Sunday September 12 2021 Forecast (7:21AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 12-16)

No big changes to the discussion today. In the very short term, we have another great late summer day today. Ocean swells / surf continue to settle down at the beaches, while we get to enjoy plenty of sun and warm mid September air, albeit with a little increase in humidity, but below oppressive levels. A plume of wildfire smoke has entered the region and will filter the sun today, along with some patches of clouds. A cold front approaches from the northwest this evening and an initial push of showers will likely dissipate as it moves toward the WHW forecast area, with maybe a few getting into southwestern NH or central MA this evening. But a stronger push of energy will be coming along in the form of a mesoscale convective system (MCS) which will race into southern New England, probably in weakening form, but still likely formidable, during the late evening and especially overnight hours. It remains to be seen where the strongest part(s) of this system, in terms of heaviest showers/thunderstorms will track. It will basically come down to radar watching. But keep in mind that any area is vulnerable to a period of heavy rain and potentially damaging wind sometime between midnight and dawn. This all should be out of here by first thing in the morning, by sunrise or shortly thereafter, other than some cloudiness and perhaps a lingering shower in eastern and southern areas. Monday ends up as a fairly nice day, not as warm as today but still nice, with lower humidity, sunshine and passing clouds. High pressure moves over the region Monday night with light wind and cooler air, but the center of this high being to the north of the region into Tuesday will allow the wind to start coming in from the east and we will have a sunny start but a cloudier finish as a warm front approaches from the west. This warm front will cross the region Tuesday night with increased humidity and a threat of showers, opening the door to warm and humid weather Wednesday after that warm front passes and before a cold front arrives. Current timing of the cold front still makes it look like a late evening or overnight (early Thursday) passage, so there will likely be a limited chance of showers and thunderstorms with it. A little wave of low pressure forming on the front may prolong the cloudiness and shower threat Thursday morning, but trend should be drier as high pressure in eastern Canada gets a bit closer to the region.

TODAY: Sun/clouds/smoke. More humid – dew point into 60s. Highs 77-84. Wind S 5-15 MPH, gusts over 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening with a slight chance of a shower southwestern NH and central MA. Mostly cloudy overnight with showers and thunderstorms likely, some of which may produce heavy rain and strong wind gusts.. Humid – dew point in 60s. Lows 65-72. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a shower in the morning favoring eastern MA and RI. Highs 70-77. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 50-57. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny start, mostly cloudy finish. Highs 70-77. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Wind 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Humid – dew point 60s to 70. Highs 80-87. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a passing shower or thunderstorm. Humid – dew point 60s. Lows 65-72. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy with a chance of showers during the morning. Mostly sunny in the afternoon. Drying. Highs 73-80. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 17-21)

Weaker west-to-east flow. High pressure should shift from north of the region to east of the region with fair weather and a warming trend the first couple days of the period. Mid period we need to watch low pressure to the south which may make a run at the region with a shower or rain threat and also may miss to the southeast. A frontal boundary should also move through from the west about September 20 with a push of drier air to end the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 22-26)

The general weather patter should still favor west to east flow but with the jet stream fairly far north we remain vulnerable to tropical moisture from the south should the set-up draw it northward again.

32 thoughts on “Sunday September 12 2021 Forecast (7:21AM)”

      1. In the hazardous weather outlook from NWS Boston it mentions the possibility of strong to severe thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday. I remember the SPC did this back in 2011 prior to the Springfield tornado when they were highlighting SNE in the 4-8 day outlook.

  9. From the observation link SAK posted on the blog, I am able to see an ob in Greenland, from Kulusuk Lufthavn.

    What a last several hours they have been having.

    What was Larry, having merged with a high latitude storm has given them hurricane force wind gusts for about 8 hrs now.

    Last ob, was E at 59 mph, gusting to 101.

    Just mild enough for rain, but I´m guessing up on the glacier, its significant snow.

      1. Looking at this loop, perhaps western Spain ends up in the news in a day or 2 for flooding. Quite the upper low with a deep moisture feed off the Atlantic.

  13. The last few runs of the HRRR are a little less impressive regarding the overnight / early morning threat. Further north and a bit weaker.

    Don’t let guard down though. These systems have a “mind” of their own.

  15. Was planning a trip to see my niece play in a soccer tournament in central Vermont on Wednesday afternoon/evening. That looks iffy at this point. Also, was planning a hike in the mountains early Thursday morning. Doesn’t look promising. I can postpone a week or two.

    1. Thats the positive for sure !

      The ¨wheel route¨ pass to James White was incredible with touch and the downfield passes to Jacoby Meyers were impressive.

  17. Mac Jones impressed me, he will of course have his ups and downs but this lost was by no means his fault. It was the recievers and particularly the running backs. Defense did good as well. Gave the offense the ball several times.

    2. Yeah, the defense was great, as long as you completely ignore the first drive of the 1st half and the 1st drive of the 2nd half. You know, the ones where the defense couldn’t stop a gust of wind and let the Dolphins march up field for touchdowns. Or that last drive, when all they had to do is stop the run when everyone in the stadium knew the Dolphins were running to kill the clock, and the Pats still couldn’t stop them.

    1. I think we will, heck I even think they might put some bootlegs in there once and a while. he reminds me of a Matt Ryan.

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