Saturday November 6 2021 Forecast (6:08AM)

39 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 6-10)

High pressure dominates our weather today. An ocean storm passes southeast of New England Sunday through early Monday as high pressure maintains its hold here and continues to do so through Tuesday as well. Low pressure passes north of the region Wednesday with a rain-free warm front / cold front combo going through the region. The coolest air of these 5 days will be around this weekend, followed by a temperature moderation.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 27-34. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 49-56. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 33-40. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 11-15)

A more changeable and active pattern sets in during this period. Veterans Day November 11 is expected to see fair weather with high pressure in control. After this we enter a southwesterly air flow and more active disturbance pattern with milder but more unsettled weather expected. Details to be focused on as we get a little closer…

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 16-20)

Some up and down temperatures with a more westerly flow. At least one disturbance should bring a chance of some unsettled weather but the overall pattern will be dry for this period.

39 thoughts on “Saturday November 6 2021 Forecast (6:08AM)”

  1. Only 36 at Logan this morning, the wind stayed up around 5-7 knots for most of the night. The 36 is legit, as most of the obs in an around downtown were 34-37, but get a few miles away from the city and it quickly dropped into the 20s.

    The cold spot for the region this morning was actually Martha’s Vineyard with a low of 19!

  3. One last chance (for the month?) tonight for Logan at 32. I bet they just miss it by a degree or two. 33-34?

    It’s probably their best opportunity so far. We will see.

    Thanks TK.

    2. The latest run of the 45-day ECMWF has the following days with at least 10 of the 50 members showing BOS with a low of 32 or colder:

      11/7, 11/11, 11/12 and every single day from 11/15 to the end of the month.

      The latest run of the 35-day GFS has the following days where at least 5 of the 30 members showing BOS with a low of 32 or colder every day from 11/15 to the end of the month as well.

      Most of the long range models show a significantly colder pattern shaping up for the 2nd half of the month (as was mentioned in the comments several times yesterday).

      So, please, explain why you think tonight is the last chance that Logan has to reach 32 for the rest of the month, despite all evidence to the contrary?

      1. Wasn’t there old information calling for the rest of the month being warmer than average? Perhaps that was his basis?

        1. Nope, most of the long-range forecasts for the past few months have called for a fast start to winter in late-November and December before any potential warmup for the 2nd half of winter.

        2. Even if the month ended up warmer than normal, it’s almost a certainty that Logan will go below freezing at least once.

          But we (the met community) have been talking about a notable flip to a colder pattern, at least for a while, later in the month. Yes of course it can change between now and then but the evidence is rather strong compared to many cases so the confidence is a little higher than it might be.

          But declaring November 6th as the last chance for Logan to go below freezing is basically like declaring that January and February will be completely snowless. 🙂

  6. This morning Kelly Ann on Ch. 5 showed the CPC 6-10 day outlook of warmer than normal temps so that’s why I assumed it would likely be awhile for Logan to reach 32 if it doesn’t tonight. I didn’t know that the longer range outlook is for below normal temps for late month into early December. When I get up in the morning I only have time to watch the tv mets and “whatever” they provide and head off to work.

    Is it safe to say then that Logan won’t likely reach 32 in the “shorter term” if they don’t do it tonight?

    This is why I come here to WHW to get extra weather/climate info that the tv mets don’t have time to provide.

    Thanks as always TK! 🙂

    1. They have a shot tomorrow morning but that will depend on cloud cover. If I had to say yes or no for tomorrow I would say no. But even with a milder outlook in the medium range you can still get a sneaky cold morning if you set up radiational cooling. Sometimes we have very large diurnal ranges even at this time of year (it’s probably a little more common in spring than it is now but it still can happen now).

      This is not part of my forecast at the moment specifically but it is an example: You have a November day with a high in the 50s perhaps. High pressure area goes right overhead and the wind drops to come at night with the dew point in the 20s. Logan drops to 31, 30, maybe even upper 20s if it’s calm, taking into account we have many more hours of dark than we do daylight now. High pressure area slides a little bit offshore by the next afternoon and they bounce all the way back up to 60, quite a mild day for November, would average above normal, but still have a below freezing low temp. Something like this could very well happen next week or the week after before we get into a colder pattern. We will have to see…

  8. Good morning. Someone forgot to set her alarms. Never thought I could sleep till 9:00

    We have dropped one degree each day. Last four days, in order,…..26,25,24,23.

    As far as growing season, I know my oldest still had a few tomatoes but will check with her this morning. But Mac’s garden is still growing. I like to think the vinca is holding non till Mac”s angel day on the 11th

    https://imgur.com/a/HxnR7pf

  15. 00z ECMWF and 6z GFS both showing the potential for some snow with a system next Monday.

    Related to the discussion earlier, FWIW the last several runs of the CFS are indicating some very cold air for the 2nd half of November and much of December. Yesterday’s 18z run had the period from 11/14-12/14 averaging 7-9 degrees below normal around here (That’s the average for the entire 30 days). Today’s 00z run has the week of 12/13-12/20 averaging 10-15 degrees below normal.

    The 35-day GFS also shows it turning colder, but not to that magnitude (more like 2-4 degrees below normal). The 46-day ECMWF has temperatures near to a little below normal for that period.

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