Monday October 25 2021 Forecast (7:37AM)

107 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 25-29)

A blocking pattern with high pressure in eastern Canada (Quebec) and low pressure to its south over our region means an unsettled and at times stormy stretch this week. Two storm systems will impact the region. The first of the two will be the most potent consisting of an initial low pressure area moving in from the west today and redeveloping south of New England tonight, doing a cyclonic loop while intensifying to its maximum just south of the region Tuesday before starting to move away Wednesday. This system will bring the most significant rain and wind to the region. The strongest winds will occur in coastal areas and higher elevations. Also keep in mind that we’re at a time of year where leaf drop is increasing, only to be enhanced by this type of weather, which can lead to slippery roads where leaves cover them and additional flooding where leaves block storm drains. A second low will have likely maxed out in intensity to the southwest of our region before it approaches later on Friday, but with the threat of more rain arriving sometime Friday night. Between these systems will be a drier interlude but not likely with much, if any, clearing.

TODAY: Cloudy with rain tapering off during the morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs 52-59. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Rain returns. Areas of fog. Lows 41-48. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Overcast with rain and areas of fog. Highs 48-55. Wind NE 15-25 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas and higher elevations where gusts above 40 MPH are possible.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Overcast with periods of rain and areas of fog. Lows 41-48. Wind NE 15-25 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas and higher elevations where gusts above 40 MPH are likely.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain and drizzle in the morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs 50-57. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 51-58. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain returns at night. Highs 52-59. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 30 – NOVEMBER 3)

Storm system impact the region with showery and breezy weather over the October 30-31 weekend, wettest Saturday, likely drying out somewhat Sunday for Halloween. Cooler, drier to start November but have to watch a frontal boundary for a wave of low pressure at some point.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 4-8)

We have to watch the atmosphere’s tendency to block again with another storm system possible in this period. With colder air nearby, we may even need to consider something other than rain at least for interior locations. But it’s very early and that’s highly speculative.

107 thoughts on “Monday October 25 2021 Forecast (7:37AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.
    You appear to be downplaying wind compared to NWS. Do you think NWS is in full hype mode? Thanks

  10. Thanks TK. When do you anticipate the rain starting up again tonight? We have tickets to the jack-o-lantern spectacular at Roger Williams Zoo tonight at 6pm. Would obviously prefer rain free since the tix are non-refundable.

    1. 12Z NAM for 8PM tonight indicates that you may be OK.
      Of course this likely would not show any drizzle that
      might be occurring. I am sure TK would provide much more info for you. Good luck and have fun.

  11. Sad to learn of the passing of Bob Neumeier at 70. Neumy, as people liked to call him, was affable, funny, and self-deprecating. He was also very knowledgeable about sports, especially hockey. He will be missed.

  14. Thanks TK.

    If this low, once it’s all “phased up”, backs into the coast via cyclonic loop, it will be really bad.

    I think the more likely scenario is it stays just far enough east that land areas avoid the worst of it. The satellite trends this morning with how robust the low off the Southeast coast looks right now lead me in that direction. But can’t rule out something like the 12z HRRR scenario, which would be one of the worst storms of any kind on record to hit SNE. Hours on hours of 55-75mph wind gusts with 3-6″ of rain and fully leafed trees.

    In short, about as low confidence/high impact a forecast as you will ever see. Extremely difficult to message.

  15. Thank you , TK.

    I have an appointment tomorrow morning in Warren, RI. What’s the rain/wind situation likely to be — both there and for the drive? Is the intense stuff expected to be later in the day?
    Thanks.

  16. To what WxWatcher was saying.

    12Z HRRR winds in knots at height of storm.

    https://ibb.co/2cZ8Hhy

    Notice swatch of 60-70 Knot gusts in the Immediate Boston Area? That represents 69 to 80 mph!
    And there is any area down by Newport, Fall RIver and New Bedford of 70-80 knot gusts of 80 to 92 mph!!!

    Note: 1 knot = 1.15078 mph.

    YIKES!!

    Now I am getting concerned!

  19. Thanks, TK…

    As a disciple of WHW and TK’s, I know to take models with a grain of salt and know they’re pretty much overdone sometimes. However, the 12z HRRR has a 72-mph wind gust over my house tomorrow night at 8 pm. Whether true or not, pretty impressive in my book.

    1. Phew. That is a doozer. I don’t know how to link to that although I might not understand it even if you sent one.

          1. I read it as 50 kts for my area. That may be wrong though. But it is where I got the 57. I did know to check to see if it is mph or knots. Mac was from a sailing family 😉

            2. Your area is in the 50 to 60 knot range
              or
              57.5 to 69 mph.
              I think that warrants a trampoline warning. 🙂

    2. Combine that HRRR with the 2 NAMS and it’s NOT looking good.
      Waiting on the GFS, UKMET and EURO. However, I am most
      interested in the 18Z NAMs and the 18Z HRRR. I want to see
      if they are still on for this wind event or if they back off a bit.

  20. Thanks TK. I got my battery powered radio and flash lights ready. I will be charging my cell phone tonight.

  21. Westerly, RI: Temp: 70F, dp: 65F

    New Haven, CT: 72F, 66F

    This isn’t going to make it to Marshfield, I don’t believe. 🙁 🙁 🙁

  23. Obviously they’re not going to get the coastal storm, but my Western Michigan family already has over 2 inches of rain from their piece of the action.

    And I’m thinking that Tuesday morning is probably a good call for my RI trip, rather than later…

  24. Tom I was thinking the same thing with schools there could be a power outage day Wednesday if those wind projections happen.

  27. Model guidance coming back to earth on the rain totals finally.

    Wind is an issue, but not for everyone. Although for some it may be a significant issue. I agree with WxW’s comments.

    I saw somewhere out there in non met weather land on social media that apparently NHC missed this “tropical”. Huh? They aren’t going to call it tropical because it’ll never be tropical. For one thing, the water temps are way too low. For another, it’s cold core.

  29. Philip re above.., even if there is power, there is no remote learning allowed in MA. Occasionally, it might be approved with an advance request. But basically no exceptions.

    1. Our super is on record saying that no school because of weather or emgergency days is no school. Kids should be kids and play in the snow.

      1. I agree with your super. BUT if we get a winter like in 2015, you’re facing having to go into late June if many days are lost. It’s happened for Boston schoolkids on a number of occasions over the years.

        Still, I do like your super’s thinking! 🙂

          1. I thought I either read or heard awhile back that VT was seriously considering doing away with snow days altogether and going full remote on those days. I would be curious as to how many snow days they average per winter season.

            And perhaps in light of the pandemic, their school districts may have changed their minds altogether. Haven’t heard either way.

    1. Thanks JJ. Puts south sutton in 30-40. That is pretty much what we’ve seen multiple times recently. It seems east of us won’t fair nearly that well.

  34. Where this storm is developing well off shore, therearen’t many data sources. Could we end up with some sort of surprise? Hmmm, it will be interesting to see it all unfold regardless.

    1. Well we have the main low coming from the west and heading into NJ area. There is a low pressure area off the Carolinas which ultimately becomes the main storm that gets captured by the upper low in the Rex and does the cyclonic loop. This set-up is more common than most people realize. We had at least one of these last autumn. The Perfect Storm was a deluxe version of this with a slightly different version and scale of the set-up, hence the more “100-year storm” (ugh I’m not a fan of that term) kind of result.

      If there are any surprises, it would more likely be that the low doesn’t capture as quickly and loops a little further offshore with a little less impact. It would less likely be that the low loops closer and therefore produces a greater impact.

  35. The HRRR may have backed off the peak gusts, but, if I am reading the 18z correctly, we will be having at least 40-knot gusts for about 24 consecutive hours!!! Yikes!

  36. I’m so over the use of the term “nor’easter” for every system that moves through here now. It’s lost its meaning. I think if we stopped slapping that label on nearly everything that turns counterclockwise and puts a blanket of clouds over us and used some terms related to the actual process going on in the atmosphere, simplified / explained for the general public, then the viewers / listeners of media would learn more!

    I understand, the news directors want the dramatic terms! The meteorologists have to use them. I’d go against it and promptly get fired, I’m sure. 😉

    1. The winds won’t be from the NE? I was arranging outdoor stuff based on that? Ugh. What direction should I plan for? Thank you, sir.

        1. Ok. Thanks. Then the things I’ve tried to hide behind decks and indents will hopefully be ok. Can’t do anything about the trampoline. It will go in a different direction 🙁

  37. 18z GFS evolution further east still, rain amounts down even more. Most of the WHW forecast area is under 1.50 inch on that run.

  38. Dramatic TV graphics usually don’t come to full fruition. Always have to keep eyes on everything just in case.

  41. Convection near Cape points southwestward looks impressive.

    Southern stream system east of Hatteras already looks impressive on satellite.

    1. don’t need the very warm ocean temperatures for tropical development despite what some people may say. NHC has it at 50% chance of development.. Needs that warm core though. Let Sak’s blood boil lol.

      1. Like giving it a name somehow makes it worse..

        Haha!!!

        This isn’t what meteorology is about and they need to know that.

        If it becomes warm core then it will be tropical. That’s how it’s defined.

        But they’ll find a way to slap a name on it I’m sure.

        I don’t know where along the line it became more important about what name it had versus the impacts of it.

    1. Awesome. I bet the kids loved it. Sutton’s pumpkin show is Friday to Sunday. I’m worried. The Main night is saturday with the headless horseman and a cemetery tour

    2. Is this a yearly event? We (parade committee) are planning this for the first time. Did you have a ton of pumpkins?

        1. Ahhhhh. I thought you meant town. My son takes his son to that every year. I know it is spectacular. Thanks

  47. There may be a lot of people surprised by how bad this is in eastern New England… the hi res models (most of them at least) are incredible. They show the main low looping back into the coast in a sling shot/Fujiwhara type effect with the trough/decaying primary low. SNE will probably not be the rain jackpot; the NJ/NYC areas look to be the big winners there. But what I don’t think people are understanding is how bad 6+ hours of 50-75mph wind gusts would be when you add a wet ground and leafed trees. If you take a consensus of the higher end, middle ground, and lower end model solutions, I’d conservatively estimate 200,000 customers will be without power over MA/RI by Wednesday morning. If the higher end outcomes verify, 1-3 million. I don’t say that lightly.

    Hope for that loop to be further east…

    1. Thank you so much. Is there a time frame. My son and son in law will be in Boston all day so wondering about traveling home

      1. The daytime tomorrow shouldn’t actually be too bad. There will be a good deal of rain around, but some breaks and lulls too, and not much wind. The worst of the wind will depend a little on where you are, but it’s basically all coming tomorrow night into early Wednesday morning, say 8PM-8AM.

Comments are closed.