Sunday October 10 2021 Forecast (7:34AM)

33 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 10-14)

High pressure centered to the northeast of New England and low pressure to the south continue to create a general onshore air flow from the east and northeast. The low to the south will make its best run at us today and this evening, managing to spread some rainfall into the South Coast region and a few patches of rain a little further north into eastern and central MA mainly this afternoon and evening, with some lingering South Coast rain overnight before the high ultimately wins the battle and pushes it all to the south again. This means that Marathon Monday (the first and perhaps only one we’ll ever see in October) will be a rain-free day although there will be a fair amount of cloudiness, moderate humidity and a light head wind for runners. I’m still expecting temperatures to be in the upper 50s to lower 60s for the early part of the racing and well into the 60s later in the day as the mid to back-of-pack runners are finishing. High pressure at the surface and aloft gains stronger control Tuesday and tries to hang on Wednesday while the remains of a weakening / dissipating trough from the west move in, but then the high regains control again by Thursday, so we see generally fair weather and above normal temperatures heading into the middle of the week.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Afternoon light rain most likely South Coast with spotty light rain possible elsewhere especially eastern MA. Highs 60-67. Wind E to NE up to 10 MPH, a few gusts around 15-20 MPH South Coast.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of light rain favoring RI and southeastern MA mainly evening but lingering near the South Coast overnight. Lows 51-58. Wind ESE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Early-morning patches of light rain possible near Cape Cod. Highs 63-70. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 52-59. Wind SSE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 52-59. Wind S under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of a shower. Highs 67-74. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 52-59. Wind S to variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 68-75. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 15-19)

A low pressure area is destined to pass north of New England between late October 15 and late October 16, dragging a warm front / cold front combo across the region. Most rainfall activity with the warm front should stay to the north with October 15 being a partly cloudy and mild day for mid October, and then a round of showers is expected with the cold front, current timing expected to be sometime during the first half of October 16 (Saturday of next weekend) which means the weekend may start out unsettled, after which we should see drier and cooler weather with a westerly breeze take over for the balance of the weekend (through October 17). High pressure looks like it will control the weather with fair weather and another warming trend for the remainder of this period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 20-24)

As we head into late October the indications are mixed from our medium range guidance but at this time I lean toward high pressure being in control of the weather here with mostly fair weather and above normal temperatures.. Some guidance has shown a more progressive flow with systems moving through more frequently and at the same time other guidance has shown a slower, more amplified pattern. When I see this conflict, my tendency is to persist with the same forecast from the day before and watch the trends.

33 thoughts on “Sunday October 10 2021 Forecast (7:34AM)”

  2. Thanks TK.

    I find it interesting that we are going to miss the vast majority of low pressure to our due south (hugging NC coast, no less) and high pressure due east. From my perspective, the high should be due north, right over, or just nw of SNE for a coastal to miss.

    When I was watching the tv mets radar loop with the storm moving due north, it looked like a bowling ball headed straight in our direction and we are the “pins” so to speak.

    Is there a strong trough to our west that’s kicking the storm out just before it can get us?

    1. It’s a southward sinking of the overall upper level features and a little help from a slightly westward extension and southward push of the surface high.

    1. Remind me of this weekend if I start complaining of any of the upcoming winter holiday weekends, if you know what I mean. 😉

      WAAAH! Why is it we never miss any RAIN events?? 😀

      1. Well, we’re pretty much missing this rain event. 😉 A direct hit would have yielded 1-3 inches of rainfall across SNE.

        1. Not to mention my basement… 😉

          We’re really dodging a bullet, especially with the Marathon and playoff baseball (Red Sox).

  13. What I find remarkable is that there will be The Boston Marathon “and” Red Sox baseball on the same Monday in mid-October, just like Monday in mid-April.

    Let’s just hope any elimination tomorrow will be Tampa’s. 😉

  14. Parts of Oklahoma including OKC under the gun for severe t-storms and possible tornadoes next few hours.

    In fact HRRR forecast (as of this morning) a super cell thunderstorm with a hook on it forming southwest of OKC by late afternoon and that’s exactly what we have now. HRRR nailed it.

  15. Sox-Rays classic. What a game. In baseball, there seems to always be something that happens that you’ve never seen before. Renfroe’s unintentionally hip-checking the ball into the bullpen off the Kiermeyer double caused a HUGE break for the Sox. Based on what’s in the rule book, umpires could only rule the hit a ground-rule double, which meant that the runner from first could only advance to 3rd. Pavetta struck out the next man. Then in the bottom half Vasquez sent the fans home happy with a walk-off. By the way, the rule needs to change, and probably will in the off season. Umpires should have discretion when a player inadvertently (or intentionally) knocks a ball out of play. Currently umpires don’t have discretion that would allow the runner from 1st to score.

    1. I sure agree…it was a great game. And long. The ball bouncing out was a fluke, making it unplayable; but it wasn’t a home run. Tough decision but I agree with the automatic double rule….unless, as you say, it is intentional. No matter what way you look at it, it sure stung for the Rays.

  16. Weather delay in the Sunday night game . I think this is a first for me seeing this in the NFL but I could be wrong

      1. Metal helmets I suppose. I do wonder if a football player (at any level) has ever actually been struck by lightning while on the field.

        1. Not in the USA that I am aware of.

          The delay would be as much to protect fans as players. The helmets have pretty much nothing to do with their risks, even if they were made of metal.

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