Wednesday November 3 2021 Forecast (7:33AM)

47 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 3-7)

A cooling trend is underway and continues the next couple days before bottoming-out, then we recover slightly but stay seasonably cool for the coming weekend. Our only “weather worries” remain two areas of low pressure, the first a weak wave of low pressure that will pass southeast of the region Thursday through early Friday with some cloudiness, and perhaps brief light rainfall near the South Coast especially Cape Cod / Islands. The second will be a larger and intensifying storm system off the Mid Atlantic Coast which will be tracking northeastward. It’s one of those systems that looks threatening on model guidance but odds favor having minimal impact, just a shield of cloudiness from it, maybe some additional lower clouds from the ocean due to a northeasterly air flow, and perhaps some rainfall getting up as far as the South Coast region by late Sunday. With this being day 5 right now, there is room for change in either direction, but I continue to lean toward the mostly miss scenario for our region.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 47-54. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 28-35. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 46-53. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Brief evening rain possible Cape Cod / Islands. Lows 32-39. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 46-53. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 28-35. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Late-day rain possible Cape Cod / Islands. Highs 49-56. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 8-12)

Offshore storm moving away November 8 with dry, breezy, cool weather. Next low pressure system should be passing north of the region November 9-10 with milder temperatures but increasing wind especially November 10, but moisture with that system should pass mostly to the north of the region. Based on current timing Veterans Day looks dry with high pressure in control. Next low pressure system approaches at the end of the period with clouds likely returning however milder air should be also arriving at that time.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 13-17)

A mild start and cooler finish is the leaning for this 5-day period, but some unsettled weather is going to be likely during that transition. The details of this cannot be determined this far in advance.

47 thoughts on “Wednesday November 3 2021 Forecast (7:33AM)”

          1. Absolutely. I have to say I have been out a fair amount at nightly lately and have thankfully noticed very few if any mosquitoes. Hopefully, last night is a final blow

  10. I am still counting on Logan getting to 32 before this week ends. If it doesn’t, it will probably have to wait until December as November is expected to average above normal temperatures. Not to mention it’s expected to warm back up next week.

    1. I’d wager that Logan does NOT see 32 this week. We shall see.

      I think there is an underground hot spring under their sensor.

    2. Logan will be below 32 more than once this month. Mark my words

      It’s also not set in stone that Nov will be warmer than normal there, and even if it is, that would not prevent subfreezing temps. Doesn’t work that way. 🙂

        1. Maybe. They have a shot I think Saturday morning. I don’t know if there will be enough clearing in time for them to get it Friday morning…

  11. Made it down to 34 here at the StormHQ World Headquarters Compound.

    As for Boston, they have only made it through November without getting down to 32 twice in 149 years of records – 12/2/1975 and 12/6/2009. Both winters had near to slightly below normal temperatures. 1975-76 had slightly above normal snowfall, 2009-10 was slightly below normal.

    BTW, just because the month averages above normal does not mean you can’t have some cold days in there. February, 2016 averaged 2.9 degrees above normal in Boston. The low on February 14 was -9 at Logan.

    1. I will never forget that Feb 14.
      I spent about 3 hours cruising around the coastal areas in the morning marveling at the Arctic sea smoke.

      Before that I also did one of those “toss the boiling water into the air and make a cloud”. 😀

      The low temp at WH that morning: -12F.

  12. The 130th Thanksgiving football game between Woburn and Winchester will be kicking off at 6:30 p.m. on Thanksgiving Eve (Wed Nov 24) at Fenway Park. I’m definitely going.

    1. Did you see the report I posted a while back from the NWS Taunton saying that it is recalibrated regularly using two tested gauges….wonder who suggested that long ago 😉 With one exception, every met I emailed didn’t see a problem. Using the link SAK provided, I keep an eye regularly and it is in line with surrounding areas.

    3. Yes, it seems generally accurate these days. I haven’t noticed any glaring issues in about 8 weeks.

  14. I was offered the job & I accepted it . After about a month on days training I should move into my new position working nights Tuesday – Saturday 11-7 shift . The job comes with a tremendous amount of responsibility & a significant pay raise . Appreciate all of you who have asked .

  15. First flakes of the season here in Sturbridge!!
    We have graupel falling at the moment. I would think graupel would technically count as flakes.

    1. Yes it would go in the snow (frozen precip) column on the official data sheet, so it counts.

        1. That one is a yes and no. It goes in the “frozen” column too but with an * … If you have hail in mid summer it’s not the same thing as saying you had snow, because the conditions that cause it are so well-defined and the only way you can get something frozen to fall to the ground in summer.

    2. We were just in Millbury and a large grey cloud was overhead surrounded by brilliant blue sky. My daughter said it looked like a snow cloud. And thanks to you, I can tell her it was.

      We had soft rain and a rainbow as well got back to Sutton

      https://imgur.com/a/zVk1utX

  16. ECMWF is at least good for comedy purposes regarding the weekend and that low to the south.

    Yesterday’s 00z run: Miss.
    Yesterday’s 12z run: Graze.
    Today’s 00z run: Hit.
    Today’s 12z run: Way offshore.

    Uh huh.

    1. I was just looking at the 12Z and ECMWF and I said to myself I need to hop on WHW because I know TK will have something to write identical to what I am saying to myself. Sure enough!

      The model was messy all summer, but as the seasons have changed towards the colder months it has been flat out wrong and often an outlier from the other guidance in the deterministic medium range. Yet, some TV mets continue to give it too much weight in their 7 day forecasts and futurecast depictions. For sure there are about 3 mets at Norton who have pin ups on their bedroom wall of ECMWF output and hate the thought of cheating on it with the GFS / GEFS.

      Forecaster beware, as we are now in that battleground / transition time of year that even in its best periods the ECMWF has often had its struggles with sensible weather outcomes.

    1. In general, yes. If you got a sticky door in dry weather it could very well be because something is offline (hinge, or frame).

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