Friday October 29 2021 Forecast (7:37AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 29 – NOVEMBER 2)

The full clearing of the sky in most of the region late yesterday into the early morning hours today allowed for the temperature to fall to as much as 5 to 10 degrees lower than my forecast low temperatures for this morning. This allowed for some frost to form in some areas that had not seen it yet. Normal cold spots outside of the urban areas even saw low temperatures go to near or slightly below freezing. A deck of stratus clouds has already moved back into east coastal MA and also stretches across southern RI at sunrise, and these areas are likely to see very limited if any sun today, keeping it rather chilly given the colder overnight low temperatures. Further inland there will be some sunshine to start, but some of the lower cloudiness from the east as well as an eventual increase in high to mid level cloudiness associated with approaching low pressure from the southwest will put an end to the sunshine there as we go through the day. The aforementioned low pressure area is the second of the two to impact the region this week. This was once the West Coast “bomb cyclone” you may have heard of on the news while we were dealing with our own powerful storm a few days ago. This system has already maxed out in intensity, and while it is a larger system in terms of areal coverage, it is a weaker system than the one we experienced earlier this week. The main low pressure area from this will move into the northern Appalachians and then redevelop south of New England, but instead of becoming intense and doing a loop like the last one, it will just move northward and across the region later Saturday before pulling off to the north of the region by Sunday. Rainfall will come in 2 main surges, one during the pre-dawn hours of Saturday, and another that will wash out most of Saturday midday through evening, when pockets of heavy rain and even some embedded thunder may occur. Winds will not be too serious with this system, but gusts up to 40 MPH may occur mainly in RI and eastern MA coastal areas for several hours during its passage. This will slow down cleanup and recovery efforts from the previous storm, and may result in some additional damage to compromised trees. In addition, we’ll see some slippery leaf-covered roads and leaf-clogged storm drains, so a travel hazard will be present from this as well. The good news: A drying westerly air flow arrives in time for Sunday along with relatively mild air for the end of October. There is only the slightest chance of a passing rain shower during the day but expect a mainly dry day and a dry evening with temperatures falling into the 50s for trick-or-treat. We’ll be in a westerly to northwesterly air flow early next week with a slight cooling trend. Dry weather will be in control most of the time, but the rain shower chance goes up later Tuesday with the approach of a cold front.

TODAY: Coastal clouds. Inland sun followed by clouds. Highs 48-55, coolest eastern coastal areas. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening. Cloudy with rain arriving overnight. Temperatures steady 48-55. Wind SE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts near the South Coast.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely, especially midday-afternoon including the chance of thunder. Areas of fog. Highs 56-63. Wind E 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially in coastal areas where gusts up to 40 MPH are possible.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely, especially in the evening. Areas of fog. Lows 48-55. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of a brief passing rain shower. Highs 61-68. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Evening temps (trick-or-treat time) falling into 50s. Lows 43-50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 54-61. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 38-45. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Rain showers possible late-day or at night. Highs 52-59. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 3-7)

A lingering rain shower possible early November 3 as a cold front pulls offshore. A wave of low pressure may bring a period of rain November 4. Temperatures near to below normal midweek. Mostly dry weather and below normal temperatures later next week but an upper level low pressure area may produce a rain and/or snow shower by the November 6-7 weekend. A killing freeze is also possible by the end of next week.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 8-12)

Fair and cool weather to start this period, then a rainfall threat by mid period marking a switch to milder weather by the end of the period. Details of this evolution are uncertain at this time.

66 thoughts on “Friday October 29 2021 Forecast (7:37AM)”

  2. Thank you TK!
    We dipped below freezing here for the first time this fall with a low temp of 30. Hopefully this will be an end to the mosquitoes.

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Hope all improves quickly on the South Shore. What a mess.

    Lowest temp of the season this morning at 39.

  5. Now into my 3rd day without power, heat, or internet. Meanwhile, out my front window, I can see that the street immediately to my north had their power restored 36 hours ago. Ditto for the street to the east that my street ends at. This storm was well-forecast, so why is it taking so long to restore power? Oh wait, I know – it didn’t have a name. If this were a tropical system, the utilities would have had crews from hundreds of miles away already here and waiting for the storm to end so that they could get started. This storm was a lot worse (and stronger) than half of the rotating thunderstorms that NHC named this summer, including Henri.

    1. I posted a map last night showing progress, and there is significant progress being made in just one day. Remember, this was a two-ish day storm. Work cannot be safely done as long as wind is present. I’ve heard multiple comments from folks, especially on the south shore, that this was the worst damage they remember. But to your point, knowing a significant storm is approaching, preparing for your home to go multiple days without power is always the best plan.

      1. The utilities failed again. That significant progress could have been accelerated if they prepared ahead of it. Before every tropical nears the coast you always hear stories of utility crews driving in from hundreds of miles away to prepare to work the moment the storm winds down. Where were those crews this time? Every forecast called for hurricane-force winds, especially south of Boston, so it wasn’t a surprise. Did the utilities bring in extra crews to prepare? Nope. Most of the damage occurred between 10pm Tuesday and 8am Wednesday. Winds had diminished to under 30 mph by 4pm Wednesday. There is no reason that for many of the towns on the south shore to still be more than 75% dark more than 36 hours after that.

        As of 9:15am, the following towns reported more than half of homes/businesses to still be dark:

        Plympton 97%
        Cohasset 79%
        Pembroke 79%
        Carver 76%
        Lakeville 75%
        Hanson 74%
        Duxbury 67%
        Hingham 67%
        Norwell 66%
        Marshfield 61%
        Rochester 61%
        Halifax 54%
        Marion 52%
        Barnstable 51%
        Scituate 51%
        Wareham 51%

        This is unacceptable.

        1. Don’t get me going about utility companies.

          They will ALWAYS place profits ahead of people. Every stinken time!

            1. Nope, it is Eversource, who I detest.

              However, much work has been done in our area
              over the past couple of years.
              When storms come, we luckily fare pretty well.

              I cannot even remember the last time we lost power due to a storm. There have been outages, but not due to storm damage. I can’t recall a single instance in the 51 years I have lived in JP.

              Not even the Blizzard of 78. Not Gloria, Not Bob.

              1. Thanks. I was absolutely amazed when you said that yesterday. I think if we look to where we started trickling up…again not to be political but to be truthful…..we can also see where outages lasted longer. Over four decades, I spent a lot of time updating testing schedules as did Mac on the end where he worked. The change in maintenance and staffing in the 80s was blatant. But bigger and more damaging storms fits in also.

        2. It is a good idea to try to understand a problem ….just as we hope folks do when faulting meteorologists.

          As well as you understand weather, I understand the utilities. Mac and I worked for a company that built and provided test sets for 98% of the utilities in North America. The company also trained those companies in the use of the equipment throughout the year as well as writing IEEE and ASTM standards.

          I can guarantee you that whether a storm is named has absolutely nothing to do with decisions. I can agree that the utilities are not staffed as they were. The overriding reason, my friend, is the bottom line. Without getting too political, the tactic of trickling money up and thinking it will trickle back down is a joke. Utilities sit on huge profits while cutting work force and test schedules. Since the company we worked for keeps in-depth track of schedules, I know that what was performed multiple times a year might now be performed every couple of years. That has been the norm for years. Old equipment performs very well ….if maintained regularly. Service is provided if staff is at full numbers.

          So did they fail? They have not only for this storm but for every other one. Your complaints mirror the storms where utilities were brought in from other states. As a consumer, posting here won’t help. Also faulting only during a storm won’t help. There are always many complaints, but then folks just move on until the next time. My best advice is make your voices heard where they will do some good.

          I’ll repeat, however, it has been one day and these folks are working night and day. If the towns you listed are half in the dark, that also translates to half having service restored. You know firsthand that it is a mess since you said Brockton is a war zone. We have had utilities here from all over and it has taken three to five days. It’s been one full day so far.

          Also, in addition to utilities not bringing in help from other area, for some reason, the seriousness of this didn’t seem to translate to the public. JPD (or someone) mentioned that that two days ago. I don’t know why as our Mets did a great job.

          I agree utilities are not sending the numbers they can. I surely don’t agree it has anything to do with naming storms. Either way….as we know utilities have slowed down and also storms are getting worse…preparing for multiple days is our responsibility as well.

          1. Whether a storm is named absolutely makes a HUGE difference in preparation for the utility companies. The company that TK and I used to work for provided forecasts to dozens of utilities across the nation, but especially up and down the East Coast. We would get 3-5 times more phone calls from those utilities before a named tropical system that before any fall/winter nor’easter. In addition to more calls, they’d ask a lot more questions and want more detail.

            As for the “it’s been one day”, actually, it’s nearly two days at this point. Crews aren’t supposed to be up in the buckets when winds are above 35 mph (as has been reported numerous times). Except for the immediate coast, most of SE Mass was below that threshold before 4pm Wednesday. That was 42 hours ago.

            1. Well since I worked with and have many friends who still work with the vast majority of utilities not only throughout North American but now worldwide, I’ll strongly disagree. But if that were true, it begs the question, if that is true, why is there criticism here of naming storms?

              I did put in a call to several old coworkers re naming……I stand by my comment……as does every individual I spoke with

              1. Why is there criticism of naming storms? Are you serious? NHC has spent the past several years naming storms that A) aren’t tropical, B) don’t meet the criteria for being named by any objective analysis and C) consistently overestimate the strength of said storms. You literally cannot use historical comparisons any more because they are making mockery of the database now.

                3. Please reread your comments. You argue that utilities know to pay closer attention to named storms. However, knowing strong storms are becoming more frequent, you don’t want to name the storms in an effort to assist the utilities who have no meteorological training.

                  Now I’m really done.

                4. No, I said that they seem to pay closer attention to named storms. What they should be doing is paying attention to the forecasts they get, whether it has a name or not. That’s why these utility companies pay private forecasting services.

                  NHC has already made a mockery of the named storm database already by naming nearly every rotating thunderstorm over water. If we’re going to just name every storm whether tropical or not, then nobody will pay attention to those either. The solution is not to name more storms, it’s to find a way to get the message across about how serious a storm is. The meteorologists all did a terrific job with this past storm, the problem is, the people who needed to hear that message the most underestimated it.

                5. “ Whether a storm is named absolutely makes a HUGE difference in preparation for the utility companies.”

                6. Yes, and that’s a problem THEY need to fix. The solution is not to water everything down. Just because they don’t seem to understand that a storm without a name can be worse than one with a name is not the fault of the Meteorological community.

  7. Thank you, TK. Is there a chance of minimal or no rain between late afternoon and maybe 8:00ish tomorrow night? I know that is a difficult question to answer. Lots of Halloween pumpkin and other events, including in Sutton

  8. JPD, that is impressive your neighborhood has never lost power in 50+ years due to storms. I lost power the day after the Blizzard of 1978 when it was bright and sunny for a number of hours into the early evening. With Gloria for 12 hours almost to the minute. As for Bob, the lights did flicker for a brief time iirc, but otherwise kept my power.

    1. Perhaps there was one that I am forgetting. Come to think of it now that you have jogged my mind, there may have been one
      time in the Winter back in the mid 70s, a few years before the Blizzard where we lost power. I do not recall for how long?
      I think it was about a half day or so. It may or may not have been due to a storm. Honestly, that I cannot remember. I know it was cold and there was snow on the ground, whether snow was falling or not or even if it was windy or not, I cannot remember.

      Funny how I didn’t remember that until your post.

      Sorry, I wasn’t trying to tell a falsehood, I simply did not remember. Thanks

        1. Actually, they weren’t. Using data for Lowell, 1972-73 and 1973-74 were well below normal. 1974-75 was almost exactly normal, while 1975-76 was barely above normal. 1978-79 was the 8th lowest snowfall total in 93 years of data, and 1979-80 was the 3rd lowest.

          Using 1970-71 to 1979-80 as the decade, the 70s were less snowy than the 2010s (64.6″ per season), 2000s (63.8″), and 1960s (61.4″) . The average of 57.5″ per year for the decade, beats the 1940s (55.1″) the 1990s (54.4″), 1930s (53.4″), and 1950s (52.2″), and 1980s (45.6″). The 93-year average is 55.5″ per season.

    1. We do 🙂

      Center, 139 and our neighborhood next to police station are restored.

      60% or so, last I checked, with no power.

  13. I was just informed that power has been restored at the StormHQ World Headquarters Compound after an outage of jsut over 56 hours.

  14. For anyone looking for gas in the Marshfield area, Scituate gas at the harbor is open. I suspect you all know this, but just in case?

  15. The 2011 October noreaster created the largest power outage in CT history. I left my mom and stepdad that Saturday afternoon with the snow falling and I could not get up a hill on my way home. I ended up backing down the hill and leaving my car in staples parking lot. My mom and stepdad came to get me to bring me back to their place. The power went out at eleven pm.

    1. Yikes. Glad your mom and stepdad were able to get you. I can’t recall what time the power went out at our home. I plan to reread the whw blog from that day later. I believe we didn’t have power for Halloween either or maybe it came on right around trick or treat time. I do recall my then four year old grandson going around and turning lights off when power returned.

    2. Hahah. I just saw that you posted as I was typing above. I was thinking you’d remind us of this day in history. I do enjoy your reminders.

  16. Been a long time since I posted here but wanted to clarify something. There are indeed crews here from out of state helping to restore power. I spoke to a crew from Texas as well as a crew from upstate New York. I have been without power since about 3 am on Wednesday with little hope of seeing it come back any time soon. Is it frustrating….of course it is. But I have witnessed plenty of utility workers doing their best to get us back online. And I am thankful for the kindness of friends and family that is showed in these trying times.

    Now back to your regular scheduled program. Hope all are well.

    1. Sue I cannot tell you how happy it made me to see your name when I just opened the blog. I very much miss seeing your posts

  17. It would be nice if this nation invested in an extended underground electrical network, not necessarily for every square mile, but for a greater area well away from metropolitan locations. I suppose it would cost billions, maybe trillions of dollars. Of course, at least “one” of our two parties (we all know which one) would never go for it.

    1. 100% agree!!!

      Frankly, I’d rather see money spent on this than a lot of things I’ve seen in the budget reconciliation bill.

      I recall telling high school classmates in the Netherlands about power outages back home. They looked surprised. Baffled, really. Power hardly ever goes out in the Netherlands, or any part of Western Europe. There are no (ugly) above ground power lines of any kind, anywhere. The return on investment is massive.

    3. We had lots of discussion on that at Doble. It has just about as many pros as it does cons. That said, we seem to have enough trouble approving a much needed infrastructure program.

  18. Good to hear from you, Sue!

    Thinking about you, Dr. S…

    If I had a chainsaw and knew how to use it, I’d be right over to help.

    Do you have family or friends who have a chainsaw, maybe who live north and west of the South Shore who could help out?

    1. Thanks Captain, that is very kind of you! My husband and I had to work all week so we have a lot of cleaning up and sawing to this weekend. We do have some very helpful friends and family so hopefully we can make quick work of it (between football practices and games) 🙂 Hope you and your family are well.

  19. I never realized that switching mobile carriers was such a pain.
    Just completed the process today. Had to sign up and pay 1st month’s service and 2 sims cards (one for each of our lines),
    then receive 2 sims cards in the mail. I installed the sim cards
    (with my trusted sim card tool, namely a paper clip) 🙂 only to find out that I had to unlock the network which required a special code from the previous carrier. Once that was accomplished, then had to call a special number with the new carrier to “port” our existing numbers from the old carrier to the new one. Phew! That is now all done and both our phones are with the new carrier. What a process!

  20. I use to complain about power going out up in New England with the big big storms. I feel like now as I have lived on St. Thomas USVI I would not be as angry with the few times a year of power loss. I average around 4 to 6 times a month sometimes for a full day or two and thats without a storm. The states have it good compared to any of the US Territories. IF a storm of that nature hit the USVI we would be without power for at least 3 days.

  21. Yes. I’ve seen the 1 to 2 foot snowstorm for eastern MA on the 12z GFS for Veterans Day. Lock it in! 😉

    I’m sure there are some social media sites having fun with that one. It’ll be gone on the 18z run.

    In the actual world of meteorology, a brief commentary on the recent storm. I’ve had 2 private messages (from people on a page I admin) asking why the storm wasn’t named, because it was so bad. This supports a point I have made in the past about too many named storms leading to issues with perception. This tends to create a thought process that a storm without a name can’t possibly be as bad, or even more so, for a particular area, than one with a name. We here all know this is definitely not the case, but there is a significant segment of the population, including some with power in decision for recovery activity, that are not fully understanding of this. It’s an issue that can be addressed from more than one angle. The forecast for that storm was excellent by pretty much all sources (local media if you filter out some of the headlines which we just come to expect) and the NWS. The message was not well-heeded. Continued good thoughts for those still impacted by that system.

    Onward…

    This upcoming system will have only a chance to produce a moderate wind event (40-45 MPH top gusts) in advance of the low center, which will likely come right up across eastern MA. That will save the region from a bigger wind event. However, any gusty wind right now is not good news since it hampers power restoration efforts and increases the risk of further tree damage in trees that were already compromised but did not break or come down in the previous storm. Hopefully it’s not too bad.

    Onward further…

    All jokes about the GFS snow forecast aside, having our first snowflakes in parts of SNE before we reach the 8th of November is definitely possible. The pattern could very well support it. We’re heading for near to below normal temperatures and near to above normal precipitation (though not overly wet as I see it after this next system).

    The Middle Mississippi Valley to the Southeast may see some record early season cold in the 8-14 day period. As I said yesterday, hello La Nina.

    I’ll be mostly away from the blog this evening (probably until tomorrow morning’s update). I am going to do a photo shoot at a high school football game in Belmont to start with, and then catching up on a few things I need out of my way for the weekend. I’ve been operating with approximately half the use of my dominant hand for about 2 weeks due to a long-lasting bout of tendonitis. This may or may not be related to my autoimmune disease, as it is the 3rd spot to be impacted this year, both feet, and now one hand, very cyclical, like what used to happen with my knees and ankles in the early days of the disease. It could also just be from overworking them. Either way, it feels like it’s finally starting to subside. Let’s hope!

    Have a Fab Friday night!

        1. These crews sure deserve a round of applause. I saw several comments on the Humarock FB page suggesting folks get the crews coffee and donuts. I know many are doing this. A friend who lives on the cape had crews from a couple of different states in her neighborhood.

  24. I’m heading to sleep but started reading the whw archive from October 2011. I started with the 27th. Fascinating. Also seems it was when arod joined the blog. Maybe JMA too but not sure if that was the first

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