DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 23-27)
High pressure hangs on just enough to today to keep the region’s weather similar to yesterday, even with a little more sun and less shower activity, kind of a taste of late summer weather on this first full day of autumn. Finally, that slow-moving front we’ve been talking about all week pushes in from west to east during Friday with more numerous showers and a few heavier downpours and even rumbles of thunder possible, but the overall area of rainfall should be undergoing a weakening trend as it moves through, so I’m not looking for prolonged heavy rain / flooding issues with this particular system. The frontal boundary itself will be very slow to exit the coastal areas where there is still a chance of a few showers early Saturday, but overall the weekend should be on the dry side between that front and the approach of a swirl of low pressure via the Great Lakes. That feature does increase our shower chances again later Sunday, especially later in the day or at night, before exiting Monday with dry weather again.
TODAY: Partly sunny. Brief passing showers possible, mainly this afternoon favoring RI and eastern CT through interior MA and southwestern NH. Humid. Highs 73-80. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of a passing shower. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Showers likely. Chance of a thunderstorm. Humid. Highs 68-75. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers, favoring eastern areas. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 58-65. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers from RI and eastern-southeastern MA to the NH Seacoast. Humid eastern areas, drying to the west. Highs 70-77. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers mainly late-day favoring western areas. Highs 70-77. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers, possibly a thunderstorm. Lows 58-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 67-73. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 28 – OCTOBER 2)
A trough will be moving across the region the last few days of September with a disturbance bringing shower chances mainly later September 28 into part of September 29 based on current timing. High pressure is expected to build in with fair weather for the start of October along with more seasonably cooler weather.
DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 3-7)
This remains a lower-than-average confidence forecast with major differences in guidance, but for now staying with the idea of high pressure dominant with a fairly dry and seasonable to mild weather pattern.
Thanks, TK.
Good morning and thank you TK
Thanks TK.
Marginal risk for tomorrow
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/public/fema/images/fema01_swody2.png
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_0600_torn.gif
Thank you, TK. Hope your day is a good one!
0Z Euro brings the next hurricane threat closer to PR and the Virgin Islands, but stlll a miss.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2021092300/ecmwf_uv850_vort_eatl_8.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2021092300/ecmwf_uv850_vort_eatl_9.png
and places it in a dangerous position for the SE USA in 10 days. We shall see. Other guidance takes it well out to see long before this point.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=seus&pkg=uv850_vort&runtime=2021092300&fh=240
Trough in really bad position at this point
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2021092300/ecmwf_z500a_us_11.png
A long way out and the EURO appears to be an outlier at this point, BUT this bears watching for sure.
Thank you, TK.
Thanks TK !
Thanks, TK
Thanks TK
Golfing in Hyannis tomorrow, what’s an estimate on timing of showers down there?
Thanks TK.
Thanks TK.
Drought conditions cause very low water levels in
Lake Powel and Lake Meade.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/23/weather/lake-powell-power-generation-outlook/index.html
We have a new Tropical Storm, Sam.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
NHC track favors a more Northerly route
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT18/refresh/AL182021_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/145652_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
A 5.9 magnitude earth quake struck outside of Melbourne, Australia. This report says 6.0, but I saw other reports of 5.9
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/earthquake-magnitude-56-strikes-near-melbourne-australia-gfz-2021-09-21/
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/earthquake-tremor-felt-across-melbourne-and-regional-victoria/news-story/f8dca1048e48a500e3308dabedfdb1c1
We just had a torrential downpour….I had dozed while reading, but grandson said it was crazy and even before rain ended the sun came out. It registered 0.28 in what had to be a very short time since I wasn’t asleep for long.
Still marginal risk for tomorrow
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/public/fema/images/fema01_swody2.png
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_1730_torn.gif
12Z GFS Brings SAM well off shore of New England, but has
some sort of weird interaction and delivers rain to us,
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021092312/gfs_mslp_pcpn_eus_38.png
CMC way off shore as well, only farther off.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2021092312/gem_mslp_wind_eus_41.png
Working on my weekend outlook now, but I can tell you that based on the 12z models, my forecast will not be as optimistic as TK’s for Saturday night and early Sunday. The GFS/NAM/CMC have a wave of low pressure riding up the offshore cold front, bringing a period of rain in for Saturday night and Sunday morning.
There goes my fishing trip for Sunday AM. 🙂
Fishing is best in the rain……of so much dad said when we were standing outside getting drenched. Oddly, I don’t recall catching more fish than other days 😉
Fishing in the rain is miserable, unless it is just a light nuisance rain. And I have NEVER caught more fish in the rain. Cloudy. drizzly or inttermittant light rain is good.
Pouring rain = no good.
Hahahaha. I’d sure agree.
I don’t think you’ll need to cancel the fishing trip. You may need a slight delay in it, possibly.
Thanks, TK!
My weekend outlook is now up: https://stormhq.blog/2021/09/23/weekend-outlook-september-24-27-2021/
12Z Euro, once again, a little bit too close for comfort.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2021092312/ecmwf_mslpa_us_11.png
Some interesting projections for sure. Seems to be the outlier for now.
CPC’s 6-10, 8-14, and seemingly forever-experimental 3-4 week outlooks all have drier than average weather for our region.
18z GFS says “Oops never mind!” about the additional wave Saturday night.
Got dark here. Some sprinkles. Very dark down CT way.
What are the chances the kids can get their football game in tomorrow night in Middleborough? Kickoff 7 pm.
50/50. That line will be weakening as it comes through, so at that time it will depend on distribution and location.
New weather post…