Saturday October 23 2021 Forecast (8:58AM)

27 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 23-27)

A “not-too-bad” weekend will be followed by a stretch of cloudy, wet weather. We are now undergoing the transition into the blocking pattern that has been speculated about for a while with uncertainty as to the timing and exact orientation. Well, the timing is now, and the type of blocking pattern is known as a “Rex block” which is high pressure to the north, in this case centered over eastern Canada, especially Quebec, and upper level low pressure to its south, in this upcoming case generally over New England. Before we get to the unsettled weather though, the weekend won’t be all that bad. We have a weak disturbance moving through the region this morning with lots of clouds around but as the disturbance departs there will be enough drying of air to provide more episodes of sun mixed with clouds during the day. It will be noticeably cooler than the last several days, in face cooler than it has been much of this very mild month, but with the lack of wind it won’t feel that bad outside. Tonight’s sky is expected to end up mostly clear and with high pressure moving overhead, we have a set-up for strong radiational cooling, so it should be a chilly night and some interior locations will likely see their first frosts which are coming late this season. Sunday will feature more sunshine with high pressure over the region, but high cloudiness will begin to increase as we go through the afternoon in advance of approaching low pressure as our blocking sets up. And then it’s time for a period of wet weather with rain moving into and across the region late Sunday night into Monday, which likely tapers off for a while during the day Monday as the initial thrust of moisture moves to the north. But low pressure is going to move eastward and spin itself up across the region Monday night and Tuesday when a more widespread and significant rain is likely. By Wednesday, the low will be on a weakening trend while slowly departing, but improvement in weather will be slow and that day may end up remaining overcast and occasionally wet as well.

TODAY: Lots of clouds, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 56-63. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly clear overnight. Frost possible interior lower elevations. Lows 32-37 interior lower elevations, 38-43 elsewhere except 43-48 urban centers. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny then increasing high cloudiness later in the day. Highs 56-63. Wind W under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Thickening overcast. Rain arriving overnight. Lows 42-49. Wind calm evening then NE up to 10 MPH overnight.

MONDAY: Cloudy with rain tapering off during the morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs 52-59. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain returns. Areas of fog. Lows 41-48. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Overcast with rain and areas of fog. Highs 48-55. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Overcast with periods of rain and areas of fog. Lows 41-48. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain and drizzle. Highs 50-57. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 28 – NOVEMBER 1)

An unsettled weather pattern will continue with the block still in place, only starting to break down toward the end of the period. Currently I expect an intrusion of slightly drier air for October 28 before the next low pressure system impacts the region with more wet weather October 29 into October 30. This low should be weakening and pulling off to the east by late in the period with gradual improvement.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 2-6)

A more zonal (west-to-east) upper pattern is expected to become established during this time frame with fair weather more dominant, and variable but mostly near to slightly above normal temperatures. Given guidance performance in medium ranges of late though, this forecast is only low to moderate confidence.

27 thoughts on “Saturday October 23 2021 Forecast (8:58AM)”

  1. Thanks TK.

    It appears that prolific rains return where they left off from the summer. Eric showed a model of 2-4” potential regionwide. Sigh. I guess my basement should be used to it by now.

    5-6 days straight of rain??

    2. Different pattern really, and not a widespread 2-4 as I see it. Even so, it’s more spread out. And it’s also not 5 to 6 straight days of rain. There will be breaks. This is not a return to the pattern of summer.

      1. Eric said the same. Grass seed has taken and it will be nice to turn off the sprinklers and let nature take it from here

  3. Thanks TK.

    This is an interesting pattern setting up. A couple months from now, it’s definitely one we’d be eyeing for major winter storm potential. October 2011 ended similarly, though that time there was just enough cold around to add some white in with the wet. That won’t happen at least with the first couple systems this go around. My only difference in thinking versus TK right now is that I don’t see the block breaking down as quickly. I think it could hold towards mid-November. But timing the breakdown of a blocking pattern is a notorious challenge. If it does hold on for longer, and we do get more storminess, the chance of some early season snow will increase.

    In terms of heavy rain potential, a lot of the guidance is really trying to clock SNE somewhere in that late Monday-Tuesday timeframe with 2-4+”. I’m not sold on widespread amounts that high, but with this storm likely to be undergoing a “pivot” of sorts nearby, it’s a possibility at least on a localized basis. The storm for later next week has the makings of an underperformer on QPF.

    1. Definitely low confidence on the break down. I was wondering if we don’t temporarily break it only to go back to it for a while after that.

        1. I used to joke about this type of thing as the “reshuffle”. The pattern breaks down for a few days and things move eastward for a bit only to find the same pattern has returned again just days later.

  8. Son and family are spending the weekend on chabeague off of the coast of Maine this weekend. What a perfect weekend. They are having fresh caught mackerel for lunch.

  11. Models are really struggling with the coming storm and how multiple pieces of energy will (or won’t) come together, but we gotta keep a close eye on it in case it really wraps up. Something along the lines of the 18z GFS/RGEM would be *major* in terms of wind impacts, considering where the trees are at this year. Power outages for days or more if those runs verify…

    Seems like a low probability/high impact type of event at this stage. In other words, probably not a big deal, but worthy of keeping a close eye on in case those high end solutions are achieved.

    1. Yikes. Good point on trees. The majority of ours are still green and fully leafed. The early changers…and some were earlier than the past few years….turned and dropped leaves.

      What day is this?

  12. Down to 42. Lowest in several nights. My fire bowl ran out of propane and the reserve tank seems to be broken. I’ll be wearing a jacket out there tonight

  14. 18z EURO just went bonkers. (not what I am thinking right now but if it were to happen that would be so destructive. With that said wide spread in the GEFS and EPS ensembles.. Certainly interesting times ahead. Meanwhile down here on St. Thomas its cooling down a tad after several weeks of heat indexes well above 100 degrees with nearly no wind. today we at least had a breeze. Luckily for the second straight hurricane season we are looking good here for the USVI. Wondering if the MJO 8/1 will wake the tropics up a tad for a little bit. as we go into November. https://twitter.com/Souza101Matt/status/1452088347766280197
    https://imgur.com/a/9q1LEL1

  15. In addition to the 18z Euro (which would be devastating), add the 0z NAM to the list of “wow” model runs for this storm. 5-10″ of rain for most of SNE with hurricane force wind gusts near the coast. We really better hope this was a fluky set of guidance this evening… it’s certainly possible that it was, given how many moving parts are in play, but if these trends hold tomorrow there’s going to be a lot of scrambling to prepare going on…

    One positive either way – astronomical tides won’t be especially high during this event.

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