Wednesday September 15 2021 Forecast (7:34AM)

64 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 15-19)

A warm front is pushing through the region early this morning and will open the door for a late-season summer blast of warmth and humidity today with a gusty wind to go along with it. A cold front will be approaching later in the day but won’t get here until the late night hours tonight into the early morning hours of Thursday. A line or two of thunderstorms spawned by the front will be quite strong to our northwest and west later in the day, but will be on a weakening trend as it enters the northwestern part of the WHW forecast area by this evening. We’ll have to keep an eye on it still for a few surviving stronger cells and some gusty winds, but I think the more powerful severe potential will have been lost in a lot of the activity by the time it gets here. The remnants of this line and the spawning of newer showers as the front crosses the region overnight will bring the shower chance to most areas. The front will hang up near the South Coast and wash out, its remnants pushing back to the north during Thursday as the focus for some scattered shower activity in the region with lots of clouds lingering. Low pressure to the south may develop into a tropical depression or even minimal tropical storm as it makes a run at our region on Friday, but the trends continue to be for the bulk of this system to pass southeast of our area. It still brings the threat of some rainfall for a portion of Friday, but it doesn’t look like a widespread heavy rainfall event. I still like the trend for the weekend. Improvement is expected Saturday as the low pulls away, and a great late summer day is expected Sunday as high pressure builds in.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy start, then partly sunny. Highs 80-87. Humid – dew point upper 60s to near 70. Wind S increasing to 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog overnight. Lows 63-70. Humid – dew point above 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts becoming variable.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms especially RI and southeastern MA during early and mid morning. Isolated showers possible thereafter. Highs 69-74. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy evening. Mostly cloudy with areas of fog overnight. Lows 58-65. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Highs 67-74. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain evening. Areas of fog. Lows 58-65. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 20-24)

High pressure is expected to bring dry weather and above normal temperatures to the region September 20-22. A trough approaching from the west brings an increased chance of shower activity later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 25-29)

A transition to a stronger westerly flow will start to take place, but we will have to keep an eye on potential tropical activity off or near the East Coast. Temperature departure from normal expected to be above but may turn sharply cooler at the very end of the period.

64 thoughts on “Wednesday September 15 2021 Forecast (7:34AM)”

  1. Thanks TK !

    Beautiful pink sun with dark low clouds occasionally passing in front of it.

    Glad I started A/C last evening, definitely got humid overnight.

    1. I open my bedroom window first thing every morning to air room. I usually leave it open a few hours. I shut it after only about 30 min today. There was not a whole lot fresh about the air this morning.

  3. I think we can make one big picture generalization about the feature just off the coast of Africa, its not going to turn out into the open Atlantic as early as Larry did.

  12. Its days like today, I am so thankful for the new A/C on the top floor of our school.

    We would have been miserable on a day like this in the past (dp at 70F).

    So nice and cool now. Not exhausted by the weather at days end.

    1. If so, will there be another farther East? And will there be
      a tornado watch for parts of Northern New England.
      We shall see.

    1. Perhaps Maine as well. Time will tell.

      Curious to see if a tornado watch is issued. I suppose it will depend upon how things are looking a little later.

  16. The SPC did expanded the slight risk in the latest outlook to include Worcester and Hartford. This outlook will get updated around 1230 this afternoon.

  17. Some good early indications for this winter. double dip La-Nina, PV weakening. UKMET + EURO showing troughing over the NE 🙂 Just in time for myself to get back to New England in December. Hoping to hit the slopes while I am there with family + friends. Been in the 90s with heat indexs around 100-105 for the past 2 weeks here on St. Thomas though i live about 1000 feet up so its a bit cooler at my apartment.
    https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1437770611711897602

    1. Rich boundary-layer moisture also will support
      stronger 0-3 km instability from southern portions of VT/NH into far
      southern ME/northern MA. A tornado or two could occur across this
      area, especially if any more discrete cellular activity can persist.

      1. But they have NOT yet canceled the soccer game. Those NNE folks, they’re tough. I guess the farther north you go the tougher people are. I know I’m generalizing. I bet they never cancel a soccer game in Labrador, Greenland or Nunavut!

  22. Off topic, but wanted to share with the WHW folks. Bumped into a friend yesterday on Beacon Hill, who I hadn’t seen for a while. We caught up on life and were standing outside Helen’s Leather Shop – a locally owned boutique with lots of Western-style leather items, from hats to belts to gloves, and also buttons, cuff-links, jewelry accessories, and some Native American goods. He told me that 2 years ago, he was in the store and bumped into Stevie Nicks. Nicks was chatting with the store owner and said she may be interested in having a small apartment in Boston. Needless to say, I’m disappointed as Stevie hasn’t bought an apartment in Boston (she was probably just tossing ideas around – she’s a mysterious person). In any case, this got me to put take out some vinyl and play a favorite of mine, written and sung by the legendary, incomparable Stevie Nicks (she wrote the song when she was 26): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WM7-PYtXtJM

    2. Incomparable said it all, Joshua. She sure was a favorite

      I am headed to the deck soon and thanks to you will add her music and more Fleetwood Mac to my evening playlist. Thank you

    1. Ugh. Oldest and family are at Eastern States horse show in Springfield. Hope all holds off until after they head home. For any horsey folks reading, it is a great time to go. Not one spectator in the enormous arena. Hunter is this week.

      https://imgur.com/a/FT1N7wk

  24. The line segments have formed and are where they were most likely to be at the time they were expected to be there.

    With support from HRRR model, no changes to previous forecast for today / tonight.

      1. Yes indeed. Right where the best support is. Although some of the segments are already starting to outrun their best support.

        Pete B. was talking about how this would started to happen and one of the reasons he wasn’t expecting much into Metro Boston etc.

  25. As JPD said

    Severe Thunderstorm Watch
    for Worcester County

    Issued by National Weather Service
    Boston, MA
    3:43 PM EDT Wed, Sep 15, 2021

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 503 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

    IN CONNECTICUT THIS WATCH INCLUDES 2 COUNTIES

    IN NORTHERN CONNECTICUT

    HARTFORD TOLLAND

    IN MASSACHUSETTS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 4 COUNTIES

    IN CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS

    WORCESTER

    IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS

    FRANKLIN HAMPDEN HAMPSHIRE

    THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF FITCHBURG, GREENFIELD, HARTFORD, NORTHAMPTON, SPRINGFIELD, UNION, VERNON, AND WORCESTER.

    1. Turns out, however, that in Nunavut a lot of the games are played indoors. The “playing through blizzards” is a bit misleading.

      1. Well, the youtube video embedded in the link is really interesting, and it does focus on outdoor soccer way up north. Fascinating weather-related stuff.

    2. you never played soccer in a snow storm Joshua its so much fun and the ball doesnt hurt as much because you have more padding 😀

    1. A colleague of mine calls that the “carpetbomb” warning when they just warn an entire line or segment instead of focusing closer in. More common to see these days.

  29. So lines on MA NY border seem to be moving NE. More north perhaps than East. Can I assume those are not the cells that would create storms in more southern parts of MA and into CT???

    1. That is correct. If anything takes place in southern MA and CT it has yet to form, and its later timing lessens the chance of severe weather there as well.

  31. Summers swan song. Warm but with a strong wind and sun that no longer needs to be shaded by an umbrella. Does it get any better than New England weather

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