24 thoughts on “C-19 Chat Post – September 13 2021”
U-turns have been a policy theme throughout the pandemic. Perhaps no government has been as prone to quick U-turns – as in within a 24 hour period – as the UK government. Yesterday, PM Johnson and Health Secretary Javid insisted there would be no vaccine passport or green pass. Today, the government has reversed course. There will be a green pass system. To be clear, there already is such a system in place in some form, as I experienced when I was in England. It just wasn’t mandatory. Now it will be, at least in many venues.
Our collective failure throughout the pandemic has been instituting reactive as opposed to proactive policies. We’ve reacted to hospitalizations and deaths, instead of trying to prevent them by adopting a precautionary principle. The retort has been and still is: Well, where’s the off-ramp, when can we let up on preventive measures? I think that in March of 2020 policymakers and politicians should have reminded people that pandemics take time to resolve. And if the Spanish Flu is any indication, they should have said it’ll probably take about 2 years before it recedes sufficiently for us to abandon precautions. This doesn’t mean 2 years of severe restrictions. Not at all. But it does mean 2 years of taking precautions in public indoor spaces. https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/09/us/coronavirus-texas-schools-masks-trnd/index.html
I think there are far too many persons that simply do not
understand that Delta is a different animal and that rules
have changed.
Watching the news last night was pathetic. All the reporting
was as if the pandemic was/is all over. I can’t stand it.
This week should be interesting. If we don’t see a huge up tic in cases and hospitalizations, then perhaps there is some hope. However, I feel there will be a significant increase in cases.
We shall see.
I think cases and hospitalizations will turn down nationwide but then stabilize at a very high level. What’s unfortunate is that this will lead to complacency, not only among the masses but also policymakers and folks who’ve been on our TVs throughout the pandemic – Jha, Gottlieb, and others. I like Jha and Gottlieb, but I get a sense that they’ve been underestimating Delta for several months. And now they’re looking for any glimmer of hope they can find to tell us things will be fine. I remind them – not that they listen to me – that the UK is the cautionary tale. If they’re enduring a very long plateau of elevated cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, we will do so as well. And, it’ll be worse here, because we’re less vaccinated. On breakthrough infections, the following UK article is not as soothsaying as, say, Jha and Gottlieb. In fact, it’s downright worrisome. https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1489970/robert-peston-itv-coronavirus-news-latest-infections-rise-double-vaxxed-delta-variant
Great comments from you both. Joshua, I had not thought of that in that light. But you are correct. Our guidance has been backwards. I think it is human nature to avoid unnecessary truths. But those truths were never touched on. Even now, there is only sporadic mention of the risk of breakthroughs.
Dave, I very much agree with you re the frustration as I watch the news. Lately, I try not to because it doesn’t seem to serve any purpose.
🙂
The English are great record keepers (not just for Covid-19, by the way). In the first half of 2021, at least 640 fully vaccinated people died of Covid-19. Extrapolating forward, based on case numbers in June, July, and August my guess is that at least another 640 have died in the 2nd half (post July 1) already. See link below. This is NOT to say vaccines don’t work. They do. But, they’re not the elixir that the media portrays them as. Paradoxically, because the media often portrays vaccines as fail-safe products, when news comes out (like these data from England) that says vaccines are not fail-safe, that confirms the anti-vaxxer community’s preconceived notions about the media and others (eg, CDC) “hiding” data. https://twitter.com/business/status/1437413528848244739
EXACTLY. And it is why we need straight forward honesty.
Politicians and heads of organizations are afraid if they make a mistake that they will not seen as credible. So they sugar coat or tell half truths. That in itself makes them not credible.
For heaven sakes…..get up and say, if our messages changes, it is because we are in uncharted waters….we promise to do our best to be as forthcoming as we possible can.
Of course social media in instances such as this is a HUGE contributor. So I understand it is not easy being the one who needs to change course.
I would not want to be in their shoes.
Haven’t seen it yet. My daughter, who teaches at Medfiled High School, is terrified. The students are under a mask mandate, but many won’t where them. All the teachers can do, is let the parents know. There are no consequences for
not following the mandate. Thankfully, most high school students in that town are vaccinated.
Daughter is as concerned as we are,
Just waiting for the other shoe to drop. Hope it doesn’t, but Not much would surprise me with this pandemic.
I will be THRILLED if cases come down this week.
Let us hope so.
Old salty. That is crazy. What good is a mandate and shame on those parents. There should be consequences. Did she check with the superintendent. If it is part of the school policy, the school makes the rules on consequences. If part of the handbook, the superintendent holds the handbook.
Typical at year is first warning, second offense i forget and third is you need to be remote. Of course DESE does not allow remote. Yet it made the mandate.
Not typical at year. Typical Last year
Believe me she is not shy about these things. She is doing everything to get compliance.
I figured she was but was just caught off guard that this could be happening. I know Medfield has an exceptional school system. This shocks me. I am so sorry that teachers are put in this position. There is truly not enough that can be said about how amazing our teachers and school staff are.
How true. Thank you Joshua
Baker has surfaced. I mentioned a school bus driver shortage the other day.
JPD, your daughter (and any other teacher) should send those students to the principals office and that principal call their parents to pick them up ASAP and if they still don’t comply with the mask order the following day or days, do the same procedure. At some point their parents will get sick of getting calls at work or home to come pick their son/daughter up.
I am somewhat surprised at a Medfield. I would expect that type of behavior in a Boston, Cambridge, Somerville etc.
I didn’t watch much tv evening news yesterday since the Pats game was on but I have to somewhat disagree about the pandemic coverage. I watch most every evening, and from what I can tell, the local and national networks are doing the best they can in seriously covering the pandemic, emphasizing masking and vaccination, as well as the latest updates etc., not to mention follow up interviews with the usual medical professionals. The unvaccinated are not listening, that’s the problem imho.
I have not read the local new talk about the depth of breakthroughs. It sure doesn’t mean they are not. If they are , then vaccinated are not listening
Eric fisher on Twitter also does a great job. I honestly don’t watch tv news so I’m curious whether they mention fully vaxxed
Philip, some of the local news stations are doing good reporting. A program that appears to have been relegated to the trash heap – The Ten *NECN) – did some excellent reporting through June.
JPD, I’m appalled at the lack of compliance with measures that could save lives. I’m sorry your daughters have to deal with this.
As you may be aware, a growing number of prominent, vocal anti-vax, anti-mask people are hospitalized, on ventilators, or dead. Several radio talk-show hosts died this month. The list of vocal and publicly well-known anti-vax/anti-mask folks who recently got sick or died include activists, politicians, and media folks: Veronica Wolski, H. Scott Apley, Dick Farrel, Phil Valentine, Andre Jacque, Stephen Harmon, Pressley Stutts, Robert D Steele, Dr. Jimmy DeYoung Sr., Marc Bernier, Caleb Wallace, Jim Demyan, Fred Lowry, among many others.
Some of these people were in their 30s/40s/50s. None of them were frail and elderly.
Finally, people often ask me why testing is so important. Well, first to prevent further spread. Second, to make sure that people get treated in a timely fashion. Exhibit A is a 24-year-old college assistant basketball coach, Ryan Dupree of Georgia, who died of Covid-19 last week. He died two days after testing positive for the virus in the hospital. This is still happening way too often in this country, where people have no idea they have Covid-19, can’t find a test or testing site, get really sick, wind up in the hospital, and once there it’s discovered they have Covid-19. This should NOT be happening in an advanced, wealthy nation.
By the way, while it’s rare for young folks like Dupree to die of Covid, or even get hospitalized, it certainly happens, and more frequently with Delta than other variants. With the kind of viral spread going on in states like Georgia, and the packed football stadiums (basketball next month) with no mitigation, we’ll see quite a number of deaths like Dupree.
Five kids. That is heartbreaking.
To Joshua’s positive post above. Let’s keep fingers crossed
U-turns have been a policy theme throughout the pandemic. Perhaps no government has been as prone to quick U-turns – as in within a 24 hour period – as the UK government. Yesterday, PM Johnson and Health Secretary Javid insisted there would be no vaccine passport or green pass. Today, the government has reversed course. There will be a green pass system. To be clear, there already is such a system in place in some form, as I experienced when I was in England. It just wasn’t mandatory. Now it will be, at least in many venues.
Our collective failure throughout the pandemic has been instituting reactive as opposed to proactive policies. We’ve reacted to hospitalizations and deaths, instead of trying to prevent them by adopting a precautionary principle. The retort has been and still is: Well, where’s the off-ramp, when can we let up on preventive measures? I think that in March of 2020 policymakers and politicians should have reminded people that pandemics take time to resolve. And if the Spanish Flu is any indication, they should have said it’ll probably take about 2 years before it recedes sufficiently for us to abandon precautions. This doesn’t mean 2 years of severe restrictions. Not at all. But it does mean 2 years of taking precautions in public indoor spaces. https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/09/us/coronavirus-texas-schools-masks-trnd/index.html
I think there are far too many persons that simply do not
understand that Delta is a different animal and that rules
have changed.
Watching the news last night was pathetic. All the reporting
was as if the pandemic was/is all over. I can’t stand it.
This week should be interesting. If we don’t see a huge up tic in cases and hospitalizations, then perhaps there is some hope. However, I feel there will be a significant increase in cases.
We shall see.
I think cases and hospitalizations will turn down nationwide but then stabilize at a very high level. What’s unfortunate is that this will lead to complacency, not only among the masses but also policymakers and folks who’ve been on our TVs throughout the pandemic – Jha, Gottlieb, and others. I like Jha and Gottlieb, but I get a sense that they’ve been underestimating Delta for several months. And now they’re looking for any glimmer of hope they can find to tell us things will be fine. I remind them – not that they listen to me – that the UK is the cautionary tale. If they’re enduring a very long plateau of elevated cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, we will do so as well. And, it’ll be worse here, because we’re less vaccinated. On breakthrough infections, the following UK article is not as soothsaying as, say, Jha and Gottlieb. In fact, it’s downright worrisome. https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1489970/robert-peston-itv-coronavirus-news-latest-infections-rise-double-vaxxed-delta-variant
Great comments from you both. Joshua, I had not thought of that in that light. But you are correct. Our guidance has been backwards. I think it is human nature to avoid unnecessary truths. But those truths were never touched on. Even now, there is only sporadic mention of the risk of breakthroughs.
Dave, I very much agree with you re the frustration as I watch the news. Lately, I try not to because it doesn’t seem to serve any purpose.
🙂
The English are great record keepers (not just for Covid-19, by the way). In the first half of 2021, at least 640 fully vaccinated people died of Covid-19. Extrapolating forward, based on case numbers in June, July, and August my guess is that at least another 640 have died in the 2nd half (post July 1) already. See link below. This is NOT to say vaccines don’t work. They do. But, they’re not the elixir that the media portrays them as. Paradoxically, because the media often portrays vaccines as fail-safe products, when news comes out (like these data from England) that says vaccines are not fail-safe, that confirms the anti-vaxxer community’s preconceived notions about the media and others (eg, CDC) “hiding” data. https://twitter.com/business/status/1437413528848244739
EXACTLY. And it is why we need straight forward honesty.
Politicians and heads of organizations are afraid if they make a mistake that they will not seen as credible. So they sugar coat or tell half truths. That in itself makes them not credible.
For heaven sakes…..get up and say, if our messages changes, it is because we are in uncharted waters….we promise to do our best to be as forthcoming as we possible can.
Of course social media in instances such as this is a HUGE contributor. So I understand it is not easy being the one who needs to change course.
I would not want to be in their shoes.
Haven’t seen it yet. My daughter, who teaches at Medfiled High School, is terrified. The students are under a mask mandate, but many won’t where them. All the teachers can do, is let the parents know. There are no consequences for
not following the mandate. Thankfully, most high school students in that town are vaccinated.
Daughter is as concerned as we are,
Just waiting for the other shoe to drop. Hope it doesn’t, but Not much would surprise me with this pandemic.
I will be THRILLED if cases come down this week.
Let us hope so.
Old salty. That is crazy. What good is a mandate and shame on those parents. There should be consequences. Did she check with the superintendent. If it is part of the school policy, the school makes the rules on consequences. If part of the handbook, the superintendent holds the handbook.
Typical at year is first warning, second offense i forget and third is you need to be remote. Of course DESE does not allow remote. Yet it made the mandate.
Not typical at year. Typical Last year
Believe me she is not shy about these things. She is doing everything to get compliance.
I figured she was but was just caught off guard that this could be happening. I know Medfield has an exceptional school system. This shocks me. I am so sorry that teachers are put in this position. There is truly not enough that can be said about how amazing our teachers and school staff are.
How true. Thank you Joshua
Baker has surfaced. I mentioned a school bus driver shortage the other day.
https://boston.cbslocal.com/2021/09/13/massachusetts-national-guard-activated-school-bus-driver-shortage/
JPD, your daughter (and any other teacher) should send those students to the principals office and that principal call their parents to pick them up ASAP and if they still don’t comply with the mask order the following day or days, do the same procedure. At some point their parents will get sick of getting calls at work or home to come pick their son/daughter up.
I am somewhat surprised at a Medfield. I would expect that type of behavior in a Boston, Cambridge, Somerville etc.
I didn’t watch much tv evening news yesterday since the Pats game was on but I have to somewhat disagree about the pandemic coverage. I watch most every evening, and from what I can tell, the local and national networks are doing the best they can in seriously covering the pandemic, emphasizing masking and vaccination, as well as the latest updates etc., not to mention follow up interviews with the usual medical professionals. The unvaccinated are not listening, that’s the problem imho.
I have not read the local new talk about the depth of breakthroughs. It sure doesn’t mean they are not. If they are , then vaccinated are not listening
Eric fisher on Twitter also does a great job. I honestly don’t watch tv news so I’m curious whether they mention fully vaxxed
Philip, some of the local news stations are doing good reporting. A program that appears to have been relegated to the trash heap – The Ten *NECN) – did some excellent reporting through June.
JPD, I’m appalled at the lack of compliance with measures that could save lives. I’m sorry your daughters have to deal with this.
As you may be aware, a growing number of prominent, vocal anti-vax, anti-mask people are hospitalized, on ventilators, or dead. Several radio talk-show hosts died this month. The list of vocal and publicly well-known anti-vax/anti-mask folks who recently got sick or died include activists, politicians, and media folks: Veronica Wolski, H. Scott Apley, Dick Farrel, Phil Valentine, Andre Jacque, Stephen Harmon, Pressley Stutts, Robert D Steele, Dr. Jimmy DeYoung Sr., Marc Bernier, Caleb Wallace, Jim Demyan, Fred Lowry, among many others.
Some of these people were in their 30s/40s/50s. None of them were frail and elderly.
Here’s Veronica Wolski defying a mask requirement at Staples recently: https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1437379812901986306
And here’s a sad story of a couple who died – in their 30s – of Covid-19: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/california-couple-die-covid-leave-behind-5-kids-including-newborn-n1279044
Finally, people often ask me why testing is so important. Well, first to prevent further spread. Second, to make sure that people get treated in a timely fashion. Exhibit A is a 24-year-old college assistant basketball coach, Ryan Dupree of Georgia, who died of Covid-19 last week. He died two days after testing positive for the virus in the hospital. This is still happening way too often in this country, where people have no idea they have Covid-19, can’t find a test or testing site, get really sick, wind up in the hospital, and once there it’s discovered they have Covid-19. This should NOT be happening in an advanced, wealthy nation.
By the way, while it’s rare for young folks like Dupree to die of Covid, or even get hospitalized, it certainly happens, and more frequently with Delta than other variants. With the kind of viral spread going on in states like Georgia, and the packed football stadiums (basketball next month) with no mitigation, we’ll see quite a number of deaths like Dupree.
Five kids. That is heartbreaking.
To Joshua’s positive post above. Let’s keep fingers crossed
https://twitter.com/erictopol/status/1437516688916840449?s=21
C-19 for 9-14 is ready.