Tuesday September 21 2021 Forecast (7:14AM)

44 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 21-25)

High pressure slides offshore east of New England today and tries to hold on but gradually loses its grip through midweek. The air flow around the high and ahead of a slowly approaching trough from the west will be southeast to south, allowing the humidity and shower chances to increase, although the chance of any rainfall for one specific location at any given time will still be quite low through the daylight hours of Thursday. It is when the frontal system associated with the trough from the west gets closer that the shower chance will increase to more likely and more widespread, and right now the timing of this is favoring later Thursday night through the middle of the day Friday. Again there remains some differences in fairly reliable guidance, with some moving the showers out by late Friday and at least one model holding the shower threat in our region into the start of the weekend. Leaning toward the drying trend late Friday. This is a more optimistic outlook for drier weather for Saturday, but not high confidence.

TODAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear early. Variably cloudy late evening and overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 55-62. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of a passing shower favoring interior locations in the afternoon. More humid. Highs 71-78. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 59-66. Wind S 5-15 mph.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of a shower mainly well inland during the afternoon. Humid. Highs 73-80. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers especially overnight. Areas of fog. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Humid. Highs 68-75. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Less humid. Lows 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 26-30)

Based on the low confidence at the end of the 5-day period the confidence in this portion of the outlook remains low as well. Current idea is that a trough from the west and accompanying cold front will bring a shower chance on September 26 then drier and cooler weather September 27-28. After that we have to keep an eye out for a bit of a blocking pattern with high pressure to the north and low pressure to the south or southwest. Assuming this pattern evolves, whether we are on the drier side with high pressure in control or wetter side with the low pressure area in control remains to be seen. So the end-of-month weather is highly uncertain.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 1-5)

This forecast segment also remains low confidence as we’ve seen a couple different scenarios depicted by guidance during the last few days for early October. The idea previously was for more westerly flow. Today’s guidance suggests a continuation of a slower-moving blocked type pattern. For now I’m leaning toward the west-to-east flow idea over the slower movement setup, with high pressure in control more often than not, with fairly dry weather.

44 thoughts on “Tuesday September 21 2021 Forecast (7:14AM)”

  8. Ba-du, ba-du, ba-du, ba-du

    Do you remember dancing in September?

    Never was a cloudy day.

    Thanks, TK!

    2. My mother was 18 years old and living in Worcester at the time. She told the story of her wild walk home from school on that day.

      Her father ran a business involving paper envelopes. The building and its contents were heavily damaged.

      1. Wow. Not dissimilar from my moms memories. So so sorry to hear about your dad’s business. Can you imagine having no clue what was headed their way?

        My mom was 24 and went to Boston for the day with her mom. They took the subway back to Harvard Square but trolleys has stopped running from the square to Belmont. They decided to walk. They were about opposite Mt Auburn Cemetery and wires and trees were coming down around them. I’m guessing your mom had the same experience.

        A cab from Morse Taxi in Belmont drove by and the driver recognized them and stopped. He may well have saved both of their lives.

      1. My days of working outside May or may not be coming to an end & that includes snow storms . I’m applying for another position within my department ( another shop ) it would be 3-11 shift but the Monet would be incredible. I’ll let you all know .

      1. I’m getting a nice breeze through house which of course ratchets up my allergies. I am going to switch to shorts though. DP is just 59 here

  13. Has anyone done a door check today? Mine closed together on the tight side, but they didn’t split the door jamb.

  14. Hey can I burrow some of all of your fans to make sure future Sam remains out at sea lol. Really hope the gfs is right and the euro is out to lunch

      1. brings Sam right over me as a major hurricane the past two runs and was trending this way all of yesterday. Ensembles though show a wide range of solutions but also trended further south and west certainly not a trend I am liking.

  15. Non-weather question. We have grubs. Front lawn only. Does anyone know how long grass seed can be put down after treating for grubs. My SIL will take up dead grass and put down a thin layer of top soil.

    Thank you everyone for any and all advice

    1. Depending on the type of grub killer you can seed right after. The 24hr killer should eliminate most of them and they will be long dead by the time your seeds take root. Just water the grub killer in really good.

  16. If that system eventually becomes Sam (it probably will), I’m not sure the pattern will allow that thing to enter the Caribbean.

    1. Lets hope.!! I cant afford a hurricane impacting me in the USVI. If it slides to my south fine just in the Virgin Islands. Can’t afford to not be able to finish my field work because of a hurricane ripping up the seagrass.

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