Thursday September 30 2021 Forecast (7:26AM)

55 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 30 – OCTOBER 4)

This final day of September will be a cool one and an upper level low spinning over the region (center just to the east and north) which is sending a band of showers across the South Coast as the day dawns will also provide the instability for some pop up afternoon / early evening showers later today. This low will slide to the east enough so that we will have dry weather Friday, and then the high pressure area approaching from the west is going to have its top pinched from 2 sides – from the upper low still not that far away in eastern Canada, and the approach of moisture from a new system to the west. This interaction probably means varying amounts of clouds for the weekend, but at this time I expect the dry air to be substantial enough to keep away a rain threat. That probably can’t hold any longer by Monday, which is looking more like a wet day at this time. And once again, if you have plans near the coast this weekend, be aware of increased ocean swells / surf and rip current risk as a result of distant offshore Hurricane Sam.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers South Coast early. Isolated to scattered showers redeveloping during the afternoon hours. Highs 58-65, coolest in higher elevations of southwestern NH through central MA. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 46-53 except 38-45 interior lower elevations. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

FRIDAY: Sunny start then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 60-67. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 38-45 interior areas, 45-52 immediate coast and urban centers. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 61-68. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 43-50. Wind WSW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain overnight. Lows 48-55. Wind SW to variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Highs 58-65. Wind variable to E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 5-9)

The beginning of this period may start unsettled before high pressure from the north wins the battle and we turn drier with fairly seasonable temperatures. Still have to keep an eye on low pressure to the south.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 10-14)

High pressure should be more dominant with drier weather in this stretch of time, and we should also start to see a transition to more westerly flow again in the larger scale pattern.

55 thoughts on “Thursday September 30 2021 Forecast (7:26AM)”

  4. Thank you, TK, for both pages.

    Was 50 at 6:00 but looks as if it dropped to 46 for a bit. Not the coldest night so far. It is still low 50s.

  6. Thank you, TK.

    A northwesterly is my favorite wind. Haven’t had it much recently. It’s here briefly now. Hope we get more of it at some point in October and beyond.

  7. The AL wild card race is epic: 4 teams are within 2 games of each other, with 4 games to play. Anything can happen.

    1. Its fun for sure …………. well, when the Sox are winning 🙂 🙂 🙂

      Seattle, wow, took all 7 games against Oakland. Didn’t see that coming. And they really had to. Had they even lost one game, they’d be 2 behind the Sox, in the loss column, with 4 to play.

      1. Seattle Mariners are a great story: Low payroll, young club, a lot of clutch moments this season, really good at winning low-scoring, close games. Milwaukee Brewers are another fantastic story. Yet another small market team defying the odds. Then there’s the St. Louis Cardinals, who went on an incredible 17 game winning streak to get into the playoffs; similar to the Rockies in 2007.

  8. Random thought ….

    I wonder if hurricane names get retired if the system never really greatly impacts a landmass.

    Sam has spent a good amount of time being quite strong, if not downright intense.

  11. Thank you, TK.

    Just excavated a cold-weather clothing bag and found fingerless gloves for my outdoor rehearsal tonight…

      2. No reason you should know!
        I’m a freelancer — not a Symphony member. I do play with the Pops on July 4th and some other times. I also play with other groups around Boston.

  12. Had fun with the 12z GFS run yesterday and its big rain scenario around Columbus Day Weekend for the northeast.

    The details keep changing, but the general big picture projection of a cutoff forming underneath a higher, mid latitude ridge keeps repeating on the last many runs.

    If this verifies, potential for an excessive rainfall event somewhere on the East coast towards the first week of October.

    1. I do like the fact that they use the former 44” (43.8”) for Boston as an average rather than the “unrealistic” 49.2” that NWS now uses. I suppose AccuWeather will eventually use the “new” average in their stats. It’s going to take me quite awhile to get used to it.

      1. The 49 is more realistic, since Boston’s average snowfall was higher in the last 30-year period. The 44 is less realistic. It’s time to move forward on those averages.

    2. My issue (predictably): You don’t have enough information to make a reasonable winter forecast until at earliest November 1. This forecast does mention La Nina and “other factors” but they don’t really go into what those other factors are. I’d be interested in hearing their updated thoughts in early to mid November.

  14. Will see how that forecast pans out. Since summer everything that I have read is pointing to a colder than normal start to winter.

    1. This I can agree with. The EARLY hints, keeping in mind they are only part of the puzzle, lean toward a quick start.

    1. Sunday’s a tricky one…………temp-wise especially.
      I pretty much “mailed it in” on my Sunday temp forecast for this morning’s update. Will re-evaluate next update.

  16. AccuWeather’s 60-day forecast has NO snow in Woburn through December 28. Winter’s over! Call it off! 😉

    On a semi-serious weather note, the battle we’ve foreseen between high pressure to the north and low pressure to the south is already shaping up this coming weekend, and we’ll see it in trying to figure out a frontal position (as SAK discusses in his weekend outlook and I ran away from a bit in my morning one – haha, but will face tomorrow). The longer range guidance (ensembles, CFS, hint that this type of battle may be recurring for a good chunk of at least the first half of October. We will see on that…

  18. Had to walk to downtown crossing earlier today to get my watch repaired in the old Jewelry building at 333 Washington Street; hasn’t changed since I first went there with my mother in 1969. On my stroll, I observed no foliage colors at all, in either the Public Garden or Boston Common. That, my friends, is very unusual on September 30th. Usually – well 98% of the time – the maples in the common that abut the tennis courts are already in definite change mode with quite a bit of red. Today, there was no red. I’d say it’s at least 2 weeks late.

  19. I’ve now seen 2 long range outlooks today…

    1 said “stronger La Nina” (driven by a climate model forecast), the other said “weaker La Nina” (an agency’s winter outlook). So, which is it? 😉

  20. Just my opinion: I don’t think it’s necessary for the news to be spending up to 10 minutes on the fact that TB & TB are coming to Foxboro this week. It’s not nearly that big of a deal. #DramaKings&Queens 😉

      1. I know I know. 😉 … Just a bit of overkill IMO. I have generally avoided it anyway, for the most part. Just looking forward to the game. 🙂

  21. Side sports-related note: Bruins are playing their first home exhibition game this evening against the Flyers and it will be on TNT. Some of the bigger names are playing in this game, at least to start. They’ve played 2 games so far, 1-1 (a shoot-out win over Washington and a one-goal loss to the NY Rangers).

      1. We had two frosts by this time last year. I saw your comment and sighed when I saw we bounced back up to 50. Arghhhhhhhhhh. I want the mosquitoes GONE

        1. Indeed, it was much cooler last year. Also, the fall colors were already out and had been for a couple of weeks in many places.

          This year the bugs are having too much fun. I want them gone. Now. Alas, we’ll have to wait. It’s good to keep in mind, however, that on average Boston’s first frost doesn’t occur until the first week of November. My guess is that Sutton’s is a good 3 weeks earlier than that.

          1. I didn’t check re colors but know ours are late every year. I looked at my notes and checked in WHW archives re frosts though. We had two solid frosts September 20 and 21, 2020.

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