Monday October 11 2021 Forecast (7:57AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 11-15)

The South Coast rain moved offshore overnight, and other than a few pockets of drizzle from leftover low level moisture via the onshore air flow, we’ll be seeing improving weather today. This is the first and probably only time that Columbus Day will also be Marathon Monday due to the pandemic-rescheduled Boston Marathon. The weather for the race will be decent. A patch of drizzle dampened the ground at the Hopkinton start line to the west of Boston, but things will dry out there in the next little while (I write this update just before the race start waves get underway). As both elite early runners and the waves of additional participants and runners make their way along the course they will run into a light head wind, temperatures rising through the 60s, and moderately humid air by October standards (it won’t feel like mid summer humidity). All-in-all, not too bad. The set-up of high pressure to the north and low pressure to the south that has created this weather will be shifting as the high builds over the region through Tuesday, which ends up being a fair and mild day. The mild air continues through mid week and into late week with mostly fair weather, but the remains of a weakening / dissipate trough coming in from the west on Wednesday with bring some cloudiness and the slight chance of a shower.

TODAY: Early drizzle patches end. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 64-71. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 52-59. Wind SSE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 52-59. Wind S under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of a shower. Highs 67-74. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 52-59. Wind S to variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 69-76. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 52-59. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 71-78. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 16-20)

Low pressure passes north of New England October 16 with current timing suggesting an early-day warm front passage and a late-day cold front passage. This brings the opportunity for a couple rounds of showers and even a few thunderstorms. This will be followed by gusty wind, dry and cooler weather to round out the weekend on October 17. After this, high pressure moves over the region with dry weather and moderating temperatures into the middle of next week.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 21-25)

High pressure will try to hang on to start the period but at some point a stronger westerly flow brings a weather system and air mass change. Fine-tuning to be done in the days ahead.

26 thoughts on “Monday October 11 2021 Forecast (7:57AM)”

  2. Although this warmer than average Sept and Oct is creating quite a warm sea surface temperature anomaly. Current temp at Boston buoy is 62 + and average is 56 and change.. That is nearly 6 degrees above average.
    That is very significant and Will have an effect on ant early seeson snow, if there is even a set up for that. Next weeks temp prospects are not going to help.

    Always something around these parts.

    Looks like a below average snow season coming up. I hope things change

    1. Too soon to forecast above or below normal snow. We only have a few puzzle pieces so far. The ECMWF seasonal forecast is hardly a useful tool. A coin flip is better than that piece of garbage. 🙂

      The ocean temperature anomaly can be impacted by circulation too so it can quickly get to near normal. Although I suspect the weather pattern in late October and early November is going to help it get there in rather short order.

  5. Thank you, TK. Going for one last attempt to seed lawn today. Hoping above normal temps will give it time to take hold

  6. Thanks TK.

    This will probably be the last “official” Columbus Day here in America as there is a lot of pressure from Native Americans. I heard that they plan to lobby Congress and the WH. As of today, the city of Boston no longer recognizes “Columbus Day” as per order from Acting Mayor Kim Janey.

  10. While it was downright chilly in southwest Maine the short time I was there this weekend, it feels nice and mild, bordering on early summer here in Marshfield today. Decent amount of sun currently.

  12. As usual, my Weekly Outlook is very similar to TK’s: https://stormhq.blog/2021/10/11/weekly-outlook-october-11-17-2021/

    I have a tradition that I always go to the Sox game on Patriots Day. I’ve been to every one since 1987 (except for the years there was no game for various reasons). Well, around here, we use Patriots Day and Marathon Monday interchangeably, except this year. So, even though I did go on Patriots Day this year, I’m keeping the same tradition alive by going to the Sox game on Marathon Monday too. I’ve got seats down in the RF corner in the front row.

    2. I apologize for not sharing that earlier. I meant to do it then got distracted and I think when I came back my brain thought I already had! WHOOPS.

  13. SAK, you do know that you’ll be the recipient of a Kyle Schwarber homerun tonight. Just, no fan interference, let it land in your lap.

    1. Indeed! We are spoiled in this town, with all of our teams. I just calculated that the Sox have been in 21 playoff series since 2003 and only lost 6 of those series. That’s a remarkable record.

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