Monday October 18 2021 Forecast (7:32AM)

44 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 18-22)

A cool northwesterly air flow will dominate our weather today and while a trough swings through overhead we’ll have a sun/cloud mix and the chance of a couple pop-up rain showers. The cool air hangs in Tuesday with a breeze, but less clouds as the upper trough pulls away, then heading into midweek high pressure slips to the south of New England and eventually off the Mid Atlantic Coast as we see dry weather and temperature moderating here. A warm front will cross our region early Thursday with some cloudiness and perhaps a few raindrops, but this will be a short-lived event and much of the day ends up fair, mild, and breezy. By later Thursday, low pressure will be moving from the Great Lakes into southeastern Canada and a cold front will be approaching by that evening or night time with a rain shower threat, carrying into Friday as the front moves through the region. By late Friday, we will be experiencing the arrival of another cool air mass from Canada.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Slight chance of a passing rain shower this afternoon. Highs 57-64. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy frost possible interior lower elevations. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH but may drop to near calm in valley areas.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy frost possible interior lower elevations. Lows 37-44. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear evening. Increasing clouds overnight. Patchy ground fog interior low elevations. Lows 41-48. Wind WSW under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny morning with brief light rain possible. Partly to mostly sunny thereafter. Highs 62-69. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 52-59. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers, mainly during the morning. Highs 60-67. Wind SW shifting to NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 23-27)

October 23-24 weekend temperatures will likely run below normal here. What’s uncertain is whether it’s a mainly dry weekend (with a few passing pop sprinkles) or if it starts wetter with coastal low pressure passing by Saturday. Leaning toward that low staying far enough offshore for dry weather right now, but need to watch it. High pressure brings dry weather mid period before the next disturbance approaches from the west with milder air but also a rain shower threat by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 28 – NOVEMBER 1)

Increasing uncertainty for the pattern. We’ve had guidance project a continued west to east flow with up and down temperatures including more chilly air, and we’ve had other guidance project the evolution of a blocking pattern with high pressure to the north, low pressure to the south, and this area on the edge of some stormier weather. A very low confidence outlook leans toward a westerly flow slowly evolving toward a block, some unsettled weather which will be impossible to time this far out, and a tendency for cooler air more than warmer air.

44 thoughts on “Monday October 18 2021 Forecast (7:32AM)”

  7. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Even though the Pats were clearly over matched, they certainly hung in there and had a real chance. Mac’s unfortunate interception did not help the cause. Even though he redeemed himself, the Pats D was a sieve and Dallas easily scored.

    When the Pats did not score a TD on their possession in OT, I knew the game was over.

    Oh well. Another learning experience for Mac. I think he is going to be SOMETHING!

    1. At best they match their 7-9 record from last season, and that’s assuming they get a streak going the second half of the season. Watch out in 2022 though! The kid still has a lot to learn.

  10. It was close, if Logan got under 50F, it was a bit after sunrise.

    Tonight’s likely to get it done if it didn’t officially last night.

  11. We dropped to 41 but I seem to recall we hit 39 once several weeks ago. I thought it might get into the high 30s since it dropped so quickly early night.

  13. Ocean temperature at Boston Buoy currently sits at 62.06

    Average is: 54.92

    Departure is + 7.14 degrees.

    That is quite substantial!

    1. My memory is undoubtedly playing tricks, but I thought the ocean temp in Scituate for the New Year 2012 plunge was 63

      1. Sorry, No way, Impossible.

        Average for New Years day is 42.26 with Standard deviation
        of 2.1 degrees, Which means 68% chance temp would be
        between 40.25 and 44.27
        and a 95% chance between 38,24 and 46.28

        That is IF I imported all of the historical data correctly from the NOAA site for buoys

          1. Whatever it was, it was warm. I found this on New Years even 2011. I knew 63 had to be wrong since it struggles to get to 70 often enough in summer. Is there a history of buoy temps a where

            Dec 29, 2011…” Even the Buoy around Acadia National Park in far downeast Maine is reporting 46F”

            1. I downloaded the historical data for 2011.
              December is all screwed up with wackadoodle temperatures.

              Here is 12/29/2011, 4th from right is water temp, so you can see what I mean.

              2011 12 29 00 50 229 2.5 5.6 99.00 99.00 99.00 999 1001.2 1.9 3.2 -5.1 99.0 99.00
              2011 12 29 01 50 231 3.2 6.1 99.00 99.00 99.00 999 1002.2 1.2 2.4 -6.0 99.0 99.00
              2011 12 29 02 50 249 2.8 6.4 99.00 99.00 99.00 999 1003.6 0.3 1.5 -6.7 99.0 99.00
              2011 12 29 03 50 231 2.5 6.0 99.00 99.00 99.00 999 1004.3 -0.3 0.8 -7.4 99.0 99.00
              2011 12 29 04 50 230 2.7 6.8 99.00 99.00 99.00 999 1004.6 -0.5 0.3 -7.6 99.0 99.00
              2011 12 29 05 50 235 2.6 6.6 99.00 99.00 99.00 999 1005.1 -0.5 0.0 -7.8 99.0 99.00
              2011 12 29 06 50 230 2.0 5.7 99.00 99.00 99.00 999 1005.8 -0.8 -0.3 -8.4 99.0 99.00
              2011 12 29 07 50 238 2.0 5.4 99.00 99.00 99.00 999 1006.7 -1.3 -0.7 -9.2 99.0 99.00
              2011 12 29 08 50 242 2.6 6.8 99.00 99.00 99.00 999 1007.8 -1.7 -1.2 -10.1 99.0 99.00
              2011 12 29 09 50 228 2.1 5.4 99.00 99.00 99.00 999 1008.8 -2.4 -1.7 -11.1 99.0 99.00
              2011 12 29 10 50 245 2.2 6.3 99.00 99.00 99.00 999 1009.6 -2.8 999.0 -12.6 99.0 99.00
              2011 12 29 11 50 228 1.8 4.5 99.00 99.00 99.00 999 1011.1 -3.2 999.0 -12.9 99.0 99.00
              2011 12 29 12 50 234 1.8 5.1 99.00 99.00 99.00 999 1012.3 -3.6 999.0 -13.9 99.0 99.00
              2011 12 29 13 50 232 1.5 3.8 99.00 99.00 99.00 999 1013.2 -3.0 999.0 -12.9 99.0 99.00
              2011 12 29 14 50 235 2.0 5.0 99.00 99.00 99.00 999 1014.2 -2.1 -0.7 -13.3 99.0 99.00
              2011 12 29 15 50 233 1.9 4.7 99.00 99.00 99.00 999 1013.6 -1.4 1.3 -13.7 99.0 99.00
              2011 12 29 16 50 203 0.9 2.2 99.00 99.00 99.00 999 1013.0 0.5 4.1 -10.3 99.0 99.00
              2011 12 29 17 50 224 1.2 3.4 99.00 99.00 99.00 999 1012.9 1.6 7.8 -11.2 99.0 99.00
              2011 12 29 18 50 201 0.6 1.8 99.00 99.00 99.00 999 1012.6 2.2 11.3 -12.2 99.0 99.00
              2011 12 29 19 50 170 0.7 2.0 99.00 99.00 99.00 999 1013.3 1.8 13.5 -10.7 99.0 99.00
              2011 12 29 20 50 183 0.7 1.7 99.00 99.00 99.00 999 1013.9 1.3 999.0 -9.4 99.0 99.00
              2011 12 29 21 50 162 0.8 1.8 99.00 99.00 99.00 999 1014.8 0.6 999.0 -7.8 99.0 99.00
              2011 12 29 22 50 206 0.7 2.3 99.00 99.00 99.00 999 1015.0 0.4 999.0 -7.9 99.0 99.00
              2011 12 29 23 50 215 1.0 2.8 99.00 99.00 99.00 999 1015.3 0.3 999.0 -8.5 99.0 99.00

              1. Omg. You are so nice. I will have to look ok closely as I don’t quite understand but do find interesting. I’m wondering if 46 was the number I’m trying to remember. Thank you

    2. 2011 downloaded perfectly. 2012 not so much but the answer is 43 for Jan 1, 2011. I have no idea why I wanted to put a 6 rather than a 4 since common sense dictates 63 is impossible.

      Thanks again for your help

  17. The latest NWS zone & point forecasts have dry weather, no mention of precipitation, for the coming 7 days. I don’t agree. 😉

    There will be precipitation added to at least one period of this forecast by tomorrow.

  18. We just had a healthy sun shower with a full rainbow and then a smaller rainbow ending on the hill behind our neighbor’s home. I could reach out and touch it. You have to look closely at the center of the second photo

    https://imgur.com/a/2yqd923

    1. Awesome! Nothing like that here, just layer stratocumulus as all the showers are well southwest and northeast of my location!

  20. From a very long time colleague of mine…
    I need to share more of his information.
    This is right on the button. He usually is…

    “It doesn’t take much effort to prove the mainstream wrong
    And you don’t have to go back that far either.

    From June 2016. Super El Nino did not produce big rains.
    https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/jimdalrympleii/drought-is-never-going-to-end

    Yes, it is BuzzFeed, but they got their info from a NASA climatologist.

    2016-17 had La Nina, and the common perception is only El Nino
    is good for big CA rains, and then this happened. From April 2017:
    https://www.kqed.org/news/11407012/the-rainy-season-of-2016-17-is-officially-one-for-the-record-books

    And in June 2019, denial in real-time. I guess there is more than one
    definition of “permanent?”
    https://twitter.com/mathius38/status/1139148507355537408

    From early Oct 2019:
    https://twitter.com/don_penim/status/1444669146982060033

    Now we have this coming for CA, which should put a huge dent
    in the current drought situation. This is quite amazing for Oct
    for CA.
    https://twitter.com/robmayeda/status/1450015987386896388

    Do you see a pattern here? They either do not understand how
    CA climo works, or just ignore it and only promote what fits
    their agenda/narrative. And the cycle keeps repeating itself.

    Alternating within a few years from drought to wet is normal
    for CA. So maybe those dry/wet extremes are intensifying due to
    AGW. So what, as long as the period cycle doesn’t change much.
    In the end it all average/balances out.

    As I said in an email this past July, there are 4 types of drought.
    One is socio-economic.

    So they say water levels and supply are more often very low and
    getting into record territory when drought occurs. Why though?
    Doesn’t seem to be due to any real changes in climo, but what does
    change every year?, population, and the demand for water, as both
    go up. Add in poor land/water management, and we are back again
    to things getting worse due to non-wx/climate factors.

    Added bonus: This early big rain puts an end early to the fire season
    in much of the West. October is often one of the worst months for
    the area due to climo of Santa Ana events. Not going to have this
    here.

    But all you’ll hear about is flooding and mudslides in CA and how
    bad it is for this upcoming event, not how the drought is getting taken
    care of. No sig wx event is w/o a downside, so it becomes a matter of
    choice — do you see the glass half-full or half-empty (no pun intended).
    What the mainstream chooses to emphasize and cover makes all the
    difference in the world from a public perception POV, no?”

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