Friday November 5 2021 Forecast (7:34AM)

47 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 5-9)

A batch of low level moisture on the northern periphery of a low pressure circulation well offshore may bring a couple rain showers to the South Shore and Cape Cod / Islands regions of Massachusetts this morning, otherwise it’s dry times for the next 5 days as the first offshore storm moves away, a second and larger-sized but further offshore storm misses us by quite a distance later in the weekend, and high pressure dominates our weather. The coldest part of this period will be this morning and the two weekend mornings. Otherwise this forecast features the cooler days early in the period and then a moderating trend.

TODAY: Lots of clouds southeastern MA with a possible rain shower this morning, then increasing sun there. Mostly sunny elsewhere. Highs 47-54. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH, strongest Cape Cod.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 25-30 except 30-35 immediate coast and urban centers. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 30-37. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 49-56. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 33-40. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 10-14)

Low pressure passes north of the area on November 10 with a warm front / cold front combo bringing some clouds but probably little or no rainfall. High pressure builds in with fair weather for Veterans Day November 11. Expected milder but unsettled weather as we get into a southwesterly air flow and the storm track in the November 12-14 time frame.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 15-19)

Some up and down temperatures with a more westerly flow. At least one disturbance should bring a chance of some unsettled weather but the overall pattern will be dry for this period.

47 thoughts on “Friday November 5 2021 Forecast (7:34AM)”

  6. Thank you, TK.

    Gorgeous November weather. We’ve been blessed most of the last 5 weeks. One week of some gray and gloom, but the rest has often been clear and sunny. I find these November morning skies – a prelude to winter – extraordinarily beautiful.

  7. Thank you, TK.

    I saw 26 at around 3:00. Have not checked final number but the grass was solid white again

    SSK, speaking of grass….ours finally came in and looks a whole lot better than I expected. Thank you for your help

    1. Glad to hear about the grass Vicki! Mine came in better than expected too. I did a mini lawn reno for my neighbor too and even though it was late in the game its coming in great too and should survive the winter. Make sure you spread a good dose of winterizer fertilizer or another dose of starter around or just after thanksgiving.

      1. Wonderful. The late cooler temps sure helped, didn’t they?

        I didn’t know that. Fertilizer and no weed killer …correct?

    2. That’s great . I bet it comes up fast & thick come spring after it’s treated . Hope all is well .

    1. Beautiful view ! It really does look nice !!

      Hopefully, we’ll have to go to mountain cams all winter to see snow. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  13. Thanks TK.

    Looks like a continued beautiful stretch of weather coming up. We’ve had a lot of warm stretches this fall, and another one on the way heading into early next week.

    However, the back half of this month likely turns colder, stormier, and possibly snowier…

    1. Agree on all.
      Snow shovels may be out early this season.
      And we both know that doesn’t guarantee a “snowy winter” either. Still putting my final pieces of the puzzle together for the winter forecast. I’ve read some outlooks from colleagues and a couple from mets I don’t know personally but have decent reputations, and so far we all seem to be in the same general mode of thought.

      What mode is that? We’ll chat about that soon!

        1. Ocean temp still nearly 4 degrees above average for this date (3.74 to be exact). I hope any possible snow
          situations come with a Northerly wind and not much
          of any component off of the ocean or else be a very cold air mass.

  14. Does Logan get to 32 tonight?

    Sky will be clear. Wind will be fairly light. Dew point will be low enough. I think it comes down to wind speed. If they go under 5 MPH for a few hours, 32 or 31. If they don’t, 33 or 34.

    1. Sounds reasonable. Let’s see what happens.

      IF that is the case, good chance for upper 20s here in JP.

      Will let you know. thanks

      1. I’ll be keeping an eye on it. Planning to be up about 5 a.m. so I’ll be checking just before min temp time.

  15. Eric Fisher
    @ericfisher
    40m

    Working on winter outlook things over the next week. A lot of guidance likes the idea of the typical La Nina front-loaded style winter with best bets of cold/snow in December.

  18. Another Winter Outlook that just came out from a met consulting firm, “Neoweather” in Ohio. Interesting read and graphics.

    https://neoweather.us/seasonal/outlooks/winter-weather/winter-forecast-21-22-better-cold-snow-shots/

    Interesting that they note second year La Ninas are often impacted by more PV disruptions.

    For the northeast, they like near normal temps and snowfall along the coastal plain ramping up to below normal temps and above to much above normal snow as you head inland. Active storm track. I would endorse this…epic ski season in the mountains if this verified and a respectable winter for us in SNE as well.

  19. Here’s another Northeast Winter Weather Outlook from NY NJ PA Weather. This site is run by Meteorologist Steve DiMartino:

    https://nynjpaweather.com/public/2021/10/20/the-2021-2022-winter-forecast-the-chaos-of-a-polar-vortex-disruption/

    Similar thinking to the above forecast. Active storm track with colder and snowier odds ramping up significantly as you head to the interior of SNE and CNE. Warmer than normal with more rain events as you head southeast to the Cape and Islands, and eastern LI.

  21. NWS hour-by-hour forecast predicts a low of 33 for Logan. It’s going to be close. I still say if they can get the wind to go just a tiny bit more NW and drop to under 5 MPH they get to 32 or 31. Last ob the wind was N at 5 MPH.

    1. It’s a nice feeling knowing I won’t be working outside in the cold every day . Im still doing snow but I may not do them all as it won’t be mandatory for me now

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