Having quickly read well over 100 inane reasons on a single FB post re why not to wear a mask or why we just need to go back to normal and expose everyone to covid, this will cause a bit of a stir.
The wave in Europe is expanding and doing so in a very similar (eerily so) way to last year. I believe it’s fueled by seasonality, pockets of unvaccinated, waning immunity, but also AY. sub-lineages. Topol and others downplay this, which is a head-scratcher 20 months into this. When you downplay a successful set of mutations in a virus, you’re essentially saying that the virus’s path to survival – remember that’s it’s ONLY objective – isn’t anything to worry about. Huh?! We need to always be concerned about a successful virus mutation, even if it’s only 10-15% more transmissible than the parent. Why? Because this indicates the virus is still winning.
First it was many parts of Eastern Europe, which was and is setting records for hospitalizations and deaths. Vaccination rates there are low in most regions.
Then it spread to parts of highly vaccinated Western Europe (predictably if you’re reading this blog – it’s been one of my themes for 6 weeks). Now, Germany has recorded its highest number of cases EVER during the pandemic. Hospitalizations are rising fast nationwide.
I expect almost the entire European continent to be different shades of orange and red by November 15th. See map below (note, the gray simply indicates no data), Yes, this includes Spain and Portugal; the two most vaccinated countries. They’ll do better than others, but they can’t avoid this surge. Nor do I believe we can in the U.S. Per usual, I think we will do worse (deaths) ultimately than our European friends. We have piss-poor testing (availability is totally inadequate), no mitigation whatsoever, bad underlying health, and worse vaccination rates than most European countries.
Ugh. Why aren’t we fully masked everywhere with limits to numbers of folks inside to accommodate distancing. And why don’t we require proof of vaccination for many indoor venues or largely attended venues. We know it works. Washington state is just one example.
I may have said this. My youngest said it was right around this time last year when numbers jumped up
What’s dismaying to me is the misplaced emphasis on vaccinating 5-11 year olds. Children can get sick from Covid, and that is something we want to prevent. I am NOT minimizing that. But, the biggest drivers of this continuing pandemic – by a wide margin – are adults, and in particular unvaccinated adults or those waning immunity (breakthrough cases; mild or not).
So when Biden says vaccinating 5-11 year olds is a “turning point” in the “battle against this pandemic” I really wonder who’s informing him. Turning point? What!? It’s a tool, to be sure. But among tools in the toolkit it is by far the least important at this stage. Proper mitigation is much more important. And, we’re just not doing enough of that – from ventilation in indoor spaces, to masking, distancing, and crowd limits. And vaccinating the still unvaccinated is VITAL. I think the Administration has given up. It’s being defensive. It doesn’t want the political backlash from going into places with pockets of unvaccinated and going door to door to inform people of the need to vaccinate. Will such a strategy work? Probably not. But you’ve got to try and redouble efforts. And evidently the Administration isn’t trying anymore. Also, in our state, I’m not seeing enough public service announcements – on TV, radio, highway message boards – emphasizing the importance of vaccinations. Yes, even here in our highly vaccinated state we have not finished the job.
You need to get Biden’s ear! What kind of incompetence
are we experiencing?
You saw my post above re Biden’s new rules for unvaccinated?
I mean here.
With 745,000+ Americans already lost to COVID-19, its very likely that at some point it will approach 1,000,000 lives lost.
How many more thereafter?
Here’s an article from The Guardian that raises some good reasons why vaccinating children needs to be part of the solution…
Good article. Thank you. I absolutely agree vaccinating children is necessary. The question is ….are the vaccines safe. We know there are some issues. Folks like to say it is a small percent. But that is in the United States where there has been no discussion of limiting 12-18 to one dose. We wear blinders. That applies to both our health experts and our pediatricians. One size has never fit all. mRNA vaccines just have not been around long enough to know the impact on kids when they get older.
I wish I had the confidence I used to in our health experts. It is a really difficult decision for any parent.
Does the UK have approval for 5-11? I’m thinking the article numbers are pre 5-11.
I should add…..The article also raises some really good reasons why children should have a remote option.
Thank you, Amy.
Vicki just curious. Will your grandkids get vaccinated or are their parents undecided?
I’m pretty sure they will but they will wait and see. They have a legitimate concern with the idea that 11 year old kids get 1/3 (lowest) dose and 12 year olds get two full dose. That alone shows marked irresponsibility
Joshua, I was looking for something else and just saw your post on Dutch schools. Yikes. And I thought standardized testing was bad here. And they decide from sixth grade standardized tests what path kids will take in life…did I read that correctly. I’m awfully glad no one did that when I was in sixth grade.
I have always agreed that some kids do much better in school. What far too many educators have said is that some kids do better remotely. This is why I have said more times than anyone can count at this point that there should be a remote option (2021-2022) for safety but also for kids who learn better remotely. And it would be wise to monitor it to see if it continues post covid…..if we ever get post covid.
Note there are options other than using in-school teachers.
Just released data from the Netherlands. In September, 27% of hospitalizations were fully vaccinated patients. That number has risen to 44% by the end of October. No matter how you slice it that’s concerning. The obvious factor is the fact that the numbers of people vaccinated in the country are very high – 84% – so naturally the proportion of fully vaccinated will grow. BUT, the numbers of vaccinated grew very slowly in October, so there shouldn’t have been such a big leap from 27% to 44%. Also, the numbers of hospitalizations have tripled (at least) in October. If you had smaller numbers of hospitalized you wouldn’t worry nearly as much. But the numbers are growing by a lot. Waning immunity, obviously. Perhaps other factors as well.
Damn it, why doesn’t the CDC publish this kind of data? If they fear more vaccine hesitancy that’s a cop-out. By hiding data – I fear they’re doing so – they actually make vaccine hesitancy worse. The real numbers will come out. The implications are that we obviously must boost folks, but we also have to mitigate. Not a lockdown. But you cannot have indoor arenas packed with people. I’m sorry, but that’s a recipe for disaster. Same with bars. And schools must ALL continue to mask and distance where they can. I don’t care if every child and teacher is vaccinated. Doesn’t matter. We need to reduce spread and the chains of transmission. Otherwise we’ll be in this vicious cycle for years to come.
It is a cop out. Many people truly think we are back to normal…..right and left
Final note on Dutch data, and quite important. Vaccine efficacy against infection drops to less than 50% for all age groups about 4 to 5 months after being fully vaccinated. Still, vaccines protect very well against severe disease: 94% for those under 55; 92% for those 55-70; and 88% for those over 70. Note, these numbers have been decreasing over time, but it’s a relatively slight decrease. They’re doing a study for those over 80 and it’s estimated that effectiveness against severe disease may drop further, to around 84%. Not confirmed yet.
Thank you Joshua. Are we doing this study or publishing this information anywhere?
Probably, somewhere. I don’t know.
The data does NOT discourage me entirely. Prevention against disease severity is still very good. But, we still have many unvaccinated people who are definitely susceptible to possibility of severe disease. And, we have a lot of breakthrough cases. The Dutch, Austrians, Swiss, Swedes, and Germans all estimate that between 33 and 38% of new cases are breakthroughs. This provides fuel, if you will (kindling), for the virus to continue to burn through not only the unvaccinated population but also the vulnerable vaccinated population.
It doesn’t discourage me either. But wouldn’t it be nice if vaccinated folks knew they are not completely immune.
C-19 for 11-5 is ready.
Comments are closed.
Your no-hype southeastern New England weather blog!
Thanks TK.
Having quickly read well over 100 inane reasons on a single FB post re why not to wear a mask or why we just need to go back to normal and expose everyone to covid, this will cause a bit of a stir.
https://www.npr.org/2021/11/04/1048939858/osha-biden-vaccine-mandate-employers-100-workers
The wave in Europe is expanding and doing so in a very similar (eerily so) way to last year. I believe it’s fueled by seasonality, pockets of unvaccinated, waning immunity, but also AY. sub-lineages. Topol and others downplay this, which is a head-scratcher 20 months into this. When you downplay a successful set of mutations in a virus, you’re essentially saying that the virus’s path to survival – remember that’s it’s ONLY objective – isn’t anything to worry about. Huh?! We need to always be concerned about a successful virus mutation, even if it’s only 10-15% more transmissible than the parent. Why? Because this indicates the virus is still winning.
First it was many parts of Eastern Europe, which was and is setting records for hospitalizations and deaths. Vaccination rates there are low in most regions.
Then it spread to parts of highly vaccinated Western Europe (predictably if you’re reading this blog – it’s been one of my themes for 6 weeks). Now, Germany has recorded its highest number of cases EVER during the pandemic. Hospitalizations are rising fast nationwide.
I expect almost the entire European continent to be different shades of orange and red by November 15th. See map below (note, the gray simply indicates no data), Yes, this includes Spain and Portugal; the two most vaccinated countries. They’ll do better than others, but they can’t avoid this surge. Nor do I believe we can in the U.S. Per usual, I think we will do worse (deaths) ultimately than our European friends. We have piss-poor testing (availability is totally inadequate), no mitigation whatsoever, bad underlying health, and worse vaccination rates than most European countries.
https://twitter.com/ECDC_EU/status/1456221191648260097
Why do we not take heed? It’s beyond me.
The lake of mitigation steps boggles my mind.
Right the like. How about lack
Ugh. Why aren’t we fully masked everywhere with limits to numbers of folks inside to accommodate distancing. And why don’t we require proof of vaccination for many indoor venues or largely attended venues. We know it works. Washington state is just one example.
I may have said this. My youngest said it was right around this time last year when numbers jumped up
What’s dismaying to me is the misplaced emphasis on vaccinating 5-11 year olds. Children can get sick from Covid, and that is something we want to prevent. I am NOT minimizing that. But, the biggest drivers of this continuing pandemic – by a wide margin – are adults, and in particular unvaccinated adults or those waning immunity (breakthrough cases; mild or not).
So when Biden says vaccinating 5-11 year olds is a “turning point” in the “battle against this pandemic” I really wonder who’s informing him. Turning point? What!? It’s a tool, to be sure. But among tools in the toolkit it is by far the least important at this stage. Proper mitigation is much more important. And, we’re just not doing enough of that – from ventilation in indoor spaces, to masking, distancing, and crowd limits. And vaccinating the still unvaccinated is VITAL. I think the Administration has given up. It’s being defensive. It doesn’t want the political backlash from going into places with pockets of unvaccinated and going door to door to inform people of the need to vaccinate. Will such a strategy work? Probably not. But you’ve got to try and redouble efforts. And evidently the Administration isn’t trying anymore. Also, in our state, I’m not seeing enough public service announcements – on TV, radio, highway message boards – emphasizing the importance of vaccinations. Yes, even here in our highly vaccinated state we have not finished the job.
You need to get Biden’s ear! What kind of incompetence
are we experiencing?
You saw my post above re Biden’s new rules for unvaccinated?
I mean here.
With 745,000+ Americans already lost to COVID-19, its very likely that at some point it will approach 1,000,000 lives lost.
How many more thereafter?
Here’s an article from The Guardian that raises some good reasons why vaccinating children needs to be part of the solution…
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/04/england-covid-infection-rates-doubled-in-over-65s-between-september-and-october
Good article. Thank you. I absolutely agree vaccinating children is necessary. The question is ….are the vaccines safe. We know there are some issues. Folks like to say it is a small percent. But that is in the United States where there has been no discussion of limiting 12-18 to one dose. We wear blinders. That applies to both our health experts and our pediatricians. One size has never fit all. mRNA vaccines just have not been around long enough to know the impact on kids when they get older.
I wish I had the confidence I used to in our health experts. It is a really difficult decision for any parent.
Does the UK have approval for 5-11? I’m thinking the article numbers are pre 5-11.
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57888429
I should add…..The article also raises some really good reasons why children should have a remote option.
Thank you, Amy.
Vicki just curious. Will your grandkids get vaccinated or are their parents undecided?
I’m pretty sure they will but they will wait and see. They have a legitimate concern with the idea that 11 year old kids get 1/3 (lowest) dose and 12 year olds get two full dose. That alone shows marked irresponsibility
Joshua, I was looking for something else and just saw your post on Dutch schools. Yikes. And I thought standardized testing was bad here. And they decide from sixth grade standardized tests what path kids will take in life…did I read that correctly. I’m awfully glad no one did that when I was in sixth grade.
I have always agreed that some kids do much better in school. What far too many educators have said is that some kids do better remotely. This is why I have said more times than anyone can count at this point that there should be a remote option (2021-2022) for safety but also for kids who learn better remotely. And it would be wise to monitor it to see if it continues post covid…..if we ever get post covid.
Note there are options other than using in-school teachers.
Just released data from the Netherlands. In September, 27% of hospitalizations were fully vaccinated patients. That number has risen to 44% by the end of October. No matter how you slice it that’s concerning. The obvious factor is the fact that the numbers of people vaccinated in the country are very high – 84% – so naturally the proportion of fully vaccinated will grow. BUT, the numbers of vaccinated grew very slowly in October, so there shouldn’t have been such a big leap from 27% to 44%. Also, the numbers of hospitalizations have tripled (at least) in October. If you had smaller numbers of hospitalized you wouldn’t worry nearly as much. But the numbers are growing by a lot. Waning immunity, obviously. Perhaps other factors as well.
Damn it, why doesn’t the CDC publish this kind of data? If they fear more vaccine hesitancy that’s a cop-out. By hiding data – I fear they’re doing so – they actually make vaccine hesitancy worse. The real numbers will come out. The implications are that we obviously must boost folks, but we also have to mitigate. Not a lockdown. But you cannot have indoor arenas packed with people. I’m sorry, but that’s a recipe for disaster. Same with bars. And schools must ALL continue to mask and distance where they can. I don’t care if every child and teacher is vaccinated. Doesn’t matter. We need to reduce spread and the chains of transmission. Otherwise we’ll be in this vicious cycle for years to come.
It is a cop out. Many people truly think we are back to normal…..right and left
Final note on Dutch data, and quite important. Vaccine efficacy against infection drops to less than 50% for all age groups about 4 to 5 months after being fully vaccinated. Still, vaccines protect very well against severe disease: 94% for those under 55; 92% for those 55-70; and 88% for those over 70. Note, these numbers have been decreasing over time, but it’s a relatively slight decrease. They’re doing a study for those over 80 and it’s estimated that effectiveness against severe disease may drop further, to around 84%. Not confirmed yet.
Thank you Joshua. Are we doing this study or publishing this information anywhere?
Probably, somewhere. I don’t know.
The data does NOT discourage me entirely. Prevention against disease severity is still very good. But, we still have many unvaccinated people who are definitely susceptible to possibility of severe disease. And, we have a lot of breakthrough cases. The Dutch, Austrians, Swiss, Swedes, and Germans all estimate that between 33 and 38% of new cases are breakthroughs. This provides fuel, if you will (kindling), for the virus to continue to burn through not only the unvaccinated population but also the vulnerable vaccinated population.
It doesn’t discourage me either. But wouldn’t it be nice if vaccinated folks knew they are not completely immune.
C-19 for 11-5 is ready.