Tuesday September 14 2021 Forecast (7:33AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 14-18)

A weak area of high pressure to the north today is enough to provide some nice weather. The warm front approaching from the southwest doesn’t have a solid area of cloudiness with it, instead being the focus of clusters of showers and thunderstorms in a fairly narrow zone southwest of New England. This frontal boundary will move across our region overnight / early Wednesday with the chance of a few showers and a thunderstorm along it, but not a solid area of rainfall. It will introduce a gusty southwesterly wind and high humidity for Wednesday, a day that will have the feel of summer with a sun/cloud mix. A cold front approaching from the northwest parented by low pressure moving eastward to our north will be timed late enough that I still think we escape a severe weather threat. We likely see general showers and thunderstorms moving in Wednesday night, in weakening form, that had been much stronger to the west during the day. The frontal boundary will then slog its way across the WHW forecast area early Thursday with additional showers possible, and while the boundary itself never gets that far beyond us, we may see enough dry air work in for some partial improvement Thursday afternoon. It’s at that time our attention will turn to low pressure to the south. While this system may become a tropical depression or even minimal tropical storm, it doesn’t concern me just for being a potential tropical entity, as it doesn’t look like it would turn into a formidable system with wind and torrential rainfall. However, it will contain tropical moisture, and its track should be close enough to at least bring some rainfall into the region during Friday. There are still some differences of output across models as to how much rain gets in here and with the track of the system itself, and also its speed of movement. I remain optimistic at this time that it does move far enough to the north, and far enough to the east, that drier air is drawn into our region as early as Saturday for improving weather in time for the weekend, but a slower and/or further west system would change this outlook, so it’s low confidence at the time.

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 70-77. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm overnight. Lows 60-67. Wind SE up to 10 MPH shifting to SW.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 78-85. Humid – dew point upper 60s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers/thunderstorms. Lows 63-70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers especially in the morning. Highs 70-77. Wind variable 5-15 MPH becoming NE.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 58-65. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Highs 67-74. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain evening. Areas of fog. Lows 58-65. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 19-23)

High pressure builds in with a dry stretch of weather early to mid period, along with a warming trend. A trough and frontal system from the west brings the chance of unsettled weather back by later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 24-28)

General west-to-east flow resumes with up and down temperatures and limited shower chances but still need to watch the western tropical Atlantic for potentially putting a system somewhere near or off the East Coast.

41 thoughts on “Tuesday September 14 2021 Forecast (7:33AM)”

  12. Pretty impressive wind and wave action in Texas as Nicholas made landfall…

    Jim Cantore Retweeted
    Chris Bruin
    @TWCChrisBruin
    11h

    Have yet to even fall asleep in this extreme noise from the wind and waves Hurricane Nicholas is bringing. Currently I’m in my bed getting sprayed with mist as the balcony doors got blown in taking out a piece of the wall with it and now won’t close back up.
    @weatherchannel

    https://twitter.com/TWCChrisBruin/status/1437691210865553412?s=20

  13. Mark, thank you very much for the winter-themed posts that could indicate the possibility of some real winter action in December. We’ll see.

  14. Based on the forecast, I’m guessing the soccer game I was going to attend in Norwich, Vermont tomorrow late afternoon will be canceled. Norwich is sort of in the bull’s eye zone for storms, or so it appears. My niece has another home game on the 21st. I hope to go then.

    1. Yes, it is a quite cold and snowy look up there in the Pacific NW, western Canada, and Alaska for this time of year. I also saw some tweets about some record cold temps in parts of Siberia a few days ago as well. Good early season snowpack in these areas can have downstream implications as far as cold weather goes here in late Fall/early winter, especially if we have a weakened polar vortex and troughiness in the East as some of these models are predicting. But a long ways off still and many other factors besides these at play.

  19. Sutton foliage has always tended to be on the duller side with muted yellows and some oranges. IIRC Last year, it seems once most had passed that some pretty great colors appeared for a while. We also tend to stay green longer than most

    Driving along back roads a bit ago, my daughter and I were surprised at some very vivid reds. Not in unhealthy trees. We do have one on the hill behind us that is unhealthy and lost all leaves a bit ago.

  20. Lots of folks having fun with monthlies today from a model set that is doing a sucktastic job forecasting lately. But it’s fun I guess.

    I’m staying focused on the weather pattern over the next 10-15 days. We have a lot of things to follow. 🙂

  21. I’m not overly impressed with severe weather chances in central and eastern MA, CT, and RI tomorrow. Timing doesn’t favor the big stuff in southeastern areas, rather outflow dominated weakening line segments.

    1. How about East Central Vermont? My sister thinks her daughter still might have a game tomorrow late afternoon – 4:30pm. I’m skeptical.

      1. They are far more vulnerable and need to keep a close eye on the development / movement of storms.

    1. Sadly, what’s going on there is still far too common. Men & women are not treated equally in that industry, as well as many others.

      1. So true. I had the sense that her not being svelte played into the decision. I also have the sense that, while better for males, it still not as it should be

        1. I hate to say it but it probably had something to do with the way she was looked at by her higher-ups. That’s just sad if it’s true.

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