Sunday September 26 2021 Forecast (8:03AM)

22 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 26-30)

We’ve reached the final 5 days of September, and the final moments of the impact from a low pressure wave along that slow moving frontal boundary that has been around for the past 2 days. A decent slug of rain and some embedded thunderstorms visited eastern MA, RI, and southeastern NH overnight and very early this morning, and is rapidly exiting as I write. The canopy of cloudiness (and a few remaining showers) left behind will be exiting from southwest to northeast during this morning, turning today into something looking far different than it started out as drier air arrives. A small area of high pressure helping to bring this dry air in will hang around through Monday, another very nice day, dry but on the mild side. And then it’s time for a bit of a change, which will be signaled by scattered showers as a trough swings through and a cold front crosses the region during Tuesday. Behind this will be the coolest push of air so far this early autumn season for the middle of the week, with the help of high pressure building from Canada into the Great Lakes region, and a broad area of low pressure east of New England. The only thing we will have to watch for is the potential for a pop up instability shower one or both of those days, but odds are against it based on the evidence at my disposal at this time.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy with lingering scattered showers southeastern NH and eastern MA until the 8 a.m. hour except Cape Cod through 9 a.m. hour, otherwise increasing sun from southwest to northeast later this morning. Sunshine and passing clouds midday-afternoon. Lowering humidity. Highs 70-77. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, especially midday on.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 52-59. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind W 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

MONDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Chance of a shower late. Lows 55-62. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 65-72. Wind SW to NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of showers evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 50-57. Wind NW 5-15 MPH and gusty.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 62-69. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 47-54. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 61-68. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 1-5)

As mentioned yesterday, there will be “things to watch” that threaten what otherwise can be a fairly dry start to October with cool air followed by moderating temperatures. The biggest threat to the fair weather outlook will be the evolution of low pressure south of New England, which seems as if it would be more of a threat toward the end of this 5-day period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 6-10)

There is evidence on medium range guidance still that the same battle between high pressure near or over the Northeast and low pressure to the south may continue into if not all the way through this period as well. This leaves a lot of uncertainty as this means the weather can range from unsettled / stormy (if low pressure is close enough) to tranquil (if high pressure is in firm enough control). So this will be one of those instances that you can hear the forecaster say “I really have no idea what the weather is going to be like.”. 😉

22 thoughts on “Sunday September 26 2021 Forecast (8:03AM)”

  2. Thanks TK.

    If I had to leave for work 30 minutes earlier, I would have been soaked! That rain was really hauling away from Boston, thankfully.

  4. I have noticed little movement in the foliage department with no real hints of serious color change around the city, at least in my travels. Usually as early as mid-August there are some rogue trees that turn early. No such happening this time.

    A correlation to our upcoming winter perhaps? A late foliage this fall?

    1. Since trees do not pre-react to coming conditions and rather react to current and past conditions, there is zero correlation between foliage now and upcoming winter.

    1. I will be singing that song all day. It’s a great song to have stuck in your head!

      Did you get your fishing in?

    1. I was just thinking about this. Awesome! Thanks!

      I do miss the full-program in-person versions but this will do nicely this year. 🙂

    2. For a small regional conference like the SNE, that is an exceptional line-up of talent. And the fact that it’s free is a bonus. A great testament to you all on the organizing team. Unfortunately, a lot of the larger national conferences (AMS, NWA, etc.) have become extremely bloated with costs making them all but out of reach for “ordinary” folks, even the virtual ones.

      I miss the in person SNE as well but if my schedule allows will definitely try to attend on 11/13.

  11. Can’t bear to watch a Yankee sweep. Alas, the Sox don’t have a bullpen, let alone a good one. They also can’t field well. While I want the Sox to make the playoffs, in some ways they need a kick in the pants – especially upper management – and being knocked out of the playoffs may be the right medicine.

      1. It may be pre-season, but the Bruins were my #1 priority.

        Red Sox. Eh. I’ll never complain after what we’ve seen since 2004.

        Pats? Eh. I’ll never complain after the years Brady gave us. Mac’s young. Things will get better. It’s just one game. They won last week. They lost this week. About how I figured it might go. Next week will be fun. They have a legit shot to beat TB / TB.

        Go Bruins!

        1. Mac has tremendous potential. I said elsewhere, he dealt with what Brady did …lack of support. Same reason and one Brady asked for repeatedly.

          I am sorry for the rest but agree that Boston has little to complain about re sports. I am truly looking forward to Oct 3. TK, you and I agree most always re the world of sports.

      2. True, though BC is now 4 and 0. Harvard’s Tim Murphy won an Ivy League record 180th game!

        Don’t have high hopes for the Patriots, where mediocrity reigns for the most part, so the loss to a better Saints team didn’t sting that much. I see the Pats as being an under-talented team; across the board, really. Some fair and maybe a couple of good signings in the off-season, but nobody (and no aspect of the team) stands out. And you need stand-out players to win.

        The Sox series was depressing. Sox have some really good talent, though an inconsistent roster. I hate it when the Sox lose to the Yankees in important games. Brings up bad and painful memories from the 1970s, but also the 90s and early 2000s. If there is one team in sports that strikes fear in me, gives me nightmares (yet I respect a tremendous amount) it’s the Yankees.

        I did not expect to be swept. Add to that two straight crushing defeats. But, you can’t win against good teams without a bullpen. And the Sox just don’t have one. Seriously, do you trust anyone in their bullpen? Barnes and Whitlock, early in the season. And that’s it. It’s a poorly constructed pen. I pin the blame on Bloom for that.

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