Tuesday November 2 2021 Forecast (7:42AM)

43 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 2-6)

For several days we’ve been eyeing November 2 & 4 for potential disturbances. We’ll have them, and neither one will be all that significant, bringing more in the way of cloudiness than anything. The first is the combination of an approaching cold front from the west and a disturbance from the southwest which will bring varying amounts of cloudiness and perhaps a rain shower until sometime this evening before it introduces the coolest air of the season so far for the middle and latter portion of the week. A second disturbance, a wave of low pressure passing south of the region, will bring cloudiness and maybe a glancing blow of light rain favoring southeastern areas (Cape Cod, South Coast) later Thursday, but right now odds favor that rain staying offshore. We’ll also be eyeing a third system, another low pressure area to the south of New England, by the start of the weekend that is expected to stay far enough south not to impact the region with any more than just some high clouds, although some lower ocean cloudiness may visit at least Cape Cod.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. A few rain showers possible. Highs 52-59. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 33-40. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 47-54. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Brief late-day rain may occur Cape Cod / Islands. Highs 46-53. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 45-52. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 28-35. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and high clouds except lower clouds possible Cape Cod with less sun there. Highs 48-55. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, possibly stronger Cape Cod.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 7-11)

Offshore storm moving away November 7-8 with dry, breezy, cool weather. Next low pressure system should be passing north of the region November 9-10 with milder temperatures but increasing wind especially November 10, but moisture with that system should pass mostly to the north of the region. Based on current timing Veterans Day looks dry with high pressure in control.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 12-16)

Milder weather expected but a couple bouts of unsettled weather are also possible as we get into a more southwesterly flow with increased moisture available.

43 thoughts on “Tuesday November 2 2021 Forecast (7:42AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Down to 40 overnight. Not even the coolest yet. We shall see what the rest of the week brings.

  3. Thanks TK.

    According to Matt Noyes, November is expected to be above normal temp wise and near normal precipitation wise.

    He also noted that the ‘new’ average snowfall at Logan is 0.7 inch, down from the previous 1.3 inches. 🙁

    1. not surprised.
      I just don’t like what I am seeing prior to Winter. We shall see. We’ll have to make our snow predictions soon. Currently I am leaning low, but I could change my thinking.

  6. Thanks TK
    I have not had to scrape off frost on the windows of my car so far and I have a feeling that will be changing this week.

  7. For those looking for a good laugh on this Tuesday.
    Tweet from Meteorologist Henry Margusity

    It’s going to be a long winter with the crazy models. La Nina weakened recently which drives the storms into the southern branch

  8. Thank you, TK.

    Don’t like what I’m seeing this month, either. This said, November 2014, as I recall, was fairly mild. December, too. We know what happened from late January through mid March.

    To me, a more classic winter was 95/96. As I recall, we had some very cold, windy days in November. We immediately fell into a wintry pattern in early December. Lasted several months. Even had snowstorms in early April. That remains my favorite winter of all time. Long-lasting, quite a bit of cold and snow. Many events, as in >10.

    1. I know November 2015 was. Tom had posted he wished it would cool down. I commented that I uncharacteristically didn’t mind because we had been able to take a chair outside for Mac to sit in. In special Tom fashion, he then posted that he would wish for warmer weather to continue.

  10. 95-96 was the snowiest winter on record prior to 2014-2015. 2014-2015 winter was a slow start but from last week of January to early March it felt non stop with the snow.

      1. 1995-96 = 107.6”
        2014-15 = 110.6”

        I bet a kid born today will never see these amounts in their lifetime. Even half these amounts may very well be a challenge in future winters.

        “The planet has a fever!”
        -Al Gore

        2. not really out of the question I actually would bet that we see a winter break those numbers in the next 10 years.

          1. PS this is something I am trying to have the public and scientists alike to understand. Overall climate of the earth is warming and drying but its more about the amount of extremes which will be the bigger issue with climate change. We are in the Holocene Epoch. We have messed with the balance that has been in association with this Epoch and the earth will try to fix it, we just won’t like the outcome. We saw with the pandemic what the earth can do when we reduce our activities. Also another thing is that we are going into the 6th mass extinction event difference is its not due to natural changes, humans are acting as the asteroid and volcano’s.

        3. I completely disagree. Those #’s could very well be broken in the future.

          You’re taking 2 spikes (that just happen to be over 100 inches (don’t forget another winter that was just under 100 inches) and making them the absolute maximum possible snowfall for a period of record that is not even that long? (the 1870s to now are but a BLIP of time in the grand scheme). This is not how science works.

    2. Jury’s out, even on that. 😉

      Nobody saw those amounts coming even though we knew that there was some decent potential both winters.

  15. NO major tropical cyclones in the ENTIRE northern hemisphere for the ENTIRE month of October. Only happened one other time since 1950 (1977).

    1. Depending on sky & wind conditions, I see any morning Friday through Monday having some potential.

  18. Ben Noll has issued his Winter Forecast:

    https://www.bennollsays.com/p/winter-outlook-2122?r=6mogw&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&utm_source=

    Despite the fact that this is written more for the Hudson Valley, this is still a good read and largely applicable to SNE as well. Overall themes:

    1. La Nina – gradually weakening as the winter goes on

    2. Sudden Stratospheric Warming – models have been consistent that this will happen since July. Means a weaker PV and better chance of cold shots coming south

    3. Analog years – 8 out the 10 of them had near to above normal snow. 95-96 was one of them but a high outlier.

    4. Models – similar to last year predicting a largely above normal temp winter in much of the US but the positive anomaly is much less. Also looks near to above normal for precip.

    5. He mentions other wildcards like ocean temp anomalies, solar cycles, and MJO but doesn’t get into them.

    Overall he is predicting above normal snow….40-60″ for the Hudson Valley and as a point of reference, their average snow is 40″.

    2. So the takeaway there is … Cold shots, not sustained cold, and NEAR to above normal snowfall if the forecast range includes the normal. 🙂

      1. I take his range as meaning a 1 in 20 shot of near normal snow and a 19 out of 20 shot of above normal snow but OK. 🙂

    1. Very different look to it on the 18z run. It pulls too much from the tropics IMO. Probably more northern stream dominated system in that time frame. But it’s far away so we’ll see…

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