Saturday September 25 2021 Forecast (7:18AM)

58 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 25-29)

If you have outdoor plans today, you can likely pull them off with no more than the potential for a minor interruption from a passing shower if you are in southeastern MA, and without any interruption anywhere else. Some of our guidance has advertised a more gloom & doom scenario making it look like at least a partial wash-out for today with that wave of low pressure. These forecasts will not be accurate and even some of those models have now backed off and are showing a more reasonable solution. How this thing evolves is that the front crawled into the region yesterday, sitting right over our eastern coastal waters now, will be the focus for some redevelopment of showers with the diurnal heating that takes place today. These will be scattered and relatively small, moving northward along the frontal boundary. But as a low pressure circulation to the south gets organized and starts its northward movement, the first thing we will see is that frontal boundary come back to the west, but it’s not going to do so all that quickly. I think any shower activity that occurs will be confined to Cape Cod and parts of southeastern MA through dusk with any other shower activity offshore, and a more widespread area of showers developing west of the low pressure wave, but still to the south of New England. The main impact from this is likely to be during the overnight hours to the sunrise hour of Sunday, with most widespread rainfall in RI and eastern MA, perhaps southeastern NH eventually. But while that frontal boundary has never really been in a hurry to move, the wave of low pressure moving up along it will be cruising at a good clip, and once beyond our latitude it will finally swing that frontal boundary eastward and outta here, and after the iffy start Sunday morning, the rest of the day will feature great weather with incoming dry air – something many of you have been waiting for after several days of higher humidity! It is at this point that we will see a westerly flow take over the weather pattern with some nice dry air in the region for Monday. However, with a trough of low pressure moving through the Northeast, a wave of low pressure is going to be traveling through it, and will bring a warm front / cold front combination across our area Monday night and Tuesday, with again some opportunities for showers. There will be some timing tweaks needed for the fronts and shower threats as we get closer to it. When we reach Wednesday, with the trough still over us but high pressure over the Great Lakes and the surface front having departed, we will receive a delivery of fresh polar air via Canada and it will be a genuine “feel of fall” kind of day.

TODAY: Early morning valley, swamp, and bog fog dissipating by mid morning. Sunniest eastern CT, central MA, and southwestern to south central NH with variable clouds RI, eastern MA, and southeastern NH into afternoon then a cloudier trend all areas by later in the afternoon. Isolated showers this afternoon mainly MA South Coast to South Shore. Humid, especially eastern areas. Highs 71-78. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers during the evening. Numerous to widespread showers overnight. Areas of fog. Humid. Lows 61-68. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy early morning with lingering showers eastern MA and southeastern NH. Sun and passing clouds from mid morning on. Drying. Highs 70-77. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 67-74. Wind W 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

MONDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Chance of a shower late. Lows 55-62. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 65-72. Wind SW to NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 48-55. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH and gusty.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 62-69. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 30 – OCTOBER 4)

There are a lot of uncertainties at play in this portion of the forecast. I remain cautiously optimistic that high pressure will keep us generally dry with the feel of early fall to start, then a bit of a warm-up to follow that. However, there will be some “weather bullies” hanging around outside the “playground”. We’ll need to keep an eye specifically on the evolution of low pressure to the south of New England. Whether tropical or non-tropical, this system could end up further north than much guidance has, and suddenly our fair weather outlook would not be so fair anymore. We also need to keep an eye on tropical activity further out in the Atlantic, not for direct impact but for interactions, and of course ocean / coastal impacts as well. And even by the end of the period the jet stream says “hey don’t forget about me!” and may try to send a disturbance our way.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 5-9)

A continuation of the same general idea. There are still some high pressure favorings on the guidance, but enough “things that can go wrong” out there. I lean toward the dry pattern but this could very well change.

58 thoughts on “Saturday September 25 2021 Forecast (7:18AM)”

  2. Thanks TK.

    “Bog fog” reminds me of Barry Burbank. I sure miss seeing him on air. Hope he is doing well and enjoying his retirement. 🙂

    I hope Harvey stays on at least through one more winter. He is the last of the tv met “dinosaurs” if you will. 😉

    1. That’s where I got it. I believe I told him once that I occasionally use that phrase in my own forecasts. 🙂

  5. My youngest introduced me to a feel good show on Apple TV. I was hesitant but am glad I listened. I’d highly recommend Ted Lasso. I told her it didn’t feel like a binge watching show. After five episodes, I had to force myself to stop and go to sleep as it was nearing midnight.

      1. I didn’t either. There is a free week but it’s not expensive. We have family sharing so one family member was already signed up for it so we all have access. Although, I don’t think your devices are Apple, so I don’t know how that works

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.

    What time do you think the rain stops in the morning? I may want to head out around 7:30 AM or so. Not sure I am going fishing just yet. It all depends. Many thanks

  9. Thank you, TK.

    In the American League, this is the most exciting race to get into the playoffs in a very long time. It’s a 4 team race for 2 spots, with about a week to go. The Yankees could wind up in the number 1 position (home field advantage for the wild card play-in game) with the Sox (temporarily at least) out of the playoffs entirely by tomorrow night. On the other hand, if the Sox win the next two games, the reverse could happen. Unfortunately, in my view, this epic battle is not what’s being talked about on sports radio. In fact, sports radio – which used to be a form of unwinding for me – has mostly morphed into non-sports talk. It would be one thing if they talked about football because it’s more popular than baseball. I’m fine with that. But, they don’t even talk about actual football games anymore. It’s almost exclusively about the stupid soap opera surrounding Belichick and Brady. I’ve never cared for soap operas of any kind, and certainly dislike this faux (contrived and media-driven) nonsense.

    1. As for the Pats “soap opera”, I absolutely agree. As for the Red Sox, it’s back to the normal red & white uniforms I guess since they lost badly last night. Too bad as I have gotten use to those yellow & blues. Oh well.

    2. One correction – the Sox cannot be entirely out of the playoffs tomorrow night. The worst that could happen would be that they’d be tied with Toronto and Seattle for the final wild card spot. Given that the Red Sox already won the season series against both (and the Yankees too), they would have the edge over the other two, and would host any play-in game to get to the Wild Card should it come to that.

      I will be at today’s game, and am very happy that the forecast doesn’t look as pessimistic as it did even 24 hours ago.

      BTW, tomorrow, even with the nice weather, will be a perfect day to sit on the sofa all day if you’re a Boston sports fan:

      1pm Patriots/Saints on Fox
      5pm Bruins/Capitals on NHL Network (1st preseason game)
      7pm Sox/Yankees on ESPN

    1. Never thought of that, as that could potentially happen for the final wild card spot. Hope it won’t be necessary.

      I was in my first year of college in 1978 and was able to watch the early afternoon game since I only had morning classes that particular day. I remember the game well, but NOT too fondly.

      Monday Oct. 2, 1978

      It only took 26 years later to get our revenge. 😉

  12. Will Aaron judge or Giancarlo Stanton be Bucky dent if that one game playoff happens? If the season ended today the game would be in Boston.

  13. Thanks, SAK, for the correction. For some reason I thought the Jays had won last night. Clearly, I was wrong.

    In any case, it’s a really exciting finish to an interesting season.

    Enjoy today’s game, SAK.

  14. just had a shower pass through. Seem to be slightly increasing in coverage in SE mass and out into the ocean south of us.

  15. whoa …. and I see the NHC has put out numbers accordingly …. Sam´s satellite presentation suddenly looks amazing.

    Perfectly centered eye in a very impressive central dense overcast with a stadium effect eye.

      1. Sure is ….. I think that 5pm advisory is going to be a lot stronger.

        I know they can make satellite estimates off the dvorak and other stuff.

        140 + and sub 940 mb at 5 pm ??

        1. Tom, what is the dvorak? I’m familiar with the brilliant Czech composer, Antonin Dvorak, but unfamiliar with the meteorological term.

  17. Thanks TK. It’s been a beautiful day here in CT with 100 percent sunshine. I do see some cloudiness now beginning to back in on the eastern horizon.

  19. 12z Euro, GFS and CMC all way out to sea with Sam though the Euro does something funky with an energy transfer from the hurricane forming a low pressure off the mid Atlantic. GFS has some interactions with tropical moisture as well later in its run and backs a tropical system into New England near the end. You can easily see how the forecast of a generally dry pattern in the long range could bust, as TK alludes to above.

  22. Thanks, TK.

    Just returned from a gorgeous walk by Boston Harbor: dark gray cloud deck, but brilliant low sunshine lighting the boats and then the best-defined rainbow ever, in its full arc. Perfect temperature, light breeze — just fantastic.

  23. Wow, what a huge blast by Stanton and a clutch hit for the Yankees. All tied up again in the standings! This one is going down to the wire.

    1. That was huge. Yankees now have the momentum that the Sox had going into the series.

      After starting 7 and 0 against the Yankees this season, it’s been a struggle for the Red Sox in recent head-to-head games. Got swept by NY in August and may be swept in this series.

      1. If the Yankees had THIS lineup all year and Stanton had been hitting this way all year, they´d currently have about 105 wins. The Sox and everyone else are now playing a very different team.

    2. Pivetta shut Yankees out through 5 and Sox had held Yankees to 1 run through 7.

      Home team, not facing a Garrett Cole has to score more than 2 runs. Had to have a much bigger lead to hand over to a so-so bullpen.

      Thankfully, Yanks-Blue Jays play next. Sox just have to watch out for Seattle Mariners.

  24. Agree, Tom. The Yankees are the best team (on paper) among the 4 that are contending for the wild card. It shouldn’t be nearly as close as it is. What’s baffled me is the Yankees losing so many games to the Orioles this season, of all teams. It’s also what I love about baseball. Even the worst team wins about 35% of the time, and can quite effectively play the role of spoiler, even against good opponents. And the very best win around 60%-65% of the time, so they’re bound to lose games. By the way, this is also a reason why I don’t view next week as necessarily favorable to the Red Sox. The Sox may very well lose at least 2 of their 6 games against the Orioles and Nationals, on the road.

  25. The Yankees were 11-8 against the Orioles. In addition they lost five games with a two or more run lead in the 8th inning or later this year. If they had a better record against the Orioles and didn’t blow this five games they led late the Yankees would be comfortably in a playoff spot right now.

  26. I think Plymouth, MA may have totaled 4 inches of rain btwn yesterday afternoon and overnight and I´m guessing that might be true of some other south shore communities.

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