DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 27 – OCTOBER 1)
A warm front crosses the region today but most of the shower activity associated with it goes across northern New England, leaving us with a mild sun/cloud mix kind of day. A cold front drops through New England from northwest to southeast tonight through Tuesday with little activity on it initially, but a recharge arrives in the form of an upper level disturbance from the west, meaning that southern MA, CT, and RI stand the greatest chance of shower activity from this front during the day Tuesday, with even a thunderstorm possible in a few areas. This front pushes offshore Tuesday night and ushers in a cool air mass for the middle of the week, but with an upper level trough moving across the region and surface high pressure back to the west and north, this leaves the door open for a few pop up showers Wednesday, and even a few more solid areas of showers moving through Wednesday night into Thursday with the help of a disturbance. High pressure edges closer as the trough pulls off to the east by Friday, with the first day of October likely featuring some diurnal clouds popping up but this time not leading to anything more than an isolated brief light shower in a few locations on an otherwise dry and pleasant though breezy day.
TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. A couple showers possible southern NH to northeastern MA. Highs 70-77. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20+ MPH.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower possible, mainly across southern NH. Lows 57-64. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers, favoring southern MA southward, with a slight chance of a thunderstorm mainly south of I-90. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 47-54. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny start then a sun/cloud mix with a pop up shower possible. Highs 61-68. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 50-57. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers during the morning. Partly cloudy with an isolated shower possible during the afternoon. Highs 60-67. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 46-53. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Sunny start then a sun/cloud mix with a brief light shower possible. Highs 60-67. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 2-6)
High pressure is expected to bring dry weather for the October 2-3 weekend with coolest weather Saturday and slightly moderating temperatures Sunday. Watching early the following week for at least temporary impact from low pressure to the south with the possibility of some rainfall during the early part of the October 4-6 window then drying out again with generally seasonable temperatures. We’ll also be dealing with increased ocean swells / surf in coastal areas from far-offshore Hurricane Sam.
DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 7-11)
The same general pattern may be in place with high pressure having a tendency to be near and north of the region while areas of low pressure to the south and disturbances to the west have to be watched. The idea at this time it to lean dry with near to above normal temperatures for the predominant pattern.
https://stormhq.blog/2021/09/27/weekly-outlook-september-27-october-3-2021/?fbclid=IwAR1hi4eHOYOXrv_aLVYJl4xqPCKjsEaAqJ1RDsQWVC2vWgXN5z2J6lkqzcA
Thanks TK !
Thanks TK.
Good morning and thank you TK.
Thank you, TK.
Thanks, TK.
Thanks TK! Great grass growing weather, threw down some seed over the weekend and just watching those babies grow!
We seeded also. Hopefully, these guys will grow also.
Turkeys (7) are now dining on our grass seed and our neighbors seed. Arghhhhh
Birds always took some of mine too. This year I top dressed with peat moss. Problem mostly solved
I always do layers because of the birds & it seems to work . Have you ever used Jonathan Green
Thanks TK.
Thanks TK.
It seems that we can never go more than two days in a row without rainfall somewhere in SNE.
So far, radar looks much more robust than forecast by
models. We shall see.
HRRR is not even close and the 12Z 3KM NAM isn’t much better.
1st icing event of the season on top of Mt Washington.
https://twitter.com/MWObs/status/1442416387448885248?s=20
Isn’t this even a little late for this? 🙂
This is the 2nd latest into the season that the Mountain had their 1st 32-degree reading. The record is October 1, set in 2015. The mean date is August 21.
It should be noted that the freeze season starts with August 1, and MWN did drop to 32 on July 31. If you use July 1 as the start date, then the 32 on July 31 is only 1 day later than the mean of July 30.
Thank you SAK. yes, this is what I thought.
Thanks, TK…
Remembering Gloria on this day in 1985.
Thanks Captain. The only weather date that sticks in my mind every year is February 6-7, 1978. The Blizzard!
I remember it well. Thanks for the memory
Today is the anniversary of Gloria, but its what happened a year later on the same date that I always think about. The day Metallica got in a bush crash and bass player Cliff Burton was killed.
https://youtu.be/za3petSnBI0
bus crash, not bush crash.
I have a difference of opinion with the majority of local media as of late afternoon.
They hold showers off until tomorrow afternoon / evening.
They will be around in the morning.
On the forecasts I’m writing right now, I have them developing between 8-11am.
Note tonight that its generally 65F to 70F at 9pm.
Could be a long time til its that mild at this hour again.
Perhaps a warm spell in October to accomplish it at the late evening hour ?
About to cool off in the meantime.
Yep. 65 here at 11:00.
Maybe a freeze to kill mosquitoes??????
I don’t think we’ll have that 25 – 27F night inland yet, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see some mid-upper 30s inland and that localized coldest spot to get towards 33F or 34F.
New weather post…