DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 8-12)

A mild high pressure area will give way to a cooler one from Canada today, and this announcement will be made by a back door cold front that sweeps southwestward across there region this afternoon and early evening, taking a fairly mild day with light wind and introducing a gusty breeze, cooler air, and eventually low clouds from the ocean, which show up before sunset for some coastal areas but wait until tonight to push across most of the region. The moisture coming off the ocean will be enough to produce pockets of drizzle overnight into Saturday morning when the low clouds will be most extensive, then some drier air will work in to help break up those clouds at least in some areas as we go through the day Saturday, so partial sun is possible. I would not cancel any outdoor plans Saturday as the “worst” of the weather would be a period of drizzle in the morning. At least some low cloudiness may return for a time Saturday night into Sunday but at the same time we’ll have mid and high level cloudiness increasing due to low pressure to our south. This is an area of low pressure area that has been talked about for days on this blog and in other media, trying to answer the question as to whether or not it would move up and mess up part of the holiday weekend (specifically Sunday into Monday, which is also the day of the Boston Marathon this year). I think if we get any shower activity it will be Sunday and only indirectly from that low, in combination with a weakening disturbance moving in from the west, and by Monday all of that energy will have been pushed back to the south and high pressure will be strong enough to keep the region rain-free. We still may have a fair amount of cloud cover around Monday and another thing which can be a minor to moderate concern for runners of the Marathon is that the dew point will be a little on the higher side for mid October, with the humid air potentially having some impact. It won’t be oppressive like summertime by any stretch, but just a bit humid. I should also mention that with astronomical high tide, and the ocean stirred up a bit by low pressure that has been sitting to the south for a while, there can be some high tide splash-over in vulnerable locations this weekend, especially Saturday. By Tuesday, the strongest feature affecting our weather will be high pressure offshore, so expect a fair and mild day, but probably not totally sunny as there will still be some moisture left over for clouds.

TODAY: Patchy clouds early morning, sunshine most of the day, but low clouds may arrive in Seacoast NH and far eastern MA by late in the day. Highs 66-73, may quickly turn cooler in southeastern NH and eastern MA during the second half of the afternoon. Wind variable up to 10 MPH through midday, shifting to NE and increasing to 5-15 MPH with higher gusts from northeast to southwest across the region afternoon-evening.

TONIGHT: Becoming cloudy. Patchy drizzle and areas of fog overnight. Lows 48-55. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with patchy drizzle and a few areas of fog in the morning. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 59-66. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 60-67. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of showers. Lows 51-58. Wind ESE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly to partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 52-59. Wind SSE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 65-72. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 13-17)

Other than a couple of very weak / dissipating troughs moving through with some clouds at times, the weather is expected to be governed by high pressure at the surface and aloft much of the time with generally dry weather and above normal temperatures heading through the mid point of October.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 18-22)

This period should see some giving-way of the high pressure ridging with better opportunities for systems arriving from the west with a couple greater threats for some unsettled weather. Too early for timing on these potentials.