair weather September 16-18, starting drier then turning more humid, then shower/rain chances increase toward the September 19-20 weekend with low pressure or at least some tropical moisture moving up from the south. Adjustments will likely be needed.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 21-25)

The general weather patter should still favor west to east flow but with the jet stream fairly far north we remain vulnerable to tropical moisture from the south should the set-up draw it northward. I do think we will get on push of dry Canadian air sometime early to mid period.

29 thoughts on “Saturday September 11 2021 Forecast (7:20AM)”

  1. Thanks TK.

    According to Dave Epstein, very humid from next Wednesday through next weekend. Will this (awful) summer ever end??? 🙁

    Y-U-U-C-K!!!

    1. We’ll get a small intrusion of drier air about next Thursday, maybe into Friday. But having higher humidity is not unusual at all for September, especially seeing as how it’s still summer (until Sep 22 @ 3:20PM).

      This summer hasn’t been especially bad for humidity or heat, even though Boston somehow mysteriously comes in at #1, including a July that was over a degree cooler than normal. 😉 Oh wait, it’s no mystery at all! Especially when your high temps are consistently in error to the + and your low temps are even more so in error to the +. But again, dead issue now. They aren’t going to change the skewed #’s which now will forever have an * next to them in my mind. But that is what that is. When myself and at least a half dozen of my very well respected colleagues (many former coworkers of mine) all agree on this, we are definitely not all wrong. 😉 Consensus effect. 😉 But you know, that doesn’t even anger me 1/10 as much as NHC’s naming scheme with the insurance industry. But I’ve soap-boxed enough for today. I have a lot of things to do (some chores, some fun) this weekend, so I get to those now… 😉

      2018’s summer was far more brutal for persistent humidity. We have not had that in summer 2021. Plenty of drier interludes for dew point, just a lot of days with rain which tilts the impression toward more constant humidity. Weather psych 101. 🙂

  3. Never forget the lives lost 20 years ago today. The weather is very similar to what it was 20 years ago today. I was a senior in high school and walked down the stairs into the cafe where study hall took place to look at the tv and see the World Trade Center towers on fire. I along with the rest of my classmates could not believe what we were looking at. As we were in the middle of switching classes The Pentagon was attacked. I saw the split screen on the tv of the World Trade Center and The Pentagon when I got to my next class. During that class both World Trade Center towers collapsed. My teacher looked at us after the first tower collapsed and said to us did that tower just collapse as he was when in shock just like us of what we just saw. No learning took place the rest of the day as we all watched what was unfolding.

    1. Thank you, JJ, for sharing your very moving memory.

      I was meeting for the first time with a man who would become my business partner for 19 years. He was to fly out of Boston the next day so got a call from a friend who thought he’d flown out that morning. I got home to turn on the tv and see photos of the towers falling. I thought it was some sort of a dramatization model so sure understand your teachers reaction

      Mac’s cousin’s son, Matt Claus, worked for Cantor Fitzgerald. They lost 658 employees that day. A year before, Matt and several other business friends had planned a fishing trip for that day. Matt has never fully recovered, but worked with several others to put Cantor Fitzgerald back together. A few here met his dad at Mac’s memorial.

  6. Thanks, TK…

    I remember nearly everything from 20 years ago like it was yesterday, including the weather on that morning which was very much like this morning’s.

    God bless America.

  8. Thank you, TK.

    A close friend lost her brother 20 years ago. He was in the second tower, above the point of impact. At 33, he was in the prime of his life, only to have it taken from him by fanatical terrorists.

    I remember the day vividly. As CF pointed out, the weather was magnificent. Crystal clear. Like I did every weekday, at around 8:15am, I walked from Park Street station to my workplace on South Street. When I got to the office, I made sure I emailed several friends – one in Brazil, one in England, and one in the Netherlands – to let them know that great weather had arrived, and that it was a “blessing to back in the U.S., and especially New England.” A few minutes later, I checked in with my mother. She said she’s fine but a Cessna had crashed into the World Trade Center. She had heard this from a business associate whose husband was in NYC at the time. We stayed on the phone while she was listening to the radio, and the second plane struck. From that moment on, everyone knew that a major attack was taking place.

    A few days before September 11th I had returned to Boston from the Netherlands, where I was visiting my two young children. My son called me at the office to ask if I was okay. I told him I was. He then asked if “we’d be okay.” I did my best to reassure him and his little sister (who was 7). On my way home that morning – we were told to leave the office as soon as possible – I remember thinking “will we be okay?” I wasn’t sure. No-one was. A splendid late summer day had turned horrible, and it seemed that everything had changed.

    1. “Will we be ok” literally brought me to tears, Joshua. A seven year old shouldn’t have to ask that question. And I’d forgotten that first reports was that it was a small plane.

  9. I was in finance back on 9/11, working as an accountant in a small wing of a rehabilitation hospital.

    Lot less instant communication back then, compared to today and we didn´t have access to a TV

    The few of us knew something awful had happened, but didn´t get hit with the devastating enormity of it all until getting home to watch TV.

      1. It hit like a rock around 6pm, having worked the traditional 9-5 corporate day with a moderate length commute.

        Listening to the radio driving home and what we were hearing earlier in the day didn´t prepare for what was seen on TV coverage.

        I remember being numb that evening after watching maybe 30 minutes of coverage.

        1. I remember that feeling also. It was surreal. I also remember the kids all heading out to buy flags and being unable to find them anywhere. It’s funny what memories you carry with you.

  10. TK nicely alludes, in his day 6-10 outlook, to a possible feature somewhere off the east coast.

    On today´s models, its falling in the hr 144-240 hr range or so.

    Next 72-96 hrs, very interested to see the model trends on this feature. Something to definitely watch.

    Last night was wonderfully refreshing. Anytime now, when a front drops the dewpoints, those cool nights are a given. Looking forward, conditions probably won´t favor a lot of similarly cool nights, but perhaps many with lows in the 60s and at least some moderate humidity or higher.

  11. There was a CNN special a week or so ago. The kids who were in the class President Bush was reading to were interviewed. It was really moving. I’ll never forget the look on the presidents face as what was happening was whispered in his ear.

  12. Jimmy and CF are correct in that today’s sky is eerily similar in stunning deep blue. Also, wasn’t there a major hurricane well offshore of the east coast on 9/11/01 (i.e., Larry)?

    1. Hurricane Erin, CAT 2, well east southeast of New England. That was part of the reason we had such clear air over the Northeast.

          1. It did stay clear that day. Today we had both diurnal cumulus with low level heating & residual moisture near the ground & some cirrus streaming in with very high level moisture.

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