Friday October 15 2021 Forecast (7:29AM)

41 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 15-19)

High pressure has shifted to the east but we still have a generally dry and very mild October day today, just with more cloudiness than yesterday. A warm front passing by may produce a brief shower especially north and west of Boston tonight, and it will feel a little bit like summer on Saturday with a gusty south to southwest wind, higher humidity, and warm air in place. But it all comes to an end Saturday night when a strong cold front sweeps across the region from west to east, accompanied by showers, a gusty, shifting wind, and a temperature drop. This leads to a Sunday that will feature a sun/cloud mix and perhaps a passing shower due to an upper level trough over the region, and more seasonable air moving in. This will continue into Monday, which will be cooler still. As winds drop off Monday night, under a clear sky we may see some of the first frost of the season in the interior lower elevations, and Tuesday itself looks fair and slightly milder as high pressure moves into the region.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, favoring central MA and southern NH. Patchy fog. Lows 52-59. Wind SE to SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 70-77. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers and a chance of thunderstorms west to east. Lows 53-60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Slight chance of a brief passing shower. Highs 60-67. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 58-65. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy frost possible interior lower elevations. Lows 38-45. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 20-24)

The trend is for more low pressure troughing to show up in eastern Canada and while we have fair and milder weather on October 20 the next unsettled weather system follows toward mid period with shower activity followed by another shot of cool air if things play out as expected.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 25-29)

Continuing the idea from the days before this, a little more up and down in the temperature pattern but with a tendency for more cool air to win out. Fairly dry pattern overall but still some minor rainfall threats possible.

41 thoughts on “Friday October 15 2021 Forecast (7:29AM)”

    1. Our students have their Homecoming Dance tomorrow night as well. We have a huge wedding tent in the parking lot. Wishing the same thing, SSK! Hope the tent doesn’t ending up flying from the school in Middleborough to my backyard in Taunton! :0

    1. Here’s how some climate sites rank for the month-to-date thus far:

      Concord 2
      Boston 5
      Worcester 5
      Providence 6
      Hartford 10
      Blue Hill 14

      Boston is has a mean temp of 63.3 thus far in October, which trails:

      1954 64.2
      1990 64.0
      2017 64.0
      1983 63.7

      1. If you’re curious, year-to-date rankings for the same cities:

        Boston Tied for 1st (with 2010 and 2012)
        Concord 4
        Worcester 4
        Providence 4
        Hartford 8
        Blue Hill 8

          1. Not always. I have snowfall data for Lowell back to 1929. Did a little analysis. I pulled all the years where Oct/Nov combined were 2 degrees above normal or warmer. There were 14 of them total, and 10 of them had below normal snowfall. If you change the threshold to 3 degrees above normal, there are 6 such periods, and 3 had below normal snowfall. Change the threshold again to 4 degrees above normal (Lowell is currently running around 4 above normal for the 1st half of October), and you’re down to 3 such periods, 2 of which featured above normal snowfall.

      2. Right up there for sure, with opportunities to go higher.
        I wonder where Boston will rank for the entire month?

  13. Hi all! Been a little slow to check in these days. Been super-busy.

    Mom’s had some appointments recently and FINALLY after a few years of me trying to tell everybody that she has asymptomatic atrial fib (which probably was the cause of her stroke) she was given a heart monitor and lo and behold, didn’t it register episodes of asymptomatic a-fib?? You bet! So I’ve wanted her to be on a new heart med and a blood thinner for a long time as well as having a cardiologist to visit instead of just the regular doc. Well, now she is on new meds for heart, BP, blood thinner, and is about to visit her new cardiologist. I am slightly disappointed with “the system”. I don’t think they are going to come up with a seasonal forecast before I do, so why should I be making diagnoses before they can?

    Anyway, I’m just glad it’s heading in the right direction!

    As far as the weather goes…. I haven’t even looked at any 12z info yet, so I’ll do that and get back to y’all on any new ideas… 🙂

    1. Well done, TK. There is a reason so many new businesses have cropped up the provide advocates. Your mom is truly blessed to have you as her advocate.

  14. Ok… Weather-related this time!

    Short term: No changes to thinking through weekend. I’m just in the process of fine-tuning the timing on the cold front’s showers. The warm front coming by tonight / early hours of Saturday doesn’t do much except a few showers mainly well N & W of Boston. The cold front chugs along but it late enough that we get a rain-free day in Saturday. I think whatever is left of 1 or 2 lines of showers (maybe embedded thunder) gets to the Hartford & Worcester areas around 7:30PM and into the Boston-Providence corridor around 9:30PM. I know some of you live near the South Shore and I think that area sees the activity around or after 10PM.

    I also think it should be offshore long before sunrise on Sunday, but we may still see a few pop-up passing showers during the day on Sunday with the colder air aloft which makes the atmosphere unstable. I don’t expect too many showers, just a few, so if you have outdoor plans Sunday, don’t cancel them. But be ready for a gusty wind and it feeling much cooler than it did in the days leading up to it…

    Frost Tuesday morning? First glance at the guidance says “nope, too much wind” but sometimes when you see gradient on the maps that looks like it would be too breezy, you still manage to get the winds to diminish to nearly calm in the valleys, which radiate out nicely. So I would not rule out some first frosts in those types of locations. You can get frost when the low temp (recorded at standard height) is in the upper 30s or even lower 40s in some cases because it can be several degrees colder right at the ground, so if that temp makes it to 32 right in those lowest few inches, literally, you’ll get your frost.

    Longer term: I didn’t do much looking here – just glancing at the 12z ECMWF & GFS operational models. Based on those, not changing anything I wrote this morning. Re-evaluation tomorrow.

    Blog update MAY be a touch late tomorrow morning as I may make a run to the coast for sunrise if I think there will be enough breaks in the clouds to make it picturesque.

  15. A TON OF LOVE AND HUGS FOR YOUR MOM AND CHEERS FOR YOU. Yes, I’m yelling…..it is because I’m hoping she can hear me all the way from here!

  16. TK – Did you and/or your Mom get the booster yet? From what I can tell, I am the only WHW member to get it so far.

    Of course, mine was the Pfizer, which was the first pharmaceutical to produce a booster.

    Speaking of boosters, according to Dr. Shashish Jia, annual boosters will be likely for everyone for the foreseeable future much like the current flu shot. The Delta variant isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. Oh well.

    Btw, Dr. Jia was interviewed on this evening’s PBS Newshour.

    2. There is one other who has had the third vaccine, but you are correct….not many have. But then eligibility is specific

  17. Can’t wait until next week, though I’m not complaining about the weather this week. It’s been nice. But, some nice crisp days would be good. A near-frost would slow down the insects. I’m still dealing with mosquitoes. Have a large welt on my forearm.

    1. I’ve always found it interesting how us city folk who stay indoors more, yet can get mosquito bites. 😉

      It’s only going to get warm again late next week/weekend. We still can’t seem to get any sustained chill around here. Not even in NNE. Will November continue the well above normal temp regime?

      1. We haven’t been in a pattern to bring in sustained cool air. That’s been in the West.

        As for a warm-up next weekend? Not seeing it. The “warm up” will probably take place October 21-22 and be rather short-lived at that.

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