Saturday October 9 2021 Forecast (8:48AM)

27 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 9-13)

High pressure centered over the Canadian Maritimes and low pressure south of New England combine to create onshore flow this 3-day weekend. Low pressure to the south gets close enough to bring a little rainfall mainly to southern areas at some point Sunday and/or Sunday night, otherwise the main swath of moisture from that system stays to the south and other areas see no more than a few patches of drizzle from time to time through Sunday. Watch for high tide splash-over in vulnerable coastal areas today. For the Boston Marathon on Monday, a general head wind is expected along the course with temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s near the start of the race and well into the 60s with moderate humidity for later in the race. Periods of sunshine sneak into parts of the region with a bit of a drier air intrusion from time to time, especially today and again during Monday. High and mid level cloud cover will likely be thicker on Sunday preventing much in the way of any sun even if lower clouds break up at times. Tuesday-Wednesday will see a building of high pressure aloft and a shifting of surface high pressure to the east which is a mild weather pattern here. The remnants of a low pressure trough from the west may initiate a few showers in the region Wednesday but otherwise rain-free weather is expected heading toward the middle of next week.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy – partial sun at times. Patches of drizzle possible. Highs 59-66. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered areas of fog and drizzle. Lows 50-57. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. A patch of drizzle and fog here and there. Chance of light rain favoring areas south of I-90 mainly during the afternoon. Highs 60-67. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of light rain favoring RI and southeastern MA mainly evening. Lows 51-58. Wind ESE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly to partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 52-59. Wind SSE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 52-59. Wind S under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of a shower. Highs 67-74. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 14-18)

High pressure controls with fair weather and above normal temperatures into late next week, then there are signs of a pattern change (said with low to moderate confidence until I see more consistency in medium range guidance). This would bring a cold front through around October 16 and introduce a seasonably cooler westerly air flow with some showers likely marking the change. Timing uncertain of course this far in advance so watch future updates.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 19-23)

High pressure may re-build over the East Coast with fair weather and above normal temperatures being the most likely weather we see in this stretch. However this is not a high confidence forecast given the uncertainty preceding it, so keep an eye on future updates for this period of time too.

27 thoughts on “Saturday October 9 2021 Forecast (8:48AM)”

  1. Thanks TK.

    According to Kelly Ann this morning, overall foliage is 8 days behind schedule on average between the wet summer and warm nights.

    There is no chilly air in sight. Nothing more than “hints” of color on the trees, at least around here.

    1. Yes I have been commenting that this year’s color wave is 7-10 days behind last year’s.

      It’s reactive to past and current weather which vary, and loss of daylight which is more constant year to year. The combination results in 2021 being behind 2020 at this time.

      There is actually some cooler weather in sight, but not in the next handful of days.

  8. For our teachers. Certainly well deserved. Apparently, all you have to do is show your ID

    “McDonald’s is showing their appreciation for educators next week by offering free “Thank You Meals” to those who visit in stores or at the drive-thru. These meals will include a free breakfast served in a classic Happy Meal box to help brighten an educator’s day on their way to work”

  17. Give me this pattern now and then let’s hope it flip flops for the start of winter. I am getting concerned with all the talk about LaNina getting stronger and stronger with each model run, and the prospects of a fairly mild winter.

    1. Someone here recently posted one of Eric Fisher’s tweets that mentioned “2011-12” with regard to La Niña strength as you mentioned. That would be a winter nightmare for sure to have to relive that again so relatively soon.

      1. Yes I posted it. It was a comment/reply to the original tweet by Ben Noll about the latest long range model forecasts showing a strong La Niña and above normal temps through much of the country for Dec-Feb.

        Eric, like TK, does not make a winter forecast until later in Nov so I assume his tweet was more just a comment on the look of that particular model run as opposed to a prediction for the upcoming winter. Still a bit early for that.

        1. Well ugh. 2011 popped into my head as I read earlier. I want that thought to go away. Very far away

        2. Thanks Mark. I just hope that one model run doesn’t end up being correct. It seems the entire planet is so “warm” nowadays.

  19. Re: La Nina.
    One the strength of 2011-2012 does not even come close to meaning that the winter of 2021-2022 would be a repeat. That’s ONE puzzle piece. There are MANY more. This is why Eric, like myself, won’t make a winter forecast until about 5 or 6 weeks from now. 🙂

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