Wednesday October 6 2021 Forecast (7:21AM)

36 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 6-10)

High pressure will dominate the weather for the next few days. First, the initial high pressure system in control is on the weak side and its center a little to our northwest, and some lingering low level moisture in the form of fog patches in lower elevations and a layer of scattered to broken clouds a few thousand feet above the ground will take a little time to dissipate, but as the day goes on a drier northwesterly air flow will help this happen. The high center settles over to just south of the region tonight and Thursday and Thursday will be a day that will feature 100% sunshine and rather mild air. A stronger high pressure center will enter the picture from eastern Canada and a frontal boundary between the initial high and this newer high will pass through the region on Friday with no more than a wind shift to northeast and an increase in wind speed. While Friday will be a mild day, it will start to turn cooler as a northeasterly wind strengthens and transports a Canadian air mass into New England. This sets up a cooler weekend with fair weather but probably some amount of cloud cover arriving Saturday both from ocean moisture at lower levels and some higher level moisture from low pressure to our south. This will continue Sunday but add a weak disturbance trying to come through from the west as the high center shifts to the east and we may add even more clouds with perhaps a few showers. The shower threat is not a certainty at this point, but is something to watch.

TODAY: Fog patches and areas of cloudiness morning. Sunnier midday on. Highs 64-71, coolest coast. Wind NW up to 10 MPH but coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Clear except fog patches forming in valleys, swamps, and bogs. Lows 44-49, coolest interior low elevations, except 50-55 in urban centers. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 67-74. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear except fog patches re-forming in lower elevations. Lows 46-53, coolest interior valleys. Wind calm.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 66-73 occurring by midday then may turn cooler. Wind variable up to 10 MPH early then N to NE 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 59-66. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a shower. Highs 60-67. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 11-15)

Confidence is moderate to high that high pressure will regain control for dry and mild weather early in the period. We’ll have to watch low pressure to the south again for possible moisture intrusion and wet weather threat by the middle of the period then a return to fair and mild weather later.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 16-20)

The overall indications are still for high pressure to control with mainly dry weather and above normal temperatures, though toward the end of the period a stronger push from the west may send a front through with a shower chance and introduce some cooler air. Again not a high confidence outlook at this time.

36 thoughts on “Wednesday October 6 2021 Forecast (7:21AM)”

  11. well TK you did it again

    until this morning nobody had the clouds in the forecast. you had them several days running. i don’t comment much but i’m reading the blog every day

    thank you again

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  13. Good late afternoon! I just got back from taking my mom to a doc appt. All is well other than her BP is higher these days and she needs a new med for that. Otherwise, a great report from the doc!

    I haven’t really looked at any weather since this morning, I’ll do that now. If you don’t hear any more weather commentary from me today, then nothing has changed with my thought process. 😉

  15. Well, big difference between the 12z operational ECMWF & GFS models regarding rain chances for Sunday. ECMWF has been very inconsistent. Wet, dry, wet, dry, wet. It can’t quite “decide”. GFS has been dry for many consecutive runs.

    Ironically I think the Canadian model may have the best idea of the 3 regarding our weather that day and reflects what I have worded in my forecast from this morning.

    Will re-evaluate for the morning update!

      1. It has nothing to do with actual holidays. Weather doesn’t “know” our calendar.

        Take any 3 day period, keeping in mind seasonal changes, and the chance of precipitation over that 3 day period is the same as any 3 day period around it.

        Example: People say we get a storm on MLK Jr. Weekend every year. Actually, we don’t get a storm on MLK Jr. Weekend every year. But if you take the 3 day period (Saturday through Monday) in mid January, and compare it to the Wednesday through Friday period that precedes it and the Tuesday through Thursday period that follows it, you’ll find the long term average percentage chance of precipitation (of any type) on any or all of those days for each period is essentially the same.

        That’s the explanation.

          1. Just an example. You’re not the only one to have said that. 🙂

            But it was a good example to use for my reasoning why there is nothing special about any particular 3-day period regarding storm chances.

  16. Thanks, TK!

    Monday is the Boston marathon, and I sure wish it would turn out cooler — but they don’t ask me!

    1. It will probably be in the upper 50s to lower 60s at race time which is a good temp for running.

        1. There was one run of one model that had that day wet. That model has since backed off that “forecast”.

      2. That’s good news — I was looking at the forecast high temperature, but hopefully they should be ok in the morning.

      1. coffee never fails 🙂 🙂 🙂

        I tell my students in A block, ” the coffee hasn’t kicked in yet”

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