Light To Moderate Snowfall Saturday

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4:20PM

A cold front whistled across New England Friday morning accompanied by passing clouds. Cold high pressure is building across the region at this time and will remain in place tonight before retreating into the Canadian Maritimes during Saturday. The frontal boundary now south of New England will be the running board for an open wave of low pressure moving west to east and passing just south of New England during Saturday. This will produce a light to moderate snowfall across southern New England, but it will be a light and dry snow in just about all of the region – easy to move. Only slightly wetter snow will occur over Cape Cod and the Islands and even some mixed precipitation may get involved there due to warmer ocean water warming the lower levels of the atmosphere. Sunday, high pressure will continue to hold on to the north of the region, sending a northeast wind into southern New England. This may produce some ocean-effect snow showers. As the high pressure area slides more to the southeast an approaching warm front will provide focus for moisture and warmer air to ride over New England, and with lingering cold air at the ground, the setup for some icing will be in place as rain breaks out due to the warming air aloft. Icing may linger into Monday morning over inland areas where cold air can be tough to dislodge. Areas closer to the coast will warm sufficiently so that plain rain will be falling by Monday morning. Eventually, all inland areas will warm to above freezing so that Monday turns into a rainy day for just about the entire region. Once a cold front crosses the region from west to east Monday night or early Tuesday, drier weather will move in, but this may prompt someone to argue the definition of a cold front since Tuesday will probably turn out to be the warmest day of the next several days. A secondary cold front late Tuesday will introduce colder air for the middle of next week.

Weather for Patriots/Ravens game in Foxboro at 3PM Sunday: Lots of clouds, chance of a snow shower, kick-off temp 33, end-of-game temp 30. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Increasing cloudiness. Low ranging from near 5 inland valleys to 15 coastline. Wind NW under 10 MPH early then diminishing to calm.

SATURDAY: Overcast. Snow of 2 to 5 inches with some 6 inch amounts possible in areas south of the Mass Pike and near some north-facing coastal areas to the south of Boston. High 22-27. Wind N-NE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of a few lingering light snow showers. Low 15-20. Wind N-NE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers, best chance closer to the coastline. High 30-35. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of snow showers early. Chance of sleet and freezing rain inland and sleet, freezing rain, or plain rain closer to the coast. Low 25-30 inland, 30-35 coast. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Rain likely, but some icing conditions may persist over inland lower elevations during the morning. High 42-47 but probably  not until late day. Winds light E inland areas, SE 5-15 MPH coastal areas during the morning, eventually shifting to S and increasing to 10-20 MPH during the afternoon.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers.  Low 42. High 53.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 35.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 36.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of mix/rain. Low 29. High 42.

124 thoughts on “Light To Moderate Snowfall Saturday”

    1. However, this is from the NWS at Taunton, 4:37 PM

      18Z GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO INDICATE
      POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MAIN SNOW BAND…
      WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BY LATER SHIFTS.

      1. This is from Upton NY NWS office. Hmmm….

        WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED FOR WHOLE AREA. MODELS HAVE GOOD
        CONSENSUS OF AT 0.3 TO 0.5 LIQUID EQUIVALENT ACROSS THE AREA.
        INTERIOR AREAS CONSIDERING 15 TO 1 LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS MAKES
        FOR A WIDE AREA OF BETWEEN 5 AND ISOLATED AREAS OF 6 INCHES OF
        SNOW. LOWER AMOUNTS MAINLY IN THE 4 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ELSEWHERE.

        Some Differences between the 2 offices.

  3. as i said this morning a non event for areas around 495 . 🙁
    4-8 for areas south of the pike
    2-4 inches around the pike.
    0-2 inches south of rt 2 higher amounts further south you go. and the further east.
    dustings north of rt 2.
    snow should over spread the area from southwest to northeast east and then pull out to the southeast.

  5. It complete agreement with TK. I might massage the totals to 2-5″ with a general 3 or so in most of the Metro Boston area. Trending up as you go south and down as you go north. I also suspect wetter snow makes it further north than the cape. Up to areas like Taunton / Bridgewater.

    Monday, GFS is a bit cooler than previous runs, but I do not expect prolonged icing, but I suppose its possible.

  6. Thanks, TK.

    I am enjoying this winter weather – feeling more normal. As I have said before, I like to enjoy each season for what it is. A winter without much snow or cold temps. would not feel right. However, as pretty as ice can be, I don’t like ice storms, e.g. driving and potential loss of electricity – especially in the winter. Winter weather advisory sure looks to be covering a good-sized area of the northeast into the midwest with some winter storm warnings, too.

  7. I looked at the daily climatological data for Boston as I always do and noticed that Boston received 1.5″ of snow today, but more importantly on this date in 1978 Boston received 21.0″ of snow. This storm preceded the great Bizzard 3 weeks later (Feb. 5-7). How many here remember? I certainly do. 🙂

    Also for those keeping track…Boston snowfall so far 2011-12* = 4.7″. 🙂

    2. I was wondering what Boston came in at, I saw South Boston had one inch. Hey what part of Dot are you in.

    4. I remember the winter well. I was “accidentally” trapped at my now husband’s apartment in Medford for the entire Feb blizzard but also was there for the preceding storm.

      1. Usually, Dot people ask which parish they were from. I never lived there but work with a lot of guys that grew up there.

  10. wbz has but the 3-6 inch range streatched all the way to 495 so it gives me some hope but not counting on it

  11. so when i woke up this morning seeing all the snow. All i said was I hope that it does not melt before i get out of mid terms today, i got out seeing about 3 inches. when I got home I shoveled snow onto my sleeding hill. first natural snow on it this year. Nice layer of powder on top of the icy man made snow. I took acouple of runs on it before the younger kids came.

  12. This will be a nice fluffy snow instead of a heavy wet snow to shovel which makes a big difference.

  15. I know John. I am here tonight like I am every night:) that’s what happens when you kids and a pregnant wife 🙂

    1. I hear ya.We don’t do too much either. I’m heading out for a couple hrs, my wife is sick. When is the baby coming.

        1. It was exceptional. Son had plans for the night so we had an early dinner so he could head back to town. I so love this area. Sorry your wife is sick. Does she have that cold virus with sinus pressure and cough going around ?

          1. Not sure. Saying feels like a truck hit her. She has been sleeping all day. Yes It is very nice down here.

  17. Hey guys! 🙂 So excited. Finally, the first appreciable snowfall of the season. No time for details but look for a moderate snowfall for much of SNE. Immediate Boston area 3-5 inches. Southwestern suburbs down to plymouth, taunton and providence should hit the jackpot with places there seeing 6+ inches. Slightly less over the southcoast and islands due to possible mixing issues and lower snow ratios. Storm is progressive but will gather some atlantic moisture. Wildcard this time is ocean enhancement. This is why I think sweetspot will be over the southwestern or and southern suburbs with some places exceeding more than half a foot of snow. Enjoy and be safe!

    1. Hadi, Being a May baby, I’m partial to the month of May! How very exciting… a baby on the way 🙂

  20. Hopefully no major changes with the 0z runs.
    Snow Index 2 Mass Pike South 4 plus inches
    Snow Index 1 North of The Pike under 4 inches.
    Will see how this pans out.

  23. 00z NAM coming more in line with other models.

    Providence .39
    Taunton .36
    Hartford .27
    Boston .21
    Worcester .19
    Springfield .18
    Manchester .10

  24. Don’t like that run at all. Hadi I agree I think it will be a nowcasting event. It looks like the winter weather advisories will stand not get to warning criteria.

  25. All storms are nowcasters. This one is just moving too fast to do a real region wide dumping. In a normal winter this storm would not offer too much excitement, but this year is a littler different. I see the potential for a few locally heavier amounts, but to me this just the NAM running home to the most sensible solution.

    Hadi-quick quiz, what model’s precipitation scale do I always bitch about in 24-48 hour range?

  26. NAM always overdone:) you are so right normally I would barely pay attention but this winter is different!!

  27. Can someone translate the numbers (e.g. .25) for me. Sorry. I have little real weather knowledge. Just a love of weather

  28. .25 precip amount then figure out temp and potential ratios for liquid to snow. This storm probably around 12:- or 15:1. So 1 inch of liquid would equal 12-15 inches of snow. So we are looking at 2-4 inch range.

  29. JMA I am so eager to go out and play with my son bc he now understands snow that my heart gets in the way of what I know so wishing more then what I know is reality 🙂 its called wishcasting and I hate doing it!!

  31. I hear you. While snow can create some havoc in my life, I have two boys who just can’t wait to play in it and ask each day when they wake up if it might snow today?

  32. There is gonna be a sharp cut off somewhere between Boston and Manchester nh, a place like Boston could get 3-4 inches while Methuen could get just a few snowshowers and just coat the ground, I’m really beginning to believe Providence comes in with jackpot of 5-7 inches.

    1. I think it starts in sw suburbs around 1am, Boston around 2am, and areas just north around 3am, the brunt of the snow I believe comes through between 6am-noon when low pressure is at its closet, take it easy and have a good night 🙂

      1. So catch me up. Has the storm fizzeled out. Is south shore now not going to get six inches. It seems like you guys are talking about that, not sure.

        1. It seems like south of the pike and south shore figure to get the most. Todd on BZ just said 3-6″ south of pike and 1-3″ north. He also gave a midnight start time and said heaviest precip will be from 11 am to 1 pm.

          1. Yes Harvey just caught me up. I wonder if any of us down here will see the seven inches.
            1.COASTAL/HANOVER
            2.JOHN/PEMBROKE
            3.TOM/MARSHFIELD
            4.VICKI/SCITUATE

      2. I was outside at 1AM and it was still mostly clear overhead with stars shining, but about an hour later it was cloudy.

  35. Going to delay snow onset based on gfs nam sref, soundings and current obs. Significant dry air at 500mb, at 11pm not snowing in Syracuse or any where in new jersey. It will take a while to saturate. Onset 6am-9am, west to east. Lower amounts seem like way to go. Snow should be done by 4-7 west to east. Storm will be further south than modeled earlier.

    1. If this pans out though are area should be looking at lower 5inches with higher likely in the 6-7 range.I would say the six would be the best.

  36. Boston currently has a 1 degree dew point, even NYC has a 8 degree dew point. This thing has bust potential written all over it.

  38. Ready to watch it snow 🙂

    More snow/wintry precip events coming in the next several weeks.

    I dont think we see great atmospheric pattern/ teleconnection changes. But, I think the weight of accumulated cold dense air in Canada is enough to shift the storm track south on some storms OR provide cold high pressure areas to our north.

  39. Albany, NY … 1.5 mile visibility in light snow. Central NY State avg visibilities are 2 to 3 miles.

    However..there is an area of steadier snows around Binghamton, NY to Scranton, PA. If that translates due east and maintains intensity, that should hit Boston southward.

  41. Joe Joyce, WBZ, at 6 am: 2-4″ most areas; 3-6″ way south and southeast MA.

    Track + low dew points + location of moisture = not much.

  43. Just started to snow here in Hanover.

    I am going to guess 5.5″ of new snow today. Anyone else want to guess for their location?

    1. Come on Hadi! Where is your optimism? I am going to say 4″ for you there. Charlie will get 1/2″ 🙂 and Tom will get 5″.

      Tom, keep an eye for that ocean enhancement.

  46. I’m guessing 6.3 Humarock. I know that’s high but I just like those numbers. I’ll say 4 for Framingham.

    1. It was snowing at a pretty good good clip about 15 minutes ago, but now it’s a very fine snow here in Brighton. Coastal, in case you didn’t get my guess I’m going with 5″ in Brighton

  55. fine snow falling almost straight down…intensity pulses btwn light and steady.

    Will go with 4.7 inches, going conservative on prediction……….wont be surprised by precip lightly continuing through the evening near immediate coastline after main precip shield has passed by.

  56. Tweet from Harvey around midnight

    I would think Boston should just make it into the 3-7″ area, so 3-4″ is a good bet, unless big fluff factor

  57. Tom I noticed a more NE or NNE component to the wind along the coast. Under 5mph but it was calm in those locations until 30 minutes ago.

    1. Yes. My neighbor’s chimney across the street has some smoke pouring out of it and it is slightly moving in that direction.

      I think when the weak low is passing due south of our location, the winds will increase towards 10 to 15 mph from the N or NNE and thats when the ocean may add a bit of enhancement then.

  58. Snowing lightly in Pelham, NH; which is just over the border with Dracut, MA. I am expecting we will see just under 2 inches. Although, at 14 degrees our fluff factor will be very high.

  59. About 1/2 hr. ago Sudbury had about 1/2 inch of snow on top of yesterday’s snow. Could be a little more now, ‘though it’s only snowing lightly now. The doppler radar was showing a few mins. ago a good batch of snow(I am assuming it is snow – nws doesn’t differentiate between snow or rain) heading to the northeast. If it holds together, it looks like parts of central MA could get it as well as southeastern MA.

  60. Its funny, just can never fully tell where the best snow bands will set up. Right now, Springfield -Worcester – Boston is snowing harder than say Providence – Plymouth.

    1. John – hope your wife is feeling better.

      Hadi – May is a good month to have a baby. My husband’s birthday is May 11.

      Vicki – how is it on the beach with this snowstorm? I may take a little walk later on in the snow – have been wanting to do that for some time! 🙂

      1. Hi rainshine – it’s fun watching the waves come up over the snow on the sand. The ocean is relatively quiet so I’m hoping it picks up some a bit later. Tom would know if that’s possible I’m sure. We will take a walk later too 🙂

    2. Tom – sorry – I started to reply to you and ask a question but thought the question was silly – so I decided to post other things. I might as well ask you the question, then –

      Tom, is there a reason why it’s so hard to tell where the best snow bands will set up? Is there a difference between rain and snow bands?

  61. Already an inch or so in Marblehead, not falling that heavily, but with a 17 degree temp, it adds up FAST.

  64. A snowarama across SNE today. I have been waiting to say that for a while. A quick hitting storm system with the back edge showing up in Central PA. It should snow a good part of the day. Be careful to anyone who has to travel today and it will be on the chilly side tonight. I am going to enjoy the snow because I have a feeling with the rainorama on tap for Monday most of this will wash away.

  65. Radar trends show the heaviest is just about over N & W of 95 in areas north of the Pike.

    Amounts mostly on track.

    For me it’s nice to have this on a day I don’t have to go anywhere, can wait until it’s done to shovel the fluff, then maybe take a few sled rides down a nearby hill with my son. 🙂

    1. P.S. .. I deleted 3 comments that were stuck at the bottom of the page after I removed the post matt requested be removed. The replies got stuck there a-la WBZ blog. It’s a Word Press thing I guess.

      Anyway they were not essential to the discussion so nothing is lost. 🙂

      Onto the next blog!

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