Saturday October 16 2021 Forecast (8:24AM)

43 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 16-20)

A warm front has lifted northeastward through the region during the overnight hours and for the day today we are in an air mass that will remind you of the warm and humid days of summertime, although we’ll have an increasing south and southwest wind to contend with. It will remain rain-free through the daylight hours, but a strong cold front approaching from the west will bring a round or two of showers and the chance of a thunderstorm across the region from west to east this evening and overnight. The front will clear the coastline before dawn Sunday and any lingering showers will pull offshore no later than dawn for easternmost areas, if not before that. The air mass behind this front is one more seasonable for this time of year, and after a handful of warm days, you’ll notice a significant change. Sunday will become our second consecutive breezy day, something we have not seen much of this month, which for parts of the region has been the least-windy October in 4 decades. We’ll have to watch for at least some clouds scurrying across the sky Sunday, and a few of them may build enough to produce passing rain showers, but don’t cancel any apple picking plans over that potential. Monday through Wednesday will feature dry weather across the area. High pressure will stretch from the Ohio Valley into the Middle Atlantic and Southeast states while low pressure wraps up and hangs out over the Maritime Provinces of Canada. This puts our region in a cool northwesterly air flow for Monday, which then gradually relaxes as the low loses its grip and the high slides a bit further east, allowing winds to slowly relax and temperatures to slightly moderate as we head toward the middle of this week. I’ve talked about the threat of the first frost for some interior lower elevations Tuesday morning. This threat still exists for both Tuesday and possibly Wednesday mornings depending on what the wind does and how low the dew point gets.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 70-77. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers and a chance of thunderstorms west to east. Lows 53-60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Slight chance of a brief passing shower. Highs 60-67. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 57-64. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy frost possible interior lower elevations. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH but may drop to near calm in valley areas.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy frost possible interior lower elevations. Lows 37-44. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 21-25)

Milder October 21 as low pressure tracks across southeastern Canada bringing a cold front into the region with a shower threat either late October 21 or sometime October 22. Watch for a wave of low pressure which may bring some wet weather to start the October 23-24 weekend followed by a shot of drier and much cooler air. High pressure would bring fair and seasonably cool weather to end the period if things play out as expected.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 26-30)

High pressure should be in control early and again late period with an unsettled weather threat mid period. Too soon for any details.

43 thoughts on “Saturday October 16 2021 Forecast (8:24AM)”

  8. Thank you TK!
    If anyone is interested, Eric Fisher will be at Tree House Brewery in Charlton ma, between 11:00 and 2:00 today for the signing of his new book. The book is titled Mighty Storms of New England. I will be taking a trip up there to purchase a copy and have him sign it, seeing that I live only 5 minutes away. Tree House has had some offerings rated best in the country, and for those of you who enjoy coffee they roast their own premium beans. I will be there around noon if anyone else will be there let me know and we can introduce ourselves and make it a mini weather conference.

    https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1449161496840314882?s=21

    1. This is awesome. Sounds like a must purchase for me.

      Can’t make it, but many thanks for posting.

      Please share with us your thoughts on the book as you read it.

      Thanks again.

  10. Thanks TK.

    Had my last DD iced coffee of the year this morning. With this anomalous fall humidity, I couldn’t resist. Should be a “hot” DD coffee come early tomorrow morning, likely the rest of the year into at least early next! 🙂

    1. I stop at Dunkin or Honey Dew to grab a beverage for my drive to work every afternoon. Usually in the summer it’s Iced Tea. In the winter if I’m tired it’ll be a coffee, but on those chilly days it’s hot chocolate. Haven’t had a hot chocolate yet this fall, which is getting kinda late into the season. That’ s how I know when fall has arrived. I’m sensing that Monday could be the first hot chocolate afternoon of the season.

      1. I got a Honey Dew iced coffee yesterday. Today will probably be a DD iced on may way to the beach for my October foot dip late in the day (Red Sox in the ears).

        I haven’t gotten a hot chocolate for quite some time. I like that and I do like the DD vanilla chai now and then when it’s much cooler outside.

  11. NWS office at Norton is poo-pooing and severe threat for today, even in Western Sections.

    Strong cold front will enter western MA toward 00z and sweep
    across SNE tonight, moving east of the Cape after 06z. Robust
    mid level trough and favorable upper jet dynamics will result in
    a strongly forced convective line moving east from eastern New
    York State late this afternoon, with the line of showers and
    embedded t-storms moving into western MA/CT 5-8 pm. All the hi-
    res CAMS are suggesting the convective line will weaken as it
    moves into western new Eng as instability diminishes to near
    zero. Wind gust potential will be limited by the lack of
    instability and low level jet outrunning the cold front a bit.
    Current thinking is there could be isolated gusts 35-45 mph as
    the line moves through western New Eng. However, will need to
    closely monitor instability trends. If instability overachieves,
    potential for a few damaging wind gusts would increase.
    Anomalous PWATs support brief heavy downpours, but the quick
    movement will limit rainfall amounts to less than one inch.

    1. I’m not overly excited about it, outside of just some potentially damaging wind gusts impacting vulnerable trees.

  12. Thank you, TK.

    While I think the Astros are a very good team and will likely beat the Sox in the ALCS, I was not pleased with Correa’s showmanship last night. He hit a 350 foot homerun and acted like it was a Reggie Jackson blast (or, for that matter, a Kike Hernandez homerun – Kike hit 2 homers; 450 and 425 feet, respectively). It’s the taking off his wrist bands at homeplate before the ball had even landed and pointing at his watch that really ticked me off. Flip the bat, fine. Admire the homer, fine. But the other antics were silly and uncalled for. Show some humility, like Alex Cora has, for the cheating that went on in Houston for years. I hope Eovaldi drills him in the thigh tonight.

    1. I’m hearing that this is not as widespread as it was not too many years ago. It is what spoiled my interest in baseball.

      1. Probably not today. But it was a major problem several years ago in Houston. Alex Cora was the bench coach of the Astros, and essentially ring leader. Cheating continued in 2018 with the Red Sox when Cora became their manager. Evidently, the Sox didn’t cheat to the extent that the Astros did. Nevertheless.

        To his credit, Cora owns up to what he did. Doesn’t make excuses. Answers the questions. The contrast between him and so many other managers and coaches in baseball and other sports is conspicuous.

        I’m not naive to think that cheating doesn’t go on in other sports. It does. But, the scandal that rocked baseball several years was a gut punch.

        Today, the Astros players kind of relish being the bad boys. It’s odd, in a way. Houston is a very talented team, with an organization that really transformed a moribund outfit into a juggernaut over a relatively short period of time. I don’t think they need to cheat to be better. But, they felt they had to have an edge.

        1. I hope the Red Sox can at least play the 3 games at Fenway. They really could have won last night.

          Red Sox need “lights out” pitching and keep the Astros to two runs or less.

  14. I picked up my signed copy and dropped a good word for the whw blog.
    Beautiful mid October day!!

    1. Awesome. I am waiting for it to be released in audio format. It may be a long wait, so I might give in and get it.

  16. Sox are relentless. JD Martinez with a grand slam in the 1st. I have a lot of respect for this team’s resilience. I do think that starts with the manager. Cora’s attitude is tremendous.

  21. Some tweets from weather folks asking any updates from Dalton, Ma. One tweet mentioned rt 9 from dalton to Windsor closed with multiple trees down

  22. Sorry, but I am laughing here. Tornado warning and everyone is watching the game……..fair WEATHER fans 🙂 🙂 🙂

    Yes, I’ll step away from the mike now

    1. haha!!

      I was watching and photographing an epic sunset at Hampton Beach while listening to the game in my ears while the tornado warning was ongoing. 😉

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