Tuesday AM Update

109 Comments

7:21AM

Updating for time period.

A little more snow than forecast, by 1/2 inch to 1 inch in some areas. Just over 1.5 here in Woburn. Still a minor event, but given we’ve had pretty much no events,  it’s more significant to some people not used to it.

The remainder is from the previous post…

Milder air has moved in and will result in rain showers today. A strong cold front will cross the region at night, setting us up for a windy and colder Wednesday but with dry weather.

Chilly/dry weather will last into Thursday, and a weak system moving in at night will cause some snow showers. This will get out of here by early Friday with another fair but chilly day.

There are some questions for the weekend, and some potential changes to the thinking on the last post. I’m not quite sure how things are going to shake out yet, but some reliable guidance has shifted the track of Saturday’s disturbance further south, possibly increasing the chance that it will be snow. Sunday’s warm-up may also be delayed behind this system if a north or northeast wind sets up, as is shown on the same rather reliable guidance. But with this still many days away, I’ll just put out a low confidence outlook leaning in the direction of this guidance for now.

Boston Area Forecast…

THIS AFTERNOON: Partly sunny then cloudy. Rain returns later. High 42-47. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain early. Slight chance of a snow shower late. Low 30-35. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 35-40. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers at night. Low 14. High 32.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 33.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow/mix. Low 23. High 35.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Low 29. High 39.

MONDAY: Sunny. Low 29. High 49.

109 thoughts on “Tuesday AM Update”

  1. Well I have a book that I record every snowstorm and this one goes into the book at just under an inch 0.9, yes it’s about an inch but it was defiantly a weak inch, temp is 34.9 and roads r clear, I’m trying to think if I ever went a winter season not using the snowblower. Have a good day and thanks tk 🙂

    1. Charlie – my husband hasn’t even checked our snow blower to see if it’s working. I figure we’ll get walloped and it won’t work.

  2. TK – I’m glad to hear that you have friends and family who read but don’t post. My son reads all of the time and I was a bit concerned that might not fit into the rules.

    1. I forgot two questions – well one question and an ob (not weather related)

      I am thinking of switching the blog I have to word press. I use Google blogger and it has its problems. Do you mind if I ask if you use the free blog option for Word Press? I love the feature where we can see on the right if there are new people who have posted.

      Also, have you thought of a disclaimer placed somewhere just to protect you. Not that I think there is a reason but just since the blog is out there it can’t hurt. I have one on my blog and it isn’t even public.

      and so I don’t take up another comment box, I sure do hope rainshine was able to take her husband to the procedure today.

      1. Hi, Vicki – no, unfortunately I did not. Late yesterday, Marc decided to postpone the procedure due to the possibility of slippery conditions. We did not expect that much snow (we got about 3 inches of snow in Sudbury) but more of an icy situation. As it turns out, there wasn’t much if any ice around here but the time we would have had to leave would have been very slippery. Neither of us needed any extra stress. Perhaps it was for the best, as next Thurs. he has cataract surgery. He is very nervous about that – just hope we don’t have any weather issues, as I will have to drive to Waltham! And thanks for asking.

        1. rainshine – I am a firm believer that things happen as they should and it appears that they may have in Marc’s case. My father-in-law was notorious about not going to the doctor. He needed cataract surgery for years before he finally had it. Once it was over, he kept saying he didn’t know why he’d waited. I hear that from many and hope that helps ease Marc’s understandable concern. It seems he is having his share of worries – you also.

  3. Well the 00z EURO loses the storm for Saturday as a southern slider, very different then the 06 GFS which has it very close to us. I would clearly go with the EURO at this point unless I see something else at this point.

  4. Also keep trends in mind as many storms have trended west and north this year so another thing to keep an eye on.

  6. It is nice to wake up to snow on the ground as it actually looks like winter. I am going to enjoy it since it will be gone later today. The Thursday night into Friday storm system still looks MINOR but just like this one I would not be surprised if some areas have advisory level snow. The Saturday one is the classic battle of the models between the GFS and EURO. Lets just say there is POTENTIAL but I feel just a bit more confident that we see something Thursday night.

    1. Hmmm…. What is that strange white stuff on the ground???

      I didn’t take a measurement, but after wiping off the car and factoring in
      considerable melting, I would say that we came in with a solid 2 inches in JP.

      Hadi, do you agree?

      As far as this weekend, I’ll comment a bit later. Pretty busy at work
      today.

      Thanks all for the kind words.

      1. Old Salty, I thought the same after clearing off my car this morning~about 2″ here in Brighton. I have not done so yet, but I might actually have to brush the dust and cobwebs off the shovel this morning. I was able to get my car into the driveway (slight incline) but that was only with a running start. Needless to say, I don’t have all wheel drive. As a matter of fact I have rear wheel drive. Not sure which is better in the snow, front or rear? But, I can attest that my LS was definately not made for traveling snow. Then again neither was my ’96 Taurus SHO which had front wheel drive. Next vehicle will have AWD, no doubt about it!!!! Finally, I sure hope that the GFS is right on about Saturday’s storm. Sorry about the chatty post morning 🙂

  7. Well at least it will not be a snowless January and we will not go the whole winter without seeing accumulating snow.
    Old Salty look forward to hearing your thoughts later on today.

  8. I would agree OS I was think between 1.5 and 2 inches.

    Saturday storm potential is very interesting, I think the euro will end being north in future cycles. Too me nothing blocking it from coming north. We shall see!

  10. I just can’t get going at work today. Must have been the long weekend.
    Took a look at a bunch of models for Saturday. Some serious divergence going on, so it is really tough to figure out what, if anything will happen.

    The 0Z EURO doesn’t have much. The 06Z GFS has something, although not overly big. UKMET and CANADIAN don’t have anything. The JMA has something, although not big. The most interesting model is the DGEX which parks a nice little system
    just to the South of us, but actually “may” be too warm.

    Here is the DGEX:

    http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/DGEXEAST_6z/f108.gif

    Putting it all together along with trends this season, looks like we will have
    an event on Saturday. “Could” be all snow, but it may go over to rain.
    Probably qpf in the range of .4 to .6 inch.

    Something to watch. We need to see the 12Z EURO, GFS and GEM. Perhaps by then, there will be a clearer picture of what is going on.

  11. Also for Thursday clipper the 12Z NAM has not secondary storm forming so really nothing more then snow showers at this point.

    OS I am thinking the 6Z GFS shows some decent snows for Sat, do you not agree. What I do not see is anything warm for Sat ie, either a total miss or snow, but I do not believe anything rain is involved. I think we need to see more data. Very interested in what the 12zGFS and 12Z EURO have to say.

    1. Hadi,

      My bad. When I viewed total qpf for the GFS, I must have used an
      incorrect date. Yes it does show a decent amount, however, I believe It does
      also show rain getting invloved. I think rain is definitely a possible player
      in this event, should it materialize.

      As you say, the 12Z runs should be interesting.

      Sorry for my mistake.

  12. BTW very powerful system in the NW over the next 24 hours, Seattle expecting near a foot and in the mountains they will measuring in multiple feet!!!!

  13. first time i took out the shovels this year . about 2 inches in the yard and driveway.
    some natural snow for the sleeding hill. I have a question if i already had man made snow on the ground would that make snow accumulate quicker because i measured 3 inches on my sleeding hill and 2 inches else where. I got natural snow for the hill i am happy . i also shoveled snow on my drive way to an area next to the hill so i can use it later on. I have another question would putting a tarp over the snow protect it from the rain

    1. Matt, I would say it would protect the snow from the rain some what. You want to make sure you remove the tarp before the sun comes out.

  15. today: light rain late cloudy early rising temperatures through the day highs in the low 40s
    tonight mostly cloudy with rain showers in the evening temperatures steady in the upper 30s
    wednesday sunny and breezy temperatures falling into the mid 20s by 3pm
    wednesday night. back to normal for now . clear lows in the low 10s
    thursday partly sunny highs in the upper 20s
    thursday night. cloudy with lows in the upper 10s
    friday mostly sunny highs in the low 30s
    friday night partly cloudy lows inthe mid 10s
    saturday cloudy lows inthe low 30s
    saturday night cloudy lows in the low 20s
    sunday mostly sunny highs in the upper 30s
    sunday night mostly cloudy lows in the high 20s to low 30s
    monday partly sunny and warm highs in the loww40s
    monday night clear lows in the low 30s
    It is going to be warming up after this weekend 🙁

  18. wow Mt. Mansfields stake/stowe is only 34 inches. last year at this time there was 148 inches.
    114 inches difference. with snow deapth of 24 inches. at least they have all but 1 trail open

        1. Now I think that an off-shore system may suck some
          of the energy for Thursday night clipper. We’ll see.

    1. That’s just about what the 12Z GFS comes in with. It does have a redevelopment, but too far North for any kind of significant snow here.

      Oh well, onto Saturday. When we are waiting, these model runs are oH Sooo Slooooow!!

  26. OS yes the it develops too far north… still something to keep an eye bc these clippers are famous for big changes IMO.

    1. Track still gets the 850 MB 0C line to near or just North of Boston Area.
      And total Qpf is “about” .5 inches or so. With trending this Winter, Odds
      favor a change to rain with this event. Just my humble opinion. Plenty of
      time for changes.

      All-in-all, not a very powerful system, but for this season it would be a
      block buster! Lol

        1. Btw, If you click on the above link and hit “L” it will
          advance the map 3 hours and if you hit “J” it will
          revert back 3 hours, so you can follow the progress
          of the changeover.

          Of course, this is the GFS and it is still what, 110 or so hours out.

  28. Well it appears everyone got more snow than me, a matter of fact my snow is gone, watching these next few systems to see if we can break this snow drought ughh

  29. I would bet that a compromise will occur between the EURO and GFS and I would think that all snow scenario in the Boston area.

    Its sad when we are excited about .50QPF!! LOL

            1. I got just under an inch but it’s long gone now, it’s like it never snowed, it reminds of the south 🙂

    3. Hadi,

      You very well may be correct. Interesting to see the 12Z EURO.

      BUT, what I fear is the trending we have seen all season where what looked
      like a great track ended up moving farther North and West than originally
      forecast.

      I know that you are thinking that the Euro will trend farhter North and
      the GFS will trend farther South. As you said a compromise. Given the
      season to date, I don’t see that happening.

      It will either be OTS or a changeover to rain. No? Lol

  34. I used my snow shovel for the first time since last winter. I did not really need it for the pre-Halloween storm. The shovel is now in my front hallway…at the ready for more to come! 🙂

    Btw…Henry Margusity is calling for Big Daddy storm come mid-February. Maybe it will be a Valentine’s Day one ala 1940.

      1. I know, how the heck does he come up with that. The only thing is he is betting on -NAO and a pattern change.

  36. I’ll just keep Saturday’s potential snow event on the back burner for now. What ever falls won’t stick around too long as there will not be any cold air behind it.

    I was quite excited to use my shovel this morning, especially to make a big snow pile to make it last because the snow is melting quickly.

    Based on this current pattern, I don’t think Thursday’s event will be much of an issue.

  37. Well the 12Z EURO has the similar track to yesterday’s run but much less QPF. Still much further north vs. the 00z EURO, but not far enough to give more then a light snowfall.

  38. 12z ECWMF shows a 2-3″ type snow event on a line from Hartford to Boston and Southward.Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Later transitions to some rain with another wave and more warm air. This is the output verbatim and not a forecast….

  40. OS are you taking about the storms for next week? I do not see an inside runner or GLC until later next week.

  41. Does anyone still have snow on the ground?? I’m just curious if it’s gone as quick as it was gone here

      1. about 1 inch in my back yard. covered my hill with a tarp lets see what happens. Drizzle/freezing drizzle falling here in billerica.

  42. I’ve been reading this blog and I’m going to try to post for the first time….but in Westborough we received around 1.75 inches of snow and currently have about .5 inches left. It melted away quite quickly…

      1. Thanks! This is quite exciting….it’s the first time that my comment hasn’t been stuck in the limbo of moderation. And I meant to say I’ve been reading this blog *for a while.

        1. Shreedhar, your earlier posts were found recently on a page that for whatever reason I could not access. So they were discovered very late. Apologies to you. Welcome to the blog. Hope you enjoy it!

  44. Nearing 50F in Buffalo…..think the temps are going up this evening until fropa.

    Is Logan above 3 inches for the season ? If so, sorry Longshot. 🙂

  47. Good afternoon all. A few NOTES. No need to take notes. 😉

    – If you are new and your comment(s) are not approved yet. Be patient. A few of them have gone into some alternate universe apparently. But whatever that was is fixed. If there is an approval delay it just means I haven’t been to the site for a little while.

    – Reminder: Anybody can post here, but please be civil. Disagree all you want, but please do not insult anybody.

    – Weather-past: Well our little mini snowstorm is gone. I’m not completely satisfied with my forecast on this one. It snuck up a little more than I wanted it to, and some of the amounts were just a touch higher than I forecast. But no big misses, so I’ll take it. There was some cellular nature to the precipitation, evident on radar. I had 1.7 inch here in Woburn, while in Reading center there was under 1 inch. Move a bit to the east toward Peabody and there was nearly 2 inches. So the variability caused by the cellular nature of the precipitation was apparent even over these short distances.

    – Weather-now: Periods of rain through evening and maybe some patchy fog over any remaining snowcover. Once the cold front clears the area later tonight, some icy areas may form, but it should not be a widespread major problem since we’ll see a gusty wind helping to dry the ground out, and no rapid temperature drop.

    – Weather-future: Things I’m keeping an eye on for the next update and as far out as I can see include the following…
    * Windy/cold Wednesday
    * Rapid-moving and weak system with snow to mix/rain Thursday evening
    * Breezy/cold Friday
    * Snow/mix Saturday, probably in JJ’s “MINOR” label
    * In-between Sunday but cool (not too cold) for Pats game
    * Possible cold-air-damning icing situation for Monday???
    * Warm-up squelched by high pressure to the north Tuesday
    * Storm Wednesday (1-25), probably a cutter, may open the door to very mild stretch to end the month…

    1. So, outside of a few very mild hours later this evening…overall the next 7 days are chilly or cold with winter precip opportunities. Sounds like some progress.

      1. This is the chilly interlude. The month ends warm. The month overall will be warm.

        We’ll look ahead to February soon.

    2. I don’t think we’d quite be at 15:1.

      Also probably dealing with a very fast-moving system with minimal if any redevelopment. I suspect snow amounts will be at or lower than the most recent event.

  51. Very cold air to me, but I think 15:1 is little high as well, but TK indicated some mixing. But I really do not see how any mixing gets invloved.

    1. I see it as an inch or 2.
      I also don’t see how mixing gets involved, unless
      the boundary layer goes bonkers with a SOUTH wind.
      Temps aloft PLENTY COLD enough to keep it snow.““““““““““““““““`

  52. Cold front shwoing up nicely on Cleveland radar with a thin band of intense showers.

    At 3 pm, Cleveland and Erie, PA were in the mid 50s just ahead of this front.

    Noticed that 2/3 of Canada and all of Alaska are frigid. The northern and central parts of Michigan got a nice snowfall today, which is heading for southern parts of Canada. I think, even in this mild to warm regime, slowly but surely, cold controls seem to be taking over more real estate.

  54. New blog is posted. Stepping away for a couple of hours. Be back during the Bruins game to check in and update.

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