Tuesday October 26 2021 Forecast (7:33AM)

163 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 26-30)

It’s time for the first of two storm systems to impact our region during this interlude of blocking. As a primary low over the northern Mid Atlantic weakens, a low pressure area that was off the Carolinas has started to move to the north northeast and will be captured by upper level low pressure, doing a cyclonic loop while reaching maximum intensity just south of New England tonight / early Wednesday before moving away and gradually weakening. The early part of this system is in the form of shower bands, some with heavy rain, that have been impacting the region since late last night and will continue to do so today before a more solid area of rainfall fills in across the region for several hours, before gradually tapering off Wednesday. The strongest winds are going to occur along the coastal areas, especially near the South Coast, during tonight, closest to the tightly wrapped up low as it makes its closest approach on the west-moving portion of its loop. We will see pockets of damage, especially with so many vulnerable trees due to a wet summer and very moist ground. As previously mentioned, leaves coming off trees will block storm drains leading to additional flooding, and leaves covering roadways also can make it hard to see lanes and lead to slippery conditions, not unlike snow and ice in winter. Use caution if you need to travel! We get a break Thursday and a good portion of Friday as high pressure in eastern Canada noses down into New England between two storm systems, the second of which will be a little weaker with more direct track to the west of the WHW forecast area. It will spread its first rainfall into our area Friday night, probably on the later side, and bring us an unsettled Saturday with additional rain and breezy weather, though not looking nearly as strong for wind as the first one…

TODAY: Overcast with rain and areas of fog. Highs 48-55. Wind NE 15-25 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas and higher elevations where gusts above 40 MPH are possible.

TONIGHT: Overcast with periods of rain and areas of fog. Lows 41-48. Wind NE 15-25 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas and higher elevations where gusts above 45 MPH are likely.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain and drizzle in the morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs 50-57. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 51-58. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain arriving late. Temperatures steady 52-59. Wind SE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain. Highs 56-63. Wind SE to variable 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 31 – NOVEMBER 4)

Low pressure should be north and east of the region by October 31 and while there is still the chance of rain showers an overall drying trend with a westerly wind is expected. High pressure brings fair and seasonably cool weather for the first day of November. A couple waves of low pressure may bring brief rain chances around November 2 and 4 though timing and details are not certain.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 5-9)

While I lean toward a drier pattern with variable temperatures, we may see another blocking situation evolve. Something to watch. Forecast is low confidence.

163 thoughts on “Tuesday October 26 2021 Forecast (7:33AM)”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    You have down played wind compared to NWS and TV mets. Curious to know your thinking. Many thanks

  5. Thanks TK.

    Special Thanks to WxW for additional storm info! It’s been most helpful.

    Looking forward to more of your thoughts later today! 🙂

  7. Thank you, TK.

    Is rain on Saturday a lock? I have outdoor activities planned. I’ll do them no matter what, but would prefer less rain.

  10. I found this wonderful photo, courtesy of Mark Rosenthal.
    Can you identify all six of these greats, some of whom
    are no longer with us?

    5 of them should be totally obvious and the 6th I remember well, but others may not.

    https://ibb.co/42mwbx1

      1. Yup, I believe so.

        Also, have to wonder what well above average ocean temps can add to this system in terms of additional available energy in the atmosphere.

    1. Awesome shot. It clearly shows the system beginning to explode.
      Imagine if there were an arctic high sitting to our North.
      I don’t mean snow for our area (although there would be some inland and up north), but rather an extreme contrast
      in air masses. I have to believe that would make the intensification even more powerful.

      1. And would make the pressure gradient even stronger.

        As it is, 1020 mb high is creating enough of a pressure gradient.

        Thank goodness we have the lowest tides of the month.

        1. Imagine astronomically high tides of near 12 feet instead
          of near 8 feet???? With 60 mph wind gusts along the coast
          for 24 hours. We would be looking at major coastal flooding for sure.

  17. Not really downplaying the wind JPD, just keeping it in the ballpark of reality. Gusts above 45 for the top areas.

    Sustained, not really except maybe for a while on the immediate South Coast or Block Island.

    Rain amounts: decent, not astronomical.

    1. Well, then let me ask you this? Do you expect wind gust over 50 for the Boston Area? NWS is saying 59 mph for Boston.

      When you say 45 and others say in the 50s, then it looks like
      down playing. Perhaps it is just semantics?? To me it gives the appearances of downplaying.

      You must have a reason for saying gusts above 45 as opposed to gusts to 55 or 60?

      🙂

        3. My house is solid as a rock, yet when the wind gets into the 50s, we can feel it shake. Frightening feeling.

      2. I don’t think so. Only a couple mb difference.

        Breezy to windy inland, high impact wind event in coastal communities.

        1. Thank you both. Was wishful thinking. Tom, I share your concern mentioned below for an area that is dear to my heart and for all who call it home.

  19. As I head off for my next set of classes, my thought is that I am concerned for what may happen on the south shore coastal towns tonight.

    So much rain this summer, every tree is fully foliated.

    I have multiple road closures, multiple days without power scenarios running through my mind.

  23. I know I’m just repeating what everyone knows but just in case it helps a bit

    Preparations I make which may be different from what others do

    Turn refrigerator and freezer temps down now
    Run dishwasher later today
    Do as much laundry as possible
    Secure everything outside
    Turn propane tank to my fire bowl off and disconnect
    Keep all devices connected all day
    Check batteries in lanterns and flashlights
    Make sure I have enough batteries to replace all
    Charge power bricks
    Fill gas cans for generator(s)

    I’d sure appreciate ideas from all others.

  24. Thanks TK.

    I think it’s locked and loaded at this point. The hope for a more eastern loop seems to be diminishing. Latest HRRR runs (and basically everything else) look even worse, if anything.

    For most of eastern Massachusetts (say from Worcester east) and Rhode Island, I’d expect peak gusts in the 50-60mph range, trending more towards 60-70 mph as you approach the coast. For the “windy” spots (Cape Cod, immediate coast including Logan, top of Blue Hill), they’ll probably peak out in the 70-80 mph range.

    Those would be the brief peaks, but again, we’re talking several/numerous hours of gusts in the range of 40-50+ mph. Several days of power outages are likely for some…

      1. Thanks Vicki, you too! I’m quite concerned for you guys up there.

        We were more worried about the rain down here. Most of northern New Jersey has seen a good 3-5″ with some more to come. There’s been some flooding issues and will be a couple more, but it definitely could’ve been worse.

  26. I hate powerful winds at night. You can’t really see anything unless maybe under a lone streetlight. I’m now getting more fearful of the wind than my basement filling with water.

    1. I totally agree. Nights storms can be frightening. I will put the floodlights on in the back in case there is a crack of a tree, but, of course, that will on work if the power stays on.

      Brought the Halloween decorations and flags in and tested the generator yesterday

  29. Maybe I am just hoping if I ask enough, the answer will change. With the models seemingly inching south and east, wouldn’t that translate to reduced wind or is the deal done? Any wind speed estimates for Natick? Am a bit worried since my daughter has class in Boston tonight and is driving home at 9. Thanks.

    1. Looking at the link about from the HRRR, winds in Natick should be in the 50-60 knot range or 57 to 69 mph. Since you are on
      the more Western edge of that range, probably close to the 50 knots. Even so, IF this is correct, Natick could have 55-60 mph gusts. Again, if the HRRR is correct.

      Here are some more:

      Here is the 12Z NAM wind gusts in MPH

      https://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/conussfc.php?run=2021102612&time=INSTANT&var=GUSTM&hour=015

      Natick is right at the edge of the 60 mph gusts.

      Even the GFS places you in or near the 60 mph gusts

      https://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/conussfc.php?run=2021102606&time=INSTANT&var=GUSTM&hour=024

    1. You couldn’t loop that storm more perpendicular into the south shore, if you tried.

      It really worries me that the loop southwestward or storm direction matched the direction of the wind.

      Not good for incoming low level jet or storm surge. Just literally directed into shore.

  34. We’re very lucky about the tides. Had this come in at a full/new moon, we’d be talking major to near record coastal flooding. There may still be some splashover and erosion issues, but it’ll be a huge bullet dodged in that regard.

    Don’t focus much on the run-to-run model changes now, especially from one hour to the next. Nothing much is going to change for the winds.

    It does seem like there’s a bit of a slower trend with the storm’s exit. Wind gusts of around 40 mph (stronger coast/Cape) could linger through much of the day tomorrow, which may slow power restoration efforts.

  35. I was just out with the recycling and I can see that the wind
    is just starting to pick up a little bit. Can feel it and can see the
    trees gently swaying in the breeze. At Logan as of 12:54 PM wind is steady at 21 mph. Report not showing gusts as of yet. It will be a slow ramp upwards.

    1. down to 29.29 inches in about 15 minutes, or almost 1 mb = 992 mb. Pressure says falling rapidly.

      I think the storm center is some distance away from this buoy.

      1. 29.26 now

        Conditions at 44008 as of
        (2:20 pm EDT)
        1820 GMT on 10/26/2021:
        Unit of Measure:
        English
        Time Zone:
        Station Local Time

        Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.

        5-day plot – Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): NE ( 40 deg true )
        5-day plot – Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 21.4 kts
        5-day plot – Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 27.2 kts
        5-day plot – Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.26 in
        5-day plot – Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 62.4 °F
        5-day plot – Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 62.6 °F
        5-day plot – Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 60.3 °F
        5-day plot – Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 23.3 kts
        5-day plot – Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 25.3 kts

  37. If you’re familiar with aviation forecasting, you’ll know how wild the 18z Boston Logan TAF is.

    https://aviationweather.gov/taf/data?ids=KBOS&format=raw&metars=off&layout=on

    To translate – NWS Boston is forecasting 14 hours (02z tonight through 16z tomorrow) of prevailing wind gusts of 55 kt (65 mph) at the airport. For what it’s worth, I think that’s too extreme and that the duration of those level of winds will be shorter. But either way, it is going to rip.

  40. It’s amazing to me how animals know what’s coming without the benefit of modern forecasting. I’ve never seen so many massive flocks of birds both on the ground and in flight at high altitudes. Also the squirrels have been really hustling today, more so then usual for this time of year.

    2. Nature is amazing. Horses are especially sensitive to the pressure drops. They tend to get quite antsy if domestic. I always felt it was because, flight being their only defense, that running to a safe area was instinct.

      There was a hallmark movie not long ago…..yes, know hallmark 🙂 🙂 🙂 A native schooled a budding meteorologist on what to look for in nature. I suspect we could all learn a lot

  41. The pressure keeps coming up with each successive run of the HRRR. Not sure I get this at all.

    What was earlier a 975mb system is now being portrayed as an 983 mb system. that is an 8mb difference. That is meaningful, but what does it mean. It looks to me as if wind
    projections are backing off just a bit. That would be a good thing. Let’s see what actually happens.

    https://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2021102618/008/sfcwind_mslp.us_ne.png

    Raining lightly here and beginning to be able to hear the wind outside.

  42. JPD, thanks for sending the GFS loop. Very interesting indeed. TK mentioned a loop a couple of days ago.

    As I recall, the February 1978 storm did a loop, too, perhaps similar to this one though tighter and not as elongated. Am I wrong to think this?

  43. Wind is really picking up here. Trees are swaying pretty well already and the wind isn’t that strong. Perhaps gusting to 25-30 mph. Still quite noticeable. Logan was gusting to 30 at 3PM. Almost 4 now.

  44. Can we take heart in the storm’s favorable movements south and East and it’s rising pressure? I am a weather neophyte but it seems the trend is our friend.

    1. I sure hope so. Daughter was at Humarock about 10 days ago and was amazed by some of the erosion. Our New England coastline is in serious danger

  46. Barely a breeze here. The flag across the street is barely moving. To be fair, it is water logged. But the leaves in the trees in the front yard are just rustling a touch

  47. I am out in duxbury at a field hockey game. Yes, they are playing.

    Anyhow, the wind just off the deck is already cranking, the low clouds are absolutely flying by.

    2. Agree I was just in Duxbury/ Kingston. Most of the outside stuff down . Tom how concerned are you with damage down this way . Does pembroke get spared & more Plymouth/ south the big hit ???

      1. Yes, I´m concerned. I think 5-7 miles inland, take some off the wind, but frequent gusts to 40, 50 and maybe 55 for hours on end.

        Within a mile or two of the coast, frequent gusts to 50, 55, up to 65 for hours on end.

        So, I don´t think tomorrow morning is going to be too good when first light arrives.

  50. Ch. 4 had a graphic calling for another 2 inches of rain in metro west (adding to about an inch last night) and winds ranging from 30-50 top end. I may be guilty of gilding the lily a bit but that is not far off. Happy with that after day’s speculation. Now we will see how it plays out.

  52. It’s already gusting pretty good coast and Cape, but watch for a big ramp up from about 8-10pm. That’s when areas more than right at the coast will really start to feel it.

    1. Thanks, WxW. 1.95 rain overall with 1.32 since midnight. Winds gusting into the low 20s and still an hour to go to post time

  53. Thus far, in Boston, the rain and wind have NOT been impressive. I realize it’s early and the heavier rain and wind are still to come.

    1. Had a few gusts over 30 MPH here in the NW ‘burbs so far.

      I’m going to guess absolute top wind gusts for a few selected locations…

      Boston (Logan): 62 MPH.
      Plymouth MA: 63 MPH.
      Blue Hill: 71 MPH.
      Chatham: 77 MPH.
      Block Island: 68 MPH.

        1. I-95 belt gusts above 45 MPH at peak. I-495 belt westward gusts above 35 MPH. These areas will see lower sustained winds too as would be expected – more run-of-the-mill kind of thing.

  57. As WxWatcher alluded to, gusts are frequent, so even 40-50 will do damage over a prolonged period of time with partial to full foliage and a soggy landscape.

    1. Indeed. And with Sutton’s history of downed trees, that does not bode well. To be fair, nat grid cleared along roads through a good portion of the town this past summer

        1. I’m not working it . I’m off until Friday due to an unforeseen medical procedure, all is good .

  58. Until now, wind has been fairly tame. But, what’s more surprising is the lack of any heavy rain thus far. It rained much heavier in the wee hours of the morning. Even that was not sustained over a long period.

    We had multiple events in July with much heavier rainfall for longer periods of time. In fact, we had a few days in July that were total wash-outs. Yesterday and today were not wash-outs.

    1. Its an deep storm pressure wise, but, its a colder storm if you will than all the warm core storms this summer.

      Those tropical systems with the mid 70 dewpoints can hold an almost unthinkable amount of atmospheric moisture.

      Not to say that it cant precip heavily in a cold core, cooler storm, but, the atmosphere just cant hold the moisture that the summer events could.

      So, its more the steady rain or thick, thick mist/drizzle that slowly will build up over time, but not those insane deluges this summer.

    2. I never thought the rain would be out of control with this.

      It never looked like it to me at all. Decent rain, but not astronomical totals. We don’t have the moisture feed and there is a LOT of dry air being pulled into this circulation.

      1. I had the sense that was the consensus. Enough rain to saturate the ground but not enough for sink holes….if you will. 😉

    1. Guess I need to look out the window before I say it is quiet.

      Not to quiet after all. Gusts into lower 30s. Definitely not close to what east of here is seeing

  65. Winds haven’t made too much of a push inland yet. That should start changing pretty soon, though the peak probably won’t be til around the 2-6AM window.

    Closing in on 30,000 outages in Massachusetts alone. That will surely hit 6 figures… hopefully we hold it short of 7 but that’s not a given.

  67. Boston tide guage measuring 3.4 ft storm surge

    20 years in Marshfield, this one (wind) is up there with the Jan 3/4 storm from 3-4 years ago and Nemo from 2014 ??

    Gust after gust after gust regularly in that 40 – 50 mph zone and that occasional one that stands out stronger.

  68. Some observations:
    5:30 pm fierce winds on Marblehead Neck
    7:00 pm power failure at Whole Foods Beverly, interestingly the registers could still cash us out
    2:40 am power out here in Marblehead and the wind is wild

    Also interesting, the Mass.gov power outage map shows no reported outages in Marblehead, but there truly are, and our municipal light department is aware, They did say restoration in about an hour.

    Wild night!

      1. That’s good!

        I wonder what RedRock (the park, not the cafe) looks like about now. My friends were there earlier literally soaking up the view, getting drenched taking videos and all.

  69. No power, I think most of town is out.

    Now, the wind is the strongest under these heavy rain bands. Easy gusts to 50mph, could be greatly underestimating.

  70. This heavy rain band is bringing all the wind down ! Crazy last 45 minutes. Easily gusting to 60, we’ll have to see what our airport got to.

        1. I don’t see many reports of outages in this area. The map along the coast looks just awful. Im afraid of what daylight will show. You are all in my prayers.

  71. This heavy rain band has got to move out soon.

    It’s undoubtedly bringing a great amount of wind to the surface.

    Overnight was plenty enough, but the last hour and the next hour or 2 are going to take the tree damage to another level.

  72. No school in Middleborough.
    The winds are as strong and as loud as I have ever heard them in the 32 years I’ve lived here.

  74. I recently moved to 1 Franklin (Millenium tower) in Boston. In 3 months I had not heard a sound from anywhere (the building seems very very solidly built and very well soundproofed) but right now it’s creaking like the devil in this wind which is definitely keeping me on edge! I am not a huge fan of living in a high rise (I’m here for the indoor pool) but most definitely today I don’t love having more than 20 floors above me – yow!!

    Stay safe everyone!

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