We are now below 100,000 cases for the first time since August. Hardly anything to write home about, but it’s something I suppose.
Any downward trend is an improvement. Imagine what it would be like with no vaccine.
Great point!
I think our long plateau will begin between 50k and 65k daily new cases, and this will occur at some point in November. Given our lower testing rate than the UK, that’s just above the plateau of Great Britain. So, it will be a slow and painful burn. Once we get down to the plateau we could still be averaging 700 deaths a day all winter and early spring. And this is the best case scenario, one which doesn’t include a new variant of concern.
The UK is experiencing a much cooler fall than we are. Cases there are rising. I said plateau in my last note, but that’s misleading. This past week has seen a rather significant increase from that plateau.
The US has not seen a lot of cool or cold weather yet. It will of course come. The core of the pandemic is already shifting north, especially to pockets of unvaccinated folks: Wyoming, Idaho, Alaska, Montana, the Dakotas, but also many counties in the Upper Midwest, and even Vermont. Once the cooler weather arrives I think we may have countervailing forces, if you will: One tugs in the direction of a downward sloping case curve as the South and West eases considerably. The second pulls in the direction of an upward sloping case curve as the North increases. On balance, we will see fewer cases because the North is better vaccinated. But, a change in weather will blunt the downward trend.
Thanks, Joshua, I’m curious re your thoughts on the Vermont tweet I posted yesterday. I shared a comment that it could be due to cooler weather. TK pointed out that VT is above normal also. I checked this am and Stowe was only two degrees cooler at 55 than Sutton. Maine was mentioned on the weather portion of whw this morning at 45.
Myocarditis and pericarditis are said to be on the rare side
But what are the UK, Hong Kong and now Sweden seeing that we are not. And why are we seemingly ignoring the elephant in the room. This is where my faith in our system gets shaky. We also ignored ….repeatedly….the fact that the virus has moved west to east more than once and we ignored the breakthroughs and lower efficacy rates for far too long
Vicki, I’m unsure about Vermont. I think Topol may be correct. He said that because Vermont did so well before at preventing spread there are more susceptible people there; fewer people with prior exposure to coronavirus.
Thank you. Giving more importance to a third vaccine I’m guessing.
Patients with COVID-19 often results in serious damage to the kidneys.
Another horrifying fact which I just learned a few moments ago.
GOP gubernatorial candidate from Texas Allen West has Covid-19 pneumonia. He has low oxygen levels and will likely be admitted to hospital. He says he’s taking ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine (both unproven `treatments’ which cause more harm than good) and a monoclonal antibody (which has emergency use authorization, but not regular approval, and is very expensive). Of course, he’s opposed to vaccines (which are approved, cheap, and have been taken by hundreds of millions of people). He’s such an ignorant fool. He also spread the contagion at a fund-raiser the other day. Why they hold these indoor events while there’s a very high rate of transmission, I’ll never understand. https://twitter.com/AllenWest/status/1446268853282017288
And I bet there will be no mention of this on any of the daily nightly National news broadcasts.
CBS, NBC, ABC, FOX…where are thou?
When the Anchorage (AK) Assembly recently considered a mask mandate at a public meeting, many residents outside held signs – “LIBERTY or TYRANNY”- and at another meeting the following night, many residents wore a yellow Star of David, liking the mask mandate to the Holocaust.
And I thought Florida was a tough state. 🙁
I have no idea why some believe having to wear a mask infringes on Liberty or freedom. We are not free to do something that jeopardizes others. Hyperindividualism is alive and well in this country.
But to liken anything to the Holocaust makes me sick. How dare they.
Agree. Some pretty SICK people in this country.
I don’t know if this has been mentioned here, but Israel is now requiring boosters for “full” vaccination in order to get into public spaces including restaurants, clubs, etc. Two shots will no longer be enough.
Joshua – Do you think this will happen here as well eventually?
Works for me.
It should
Yes, the U.S. will eventually require boosters. It will have to. One thing we will see this winter is that among the at-risk those who didn’t get a booster some will be vulnerable to severe breakthrough infections. I think this will happen all around the world. It doesn’t mean the vaccine doesn’t work, but it does mean that the Delta variant changed the game.
If I recall, it took until early May last year before masks were required. That was nearly two months since the pandemic began. Maybe many more deaths could have been prevented. Hope we won’t have to wait that long for boosters.
The U.S. is NOT a proactive nation when it comes to public health. We’re always many steps behind the proactive nations. I remember this vividly with HIV in the 1980s. There was of course no vaccine, but also no viable treatment. So, prevention was the only measure. While safe sex campaigns did happen in the U.S., they were delayed by years (politics, of course) and almost exclusively targeted at the gay community, even after it was known that HIV could spread among heterosexual people and intravenous drug users. Meanwhile, across Europe there were safe sex campaigns (lots and lots of public service announcements on TV, radio, and in newspapers), free condoms in schools and bars/clubs, sex education in all secondary schools, and government-sponsored injection sites for heroin users. The emphasis was NEVER on just the gay community. The results were clear. A country like the Netherlands experienced a much, much lower death rate from AIDS than the U.S.
Thanks TK!
We are now below 100,000 cases for the first time since August. Hardly anything to write home about, but it’s something I suppose.
Any downward trend is an improvement. Imagine what it would be like with no vaccine.
Great point!
I think our long plateau will begin between 50k and 65k daily new cases, and this will occur at some point in November. Given our lower testing rate than the UK, that’s just above the plateau of Great Britain. So, it will be a slow and painful burn. Once we get down to the plateau we could still be averaging 700 deaths a day all winter and early spring. And this is the best case scenario, one which doesn’t include a new variant of concern.
The UK is experiencing a much cooler fall than we are. Cases there are rising. I said plateau in my last note, but that’s misleading. This past week has seen a rather significant increase from that plateau.
The US has not seen a lot of cool or cold weather yet. It will of course come. The core of the pandemic is already shifting north, especially to pockets of unvaccinated folks: Wyoming, Idaho, Alaska, Montana, the Dakotas, but also many counties in the Upper Midwest, and even Vermont. Once the cooler weather arrives I think we may have countervailing forces, if you will: One tugs in the direction of a downward sloping case curve as the South and West eases considerably. The second pulls in the direction of an upward sloping case curve as the North increases. On balance, we will see fewer cases because the North is better vaccinated. But, a change in weather will blunt the downward trend.
Thanks, Joshua, I’m curious re your thoughts on the Vermont tweet I posted yesterday. I shared a comment that it could be due to cooler weather. TK pointed out that VT is above normal also. I checked this am and Stowe was only two degrees cooler at 55 than Sutton. Maine was mentioned on the weather portion of whw this morning at 45.
Myocarditis and pericarditis are said to be on the rare side
https://twitter.com/erictopol/status/1445857506337517568?s=21
But what are the UK, Hong Kong and now Sweden seeing that we are not. And why are we seemingly ignoring the elephant in the room. This is where my faith in our system gets shaky. We also ignored ….repeatedly….the fact that the virus has moved west to east more than once and we ignored the breakthroughs and lower efficacy rates for far too long
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-vaccine-moderna-sweden-halts-use-in-under-30s/
Vicki, I’m unsure about Vermont. I think Topol may be correct. He said that because Vermont did so well before at preventing spread there are more susceptible people there; fewer people with prior exposure to coronavirus.
Thank you. Giving more importance to a third vaccine I’m guessing.
Spread of coronavirus visualized (from February 2020 to now): https://twitter.com/JohnHolbein1/status/1446952172818731019
Chilling! 🙁
Patients with COVID-19 often results in serious damage to the kidneys.
Another horrifying fact which I just learned a few moments ago.
GOP gubernatorial candidate from Texas Allen West has Covid-19 pneumonia. He has low oxygen levels and will likely be admitted to hospital. He says he’s taking ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine (both unproven `treatments’ which cause more harm than good) and a monoclonal antibody (which has emergency use authorization, but not regular approval, and is very expensive). Of course, he’s opposed to vaccines (which are approved, cheap, and have been taken by hundreds of millions of people). He’s such an ignorant fool. He also spread the contagion at a fund-raiser the other day. Why they hold these indoor events while there’s a very high rate of transmission, I’ll never understand. https://twitter.com/AllenWest/status/1446268853282017288
And I bet there will be no mention of this on any of the daily nightly National news broadcasts.
CBS, NBC, ABC, FOX…where are thou?
When the Anchorage (AK) Assembly recently considered a mask mandate at a public meeting, many residents outside held signs – “LIBERTY or TYRANNY”- and at another meeting the following night, many residents wore a yellow Star of David, liking the mask mandate to the Holocaust.
And I thought Florida was a tough state. 🙁
I have no idea why some believe having to wear a mask infringes on Liberty or freedom. We are not free to do something that jeopardizes others. Hyperindividualism is alive and well in this country.
But to liken anything to the Holocaust makes me sick. How dare they.
Agree. Some pretty SICK people in this country.
I don’t know if this has been mentioned here, but Israel is now requiring boosters for “full” vaccination in order to get into public spaces including restaurants, clubs, etc. Two shots will no longer be enough.
Joshua – Do you think this will happen here as well eventually?
Works for me.
It should
Yes, the U.S. will eventually require boosters. It will have to. One thing we will see this winter is that among the at-risk those who didn’t get a booster some will be vulnerable to severe breakthrough infections. I think this will happen all around the world. It doesn’t mean the vaccine doesn’t work, but it does mean that the Delta variant changed the game.
If I recall, it took until early May last year before masks were required. That was nearly two months since the pandemic began. Maybe many more deaths could have been prevented. Hope we won’t have to wait that long for boosters.
The U.S. is NOT a proactive nation when it comes to public health. We’re always many steps behind the proactive nations. I remember this vividly with HIV in the 1980s. There was of course no vaccine, but also no viable treatment. So, prevention was the only measure. While safe sex campaigns did happen in the U.S., they were delayed by years (politics, of course) and almost exclusively targeted at the gay community, even after it was known that HIV could spread among heterosexual people and intravenous drug users. Meanwhile, across Europe there were safe sex campaigns (lots and lots of public service announcements on TV, radio, and in newspapers), free condoms in schools and bars/clubs, sex education in all secondary schools, and government-sponsored injection sites for heroin users. The emphasis was NEVER on just the gay community. The results were clear. A country like the Netherlands experienced a much, much lower death rate from AIDS than the U.S.
Romania’s ongoing catastrophic 4th wave (off the charts bad): https://www.aljazeera.com/gallery/2021/10/10/photos-coronavirus-pandemic-fourth-covid-wave-rips-through-romania
C-19 for 10-11 is ready.