Minor Snow Event Thursday Night, More Saturday?

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9:07PM

Cold high pressure builds across New England tonight then retreats to the Canadian Maritimes Thursday. Weak low pressure will move across New England Thursday night and make an attempt to redevelop just offshore. This feature will produce snow, but amounts will be limited due to rapid movement and location of low pressure redevelopment. Another cold high pressure area will move across northern New England and southeastern Canada Friday. The next in a parade of low pressure areas will pass south of New England on Saturday. This low will have more moisture to work with and enough cold air will be in place for snow in most of the Boston area, though warmer air to the south may work into areas south of Boston so mixing and rain may get involved. Otherwise, there is the potential for at least a few inches of snow in much of the region.

Looking ahead to Sunday, the weather for the Patriots playoff game against the Baltimore Ravens is expected to be partly to mostly cloudy with a temperature in the 30s.

Another weather system will arrive Monday, and the early call on this one is for warmer air aloft meaning rain, but lingering cold air at the surface possibly leading to some icing. Plenty of time to worry about this one.

Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Clear. Low ranging from near 5 inland valleys to near 15 near the coast. Wind NW diminishing to around 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. High 27-32. Wind N around 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow of 1 to 2 inches with a few amounts of 3 inches possible. Low 2o-25. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. High 30-35. Wind W increasing 10-20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Snow with a few to several inches possible, some mix/rain possible especially south of Boston. Low 25. High 35.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 25. High 39.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Ice to rain. Low 28. High 40.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Low 35. High 46.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 24. High 38.

82 thoughts on “Minor Snow Event Thursday Night, More Saturday?”

  9. I’m going to try and out post Hadi on this blog. Just kidding. You did good and now I hope you get rewarded.

  11. Sat/Sat night to me looks like rain for Boston and Providence south and east, the models that I’ve looked at point to a 35 degree run,, where’s the ugh meter at?? Have a great night 🙂

        1. 12z,18z and now tonight 00z run, I think it trends warmer along the coastal plain, I do think west and north of 495 get most of the snow, again I want the big one I just don’t c it 🙂

  13. Hadi-Help me out. What are you looking at that is showing you more QPF tomorrow night? 00z NAM through 7am Friday produces .11 in Springfield, .10 in Worcester, and .14 in Boston. It does linger precip just off the coast for too long on Friday, in that special way that the NAM just oh so loves to do…

    1. Just reading it, maybe I should be clear .05 from previous run. As always I fall for the NAM trap at the back end.

  14. I do think what does fall tomorrow night will be Snow for most of the region. I just don’t think those general 3-4″ amounts I am hearing will verify. Coating-2″ as general rule throughout the region.

  16. It will be even more interesting if Harvey at 11:00 switches to the “warmer” scenario. His blog as of 7:13 pm is still going for all snow for Boston, but does mention that a mix with rain is becoming more likely south of the Pike and mostly rain for the Cape. I really trust Harvey when Barry isn’t around.

    I am not liking this trend, folks. 🙁

    2. In my post above, I am referring to Saturday’s storm. I have no p-type issues for Thursday night…snow easily and the only issue is QPF with likely not much expected.

  17. I now look at the sounding that come out after the run and I bet it has all frozen precipitation tomorrow night.

    JMA how do you see exact precipitation totals? I can’t seem to figure out exact numbers.

    1. No question atmosphere is plenty cold for snow tomorrow night. I am concerned
      about temps and wind direction.

    2. Hadi-Our software extrapolates the data from the NAM output. I got no problem sharing. I am quite sure it is probably available free on the web somewhere. Maybe not quite as fast we get it, but I am sure its out there. Let me ask around.

    1. Was just going to post that. Looks like a tad cooler. We’ll see.
      waiting. zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

      1. NAM has come more around. Looks like 1-3 or 2-4 then sleet and/or frz rain. Looks like the aspirin I gave it Helped. lol

        I guess I have to change my tune. see what 12z brings

  20. We can’t forget the leading edge will be drying up, I think nam is overdoing it also, a scattered coatings to 2 inches, not much moisture when it comes through

  21. NAM looks colder some sleet mixing in maybe but no rain. Again much better folks on here tonight who could analyze more then me.

  23. I think you will see NAM come around even more tomorrow. QPF looks around .60 at KBOS. Correct me if I am wrong JMA 🙂 my wife always does 🙂

    Charlie the 0z tonight trended colder from 18z/12z.

  25. What cracks me is Pete B just a day ago says 3-6 inches and then looks at 2 NAM runs and changes his mind. I am an arm chair weather guy and I know not to do that.

      1. Im thinking on the low side of that due to its fast moving, I would be surprised to see Boston come in with 6 inches even though I wish 🙂

  27. It’s somewhat silly to get excited about a couple inches of snow around these parts, it goes to show how weak this winter is. I just want enough snow to take my 2.4 year old out and play on Saturday. He went bonkers the other day when he saw some snow 🙂

  29. Hadi-you are right. Just under .6 in Boston about half of which falls as snow. It is about .4 in Worcester and Springfield. NAM is too warm. Bringing a mix all the way to NH border. My thoughts, Keep it colder, mainly snow, cut the QPF. A general 2-4″ event.

    So tomorrow night Coating to 2″. Lowest amounts in the valleys, highest amounts Berkshires, Worcester Hills and the hill SW of Boston into the Hills of Northern RI and CT.

    Saturday a quick moving cold system, 2-4″ in general for the region.

  30. @ Hadi/Vicki – thx for the welcome, I am an ex-Pat from the BZ blog last winter. I got in touch w/Coastal in October when I was looking for more insights on the late October storm. Enjoying the blog and thankful it is available – I love all things weather.

  31. tonight clear cold lows in the single digits
    thursday sunny increasing clouds some snow snow showers lateand cool highs in the upper 20s
    thursday night snow developing lows in the mid 20s
    friday snow ending early sunny late highs in the low 30s
    friday night becoming cloudy lows in the mid 10s
    saturday. cloudysnow or mix ??? where does the storm track
    saturday night cloudy ?? lows in the upper 10s
    sunday mostly cloudy to partly cloudy
    sunday night increasing clouds a chance of snow showers lows in the mid 20s
    monday chance of snow,sleet and ice in the morning then afternoon rain showers. highs in the low 40s

  32. If this pans out it will be nice to wake up Friday morning with snow on the ground just like the other morning.
    Snow Index at 1 tomorrow night and for Saturday but the Saturday one could change. One thing is for sure no blockbuster with either event. Finally some snow to track.

  33. So still sticking with 1-3 inches tonight with most likely 1-2 inches in Boston. For Saturday we had a slight shift in track further south so QPF looks less but keeps cold air in play for Boston. Have to watch that eventual track to see if it goes even further south or nudges north. I think JMA 2-4 is probably a good bet at this point unless a shift happens either way.

    1. Agree……if anything on storm track, ever so slightly south. I think we may look back in a couple of weeks and after looking at recorded temps and some snowfall, be able to identify a regime change date somewhere in this period.

  34. Overall, I think this is going to be a cloudy stretch. Some sun this morning and early afternoon and some Friday. Other than that, Saturday, Sunday, Monday and into Tuesday look winter gloomy.

    I think it snows Saturday and accumulates all the way to the Cape Cod bridges.

    Have a good day all !

  35. up to 2 inches of snow for areas inside of 495 and south of the pike
    2-4 inches north of the pike and outside of 495 ( high terrain will see the best chance of seeing 4 and 3 inch amounts) this will be generally a light to periodic moderate snows.
    saturday where ever it stays snow i think 4-8 inches are possible( as well as areas inside 495 that stay as all snow). areas that mix with sleet and freezing rain inside of 495 ends with 2-4 inches with up to 2 inches southeast mass ,cape and islands
    what ever snow we get i think we will see it gone by the end of next week.

  36. Matt I wish I had your optimistic outlook for Saturday. The high up north is a little stronger then previously modeled thus pushing the system a little and beat forcing remains south of our area. I also see no mix north of lets say Plymouth. We need to now cheer for the NAM as it bring most QPF up here:) what a reversal from 24 hrs ago.

  38. Captain welcome to the blog. Watch out for anyone who has to travel during the overnight hours as it could become a little slick. Snow Index at 1 since will be under 4 inches. The Saturday storm system is not a big storm but is also a fast mover. Highest accumulation across the interior where I am thinking a 3-5 inches and 2-4 for areas near the coast.

  40. BZ this am has widespread 1-3″ though less in Boston and south for 1st event. Also has a widespread 3-6″ for Sat and perhaps less in the city and south.

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