16 thoughts on “C-19 Chat Post – October 13 2021”

  1. Thanks TK!

    At Hopkinton High School, masks are now optional due to 80% vaccination rate.

    Is “80%” going to be the benchmark for lifting mask mandates in public spaces as a general rule of thumb?

    1. I was just reading an article. Masks can be optional but a decision hasn’t been made. 80% has been the number since before the start of school. Hopkinton is a smaller school and has done well with only a couple of positives each week. I need to find out if unvaccinated would still have to mask if the schools ends up removing masks for those who are vaccinated.

      https://www.nbcboston.com/news/coronavirus/hopkinton-high-school-could-be-1st-in-mass-to-lift-mask-mandate/2514948/

  2. I heard an interesting but not surprising comment when listening to a school committee meeting. Not Sutton. A principal commented that this year is far more challenging and difficult than last year with remote.

  3. On school policies, I think the public school systems can sometimes learn from the private schools. There are two in my neighborhood. Both have been open since September 2020, with compulsory masking and distancing among adults (parents, teachers). I see the kids in the Esplanade Park during breaks – all with masks, all laughing and having a good time at recess. Both schools have dress codes, which may help explain why they don’t mind wearing the masks. It’s just one more thing to put on to ensure you conform. I also see that the windows on the two old school buildings are often open, even in winter during mild stretches.

    1. Good comment. Private schools have an interesting approach. I talked to a few parents out this way. Also, even though younger, I remember some of my experience.

      Parents of kids in private schools do not send kids with covid. They know that if they do, kids will have to quarantine and everyone will know why. Parents of kids in public schools do send kids with covid.

      I will say that both private schools I happen to drive when school has just been dismissed are in large groups Without masks.

      Part of the problem though is that there are fewer kids in private which allows for distancing. Of course there were fewer kids and distancing in Public schools last year because of remote and fewer positive cases.

      You gave me an idea. Depending on my level of laziness, I might track private schools cases also.

    2. Wearing masks at recess outdoors seems a bit draconian now that we know more about the virus in those settings.

  4. Burn-out among ER and ICU healthcare workers (doctors, nurses, orderlies) is real. It’s not talked about enough here in this country.

    Just read an article on the Dutch Covid situation, which is much better than ours (much higher rate of and better targeted vaccinations). Still, public health officials are very concerned about the late fall and winter. I mentioned this in a post yesterday. As one official said in today’s article, “if our ICU numbers increase, some doctors and nurses will not be to handle the psychological stress.” Current ICU numbers are fairly low (and much lower than the U.S. – also lower than Massachusetts), but the official warned that he predicts a substantial increase in the next 4 to 6 weeks, and “we must do what we can to prevent this from happening.”

    1. Thanks,Joshua. I worry about any mask removal as late fall and winter approach. There is already a nasty cold virus spreading we needed to stop cow towing to the loudest (and often least knowledgeable) voices and use common sense.

  5. Dutch case and hospitalization numbers are rising. Cases have increased 50% in one week. Other European nations have begun to see increases, too. And, Gottlieb and so many others have declared repeatedly that the U.S. caseload/hospitalizations will be at “very low levels” by Thanksgiving. Based on what evidence, Scott et al.? Makes no sense whatsoever. We’ll see a continuing decline off of the Delta peak for a bit this month, just as the UK began to in July and Europe in August. Then, like clockwork, our numbers will plateau and then rise. Yes, also in Massachusetts. Why we think we’re somehow immune to these trends, I have no idea. American optimism is great, but when it’s misplaced it’s stupid, really.

    The U.S. follows in the footsteps of Europe, with roughly a 4 to 6 week lag. Happens every time. Furthermore, seasonality will play a role. Europe is having a relatively cool but mostly normal autumn. Naturally, all activities shift indoors. The same will happen here.

    1. Note, a lot of the infections being seen in Holland are breakthroughs and reinfections (~15-25% of total). Breakthroughs tend not to be a problem for younger folks. But, in at-risk groups they’re a major problem. This is the primary reason for boosters, in my opinion. Israel gets it. They’re boosting like crazy across wide swaths of the population and getting excellent results. Their declining numbers in cases and hospitalizations are very significant, following the national booster campaign.

  6. Two things caught my attention in the news today:

    1. Singapore is experiencing a case surge, despite being 83% fully vaccinated. It’s hard to pinpoint what the reason is. There’s some suspicion that it may be a mutated version of Delta: The AY.23 Delta sub-lineage has almost totally displaced the ancestral B.1.617.2 Delta. The latter totally dominates in the U.S. at the moment. Will AY.23 displace it?

    2. Somewhat related: In an interview on CNN with the two persons perhaps most responsible for the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine (besides the bench researcher from Hungary), the Turkish couple express concern about vaccine evasion. https://twitter.com/camanpour/status/1447986528513372162

    1. Clarify point #1: In Singapore (not the U.S.; at least not yet) the AY.23 Delta sub-lineage has almost totally displaced the ancestral B.1.617.2 Delta.

        1. Probably many. It’s a successful lineage. Not that it `knows’ that. But, the virus has found its groove with Delta.

          By the way, the UK situation is deteriorating. Not like the big surge in the winter, but still a rather grim situation with exhausted healthcare workers and a system that’s constantly under pressure. I can guarantee you all that this is what we will be seeing in the Northeast as well. Again, not a massive surge, by any means, but a growing wave and slow burn. https://twitter.com/seahorse4000/status/1448326101651054596

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