Monday November 8 2021 Forecast (7:30AM)

60 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 8-12)

High pressure provides continued fair weather with a warming trend through Tuesday. Low pressure sails eastward across eastern Canada Tuesday night and early Wednesday, dragging a frontal system through here with clouds and a rain shower threat mostly in southern NH and northern MA during Wednesday morning. This front will introduce a slight cool-down for the middle of the week, including Veterans Day (Thursday), but high pressure moving in on that day will bring dry weather, favorable for any outdoor observances / parades. Friday, high pressure heads offshore and a broad area of low pressure moves into the Great Lakes, but this will be a mature system and its frontal system will be pushing eastward more quickly than the parent low, so expect unsettled weather to quickly arrive with lots of clouds and rain showers as well.

TODAY: Limited sun Cape Cod & Islands into mid morning, otherwise sunny. Highs 54-61. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 33-40. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy morning with rain showers possible mainly north of I-90. Mostly sunny afternoon. Highs 55-62. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY (VETERANS DAY): Mostly sunny. Highs 51-58. Wind N up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 42-49. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers likely, mainly in the afternoon. Highs 56-63. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 13-17)

The question to answer for the November 13-14 weekend is whether or not there will be any additional rainfall. Right now it looks like the frontal system that approaches on Friday will have moved offshore by early Saturday but should be close enough that if a wave of low pressure moves up along it, and it probably will, that some additional rain showers may occur especially early in the day and favoring eastern areas. Will watch and fine tune this as we go through the next few days. Right now Sunday (Nov 14) looks breezy, chilly, and dry. A disturbance may bring rain showers for November 15 and this should be followed by drier weather but a shot of colder air later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 18-22)

Some temperature moderation is expected at least for the early part of this period and then we will have to watch for a disturbance / storm system to move through at some point which may be followed by another shot of early-season cold. There are uncertainties on the evolution of the pattern as we head through mid month so additional evaluation will be needed.

60 thoughts on “Monday November 8 2021 Forecast (7:30AM)”

  6. Thanks TK.

    Yesterday Logan got down to 34 as its official low temp as of 6:10 am. It must have really “plummeted” because iirc when I was watching the tv mets at 5:15 their Logan temp was only 38. I left for work prior to 6:00 am and never checked again.

    It’s not 32 but almost there.

    1. Well I wouldn’t call 4° a plummet but it’s possible that the information you saw was already an hour old.

      It was clear and calm which are perfect conditions for the temperature to drop anyway. I’m not surprised it got to where it did.

      1. When I used the word “plummet” I spoke in extremely relative terms. That’s why I used quotation marks.
        😉

  8. Okay they get two today…
    Right after, The same anchor said that we would be seeing rain arrive for this coming weekend right after the AccuWeather guy said it would be drying out this weekend..

    1. I learned decades ago never to listen to weather on the radio….or I’d I did to just use it for amusement. You’d think in that amount of time, they’d fix the problem. Even back then, I’d reach out to them. I think NPR has the best

      1. I agree. Unless the actual met is on air on the radio, radio forecasts are and always have been USELESS!!!!!!!
        I have NEVER paid any attention to them whatsoever!!!!

        3. Hey, that’s my living! I’m on two dozen radio stations across the nation every night and morning drive giving the forecast.

            1. The vast majority (over 90%) of all forecasts you hear on the air with an actual meteorologist are taped. My shift (nights is all tapes). When I worked the day shift a couple of weeks ago filling in, I had just 2 live feeds all day out of dozens – 1 a little after midday with WSAR in Fall River, and 1 with a radio station in Jamaica in the middle of the afternoon.

              When I’m on my normal schedule, you can hear my forecasts during the morning around here on the RenewFM group of stations (https://renewfm.org/about/stations/) as well as WXEX out of Exeter, NH a.k.a. Seacoast Oldies (https://seacoastoldies.com/) and WMVY from the Vineyard and Newport (https://www.mvyradio.org/)

                1. Christian radio. Not something I would ever listen to, but I’d tune in to hear SAK if I knew a time. 🙂

                1. Not a clue. I know that they grab the forecast from us after 5am, so it won’t be played before that, and it doesn’t get updated until after 4pm, so it plays all day (for the Renew group at least).

    1. I hope the leaf fall is done by Christmas at least. Perhaps a leaf blower may be more appropriate under the tree this year as opposed to the usual flexible flyer.

  16. Thanks TK.

    It was 9 years ago today (and yesterday) we had an early season snowstorm that dropped nearly 6″ at my house and up to 10″ in parts of southern New England. Even the shoreline got into the act with moderate accumulations. Notable in that this storm was only one week after Sandy in 2012 and hampered some of the cleanup efforts.

    https://twitter.com/ryanhanrahan/status/1457354763146760198?s=20

    This was the start of what turned into the snowiest season for me since I moved to Coventry. I received 100″ that winter, with over half of that falling in the Feb 8 blizzard (32″) and that freak ocean storm in March with the 500 mile fetch off the Atlantic (20″). Despite all that snow, I remember it being a fairly mild winter overall with many stretches of bare ground.

    1. Thanks, Mark. I do recall that storm as well as, of course, Sandy

      This is another one I’ll head back in the whw archives to read about

      1. I had a meeting near Norwich that night…..was one of the worst, white knuckle drives I have ever head. Took me 2.5 hours to get there. Cars strewn all over the place, unable to make it up hills. Accumulating snow and black ice forming underneath. Everyone was caught way off guard!

  17. Thanks TK. Beautiful day!

    The late month cold may end up being a “delayed but not denied” story. It’s also likely, and TK’s forecast says as much, that the transition will be more stair-stepped as we alternate through several air mass changes. The MJO is not being especially cooperative, and that may keep things in check for awhile. But I do think there remains an opportunity for a legitimate stretch of sustained colder than normal weather (rather unusual these days) towards the end of this month and potentially into next month.

    1. Thank you, WxW. Might be a good idea for my son in law to blow out the irrigation system. Hope all is well and you have an opportunity to enjoy this beautiful day

    2. WX will you be giving us your winter prediction for this upcoming winter & TK can we expect yours by the end of the weekend as I think in past years this is what you have done . Just curious but it’s not my problem this year , I probably will participate in some events as the storms will be way more money .

    1. When you take the first 2 decades of the 2000s and the last decade of the 1900s into account, the last 30 years are snowier, hence the increase in “averages” for 30-year normals. It’s all right in front of us. 🙂

      I love that table of info there and refer to it often!

      1. Later snow in ski areas. I don’t have first hand experience with other areas. It is as expected and warned. Do you have comparison tables going back decades?

  20. 12z CMC with accumulating snow one week from today:

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2021110812&fh=180

    The GFS, Euro and Icon all have a similar setup with cold air and a big trough over the east however are not as organized with the wave of low pressure that rounds the base of the trough like the CMC. It is an interesting setup though and the possibility is there for many of us to see at least a few flakes.

    1. Check that…the 12z Euro now actually wraps up another low and sends it west of us, delivering another rain storm for us before the colder air floods in.

  21. Also of note, the 12z models keep the front and associated showers moving through the region Friday night, setting up a dry Saturday.

  22. Mark I remember that snowstorm you mentioned. Bridgeport where the shoreline records are kept got over half a foot of snow. Even NYC had accumulating snow.

  23. Coming home this late afternoon, I got to see in the western sky the crescent moon with Venus just below to the right. Beautiful if not spectacular! 🙂

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