29 thoughts on “C-19 Chat Post – November 11 2021”
Thanks TK!
A short “hard” lockdown is now likely in the Netherlands and possibly Belgium, and perhaps a longer one in Germany. This would mean everything would close for 2 weeks in the Netherlands, except essential stores like supermarkets and pharmacies; a strict stay-at-home order would be in place.
The main reason this time, according to the government, is that hospitals in parts of the south of the country are overwhelmed and the situation is deteriorating. Note, the situation in the Netherlands is nowhere near as bad in terms of hospitalizations as, for instance, Florida and Mississippi this summer, or Idaho and Alaska. But, unlike those states it’s not accepting mass deaths as an option. Also keep in mind that the Dutch government is conservative. I would call it old-fashioned Republican in many ways: Low taxes, keep government intervention in business and people’s lives to a minimum, except when it comes to public health.
Joshua, how is Italy doing? My in-laws are there (US citizens) and have been since late Sept. visiting family and harvesting olives). They’re planning to return to the US just after Thanksgiving. Do you foresee them having difficulty getting back?
How special does them. Abruzzo area?? Or did I make that up? Prayers for their visit and safe return home.
Special for them not does. No idea where that came from
Ace, so far Italy has fared MUCH better than most of the rest of Europe. This could change, of course.
Ace, your relatives and other U.S. citizens will NOT have trouble getting back. Even the possible lockdowns in Germany and the Netherlands will not affect travel this time around, other than required tests and proofs of vaccination for most destinations in Europe. Your relatives will have to get a negative test just prior to returning, but that’s been a policy since January of this year.
Netherlands latest data points to something else happening besides just the ancestral Delta variant. 16,360 cases today, smashing (well, obliterating) the highest number of cases ever recorded in the Netherlands by nearly 4,000! Keep in mind, the Netherlands does NOT test as much as the UK, and for the most part only tests those who exhibit possible Covid symptoms. They don’t do asymptomatic tests, generally. Hospitalizations keep rising at a rapid pace – 28% increase this past week; 25% increase in ICU. This is after a 45% jump the week before. Keep in mind, the Netherlands has very strict criteria for persons admitted to hospital with Covid. Because of relatively low hospital capacity, the Dutch limit the numbers of hospitalized to those who with severe disease.
I believe the AY. sub-lineages are part of the problem. This has been underplayed thus far, which I don’t quite understand.
The only possible consolation is this: The coronavirus doesn’t appear to be spawning totally different variants that can compete with Delta, thus far. So instead Delta is having offspring that are more transmissible and possibly more severe. This does suggest to me that the coronavirus is `desperate,’ if you will, to find any way to continue to survive. There are only so many offspring that can do damage, given that vaccines still work relatively well against severe disease caused by Delta’s children, at least for a few months following a jab.
Joshua, just curious. To your knowledge, has there been any recent cases traced back to the Marathon?
Could that the outbreak at the Curley K-8 school in JP be traced back to trick-or-treaters on Halloween night?
Having said that, I haven’t heard of any spikes from any other schools in the state recently. Just that one JP school. Hmmmm.
Good question, and probably impossible to answer given the lack of comprehensive contact tracing and the sheer numbers of cases, even in a state like Massachusetts.
Outdoor transmission is certainly possible, though much less likely than indoors.
Uxbridge spiked and a couple of others. They would not make the news. The report is out from DESE for this past week either today or tomorrow am
Austria has been mulling the possibility of a lockdown for the unvaccinated, and this would last indefinitely – well, until they get vaccinated. I must say, I don’t know how this could work. I’m sure this would not fly in the U.S. Not only in red states, it wouldn’t be acceptable in blue states either. There’s the problem of identifying those who would be locked down. And, there’s the issue of explicit discrimination against an entire group based on vaccination status.
Agree. The same in my mind goes with only having unvaccinated kids in school wear masks. It is a great setup for bullying
Homeschooling is very rare across Europe. In fact, in many countries it’s prohibited. And, in many European countries remote learning is not only frowned upon it’s more or less prohibited by law, too.
In Germany, for example children are forced by a law from 1938 called “Reichsschulpflichtgesetz“ to attend in-person classes at school. This law was temporarily lifted from March 2020 until May 2020, but was reinstituted after that.
Of note is the year 1938. The Nazis were in power. So, this is effectively a Nazi law and therefore quite controversial.
Fools all. But I’ll just worry about here. Heaven knows we have enough on our plate
I’m not surprised that Finland allows homeschooling. My opinion is that we ….this country….has a perfect example in Finland of what works when it comes to education.
Pretty decent jump in cases for MA yesterday.
I think we are really in for it and I am disgusted in the loss
of efficacy with the vaccines over a relatively short time span.
The Netherlands data is most alarming and I understand a large percentage of new cases are break through. Nice thought. NOT!
The gray areas that exist when it comes to all the policy implications of Covid-19 are clear to me, and to you on WHW who contribute to this part of the blog. I wish they would be clear to more folks. Too often there’s an either/or mentality, a black or white perspective. From remote learning to lockdowns it’s very complex. There aren’t any easy solutions. I would have hoped that as a result of the pandemic we’d come together more as a nation, see this as a common fight. But we don’t. On either side of the divide we tend to demonize.
On a different topic, my biggest problem throughout the pandemic has been the misinformation and the often unwarranted optimism from experts and others who know better. Regarding the latter, Gottlieb tops my list. Not because he’s a bad guy. He’s not. But because he continually contributes to poor messaging by saying at almost every turn that the pandemic is nearly over. His latest pronouncement last Friday was just mind-boggling: He declared that by January the pandemic would be over. His words matter. I saw that many news outlets broadcast them.
Newspapers like the New York Times and others have also on occasion fell into the trap of prematurely declaring victory and then offering happy talk pieces. Even the Financial Times this week published a piece saying that cases in Britain would now inexorably be on the decline. I read it and thought, why would you publish this now? Today’s data from the UK further reinforce a stalling or plateau that has been reached at a very high level. Today’s numbers were around 42k. The 7-day average is at 38k. The NHS staff at trusts/hospitals are worn out, buckling under continuous pressure in certain regions of the country. It’s a time for vigilance, not saccharine articles.
Thank you Joshua. Your post are so important and meaningful.
I’m sorry. Allowing no choice and putting families in this position is unconscionable. A solution that didn’t stretch teachers and staff could have been found. We will never know how baby families have been impacted by this decision.
How many families not baby ….but these kids are babies 🙁
Post-booster which I got at about 10:15 a.m. yesterday..
Arm soreness was similar to the first two shots but peaked this morning and is on the wane.
I have had no other noticeable side effects. I have a slight headache today but it reminds me of the types of headaches I get from carrying too much muscle tension in my upper back and neck. Haha!
Great news.
From Boston globe. Seriously.
“ Massachusetts coronavirus case numbers have lurched upwards in recent days, in a worrisome development that experts say underlines the need for more people to get vaccinated and take precautions such as wearing masks in indoor public spaces.
Case numbers began rising from rock bottom levels in early July, hit a peak in mid-September, and then declined until early this month. But in the past week or so they began to rise again.”
While the vaccine doesn’t protect well against infection, at least not after several months, it does still protect well (~88-90%) against severe illness. And, so all these high-profile deaths from Covid-19 are tragic:
Thanks TK!
A short “hard” lockdown is now likely in the Netherlands and possibly Belgium, and perhaps a longer one in Germany. This would mean everything would close for 2 weeks in the Netherlands, except essential stores like supermarkets and pharmacies; a strict stay-at-home order would be in place.
The main reason this time, according to the government, is that hospitals in parts of the south of the country are overwhelmed and the situation is deteriorating. Note, the situation in the Netherlands is nowhere near as bad in terms of hospitalizations as, for instance, Florida and Mississippi this summer, or Idaho and Alaska. But, unlike those states it’s not accepting mass deaths as an option. Also keep in mind that the Dutch government is conservative. I would call it old-fashioned Republican in many ways: Low taxes, keep government intervention in business and people’s lives to a minimum, except when it comes to public health.
Joshua, how is Italy doing? My in-laws are there (US citizens) and have been since late Sept. visiting family and harvesting olives). They’re planning to return to the US just after Thanksgiving. Do you foresee them having difficulty getting back?
How special does them. Abruzzo area?? Or did I make that up? Prayers for their visit and safe return home.
Special for them not does. No idea where that came from
Ace, so far Italy has fared MUCH better than most of the rest of Europe. This could change, of course.
Ace, your relatives and other U.S. citizens will NOT have trouble getting back. Even the possible lockdowns in Germany and the Netherlands will not affect travel this time around, other than required tests and proofs of vaccination for most destinations in Europe. Your relatives will have to get a negative test just prior to returning, but that’s been a policy since January of this year.
Netherlands latest data points to something else happening besides just the ancestral Delta variant. 16,360 cases today, smashing (well, obliterating) the highest number of cases ever recorded in the Netherlands by nearly 4,000! Keep in mind, the Netherlands does NOT test as much as the UK, and for the most part only tests those who exhibit possible Covid symptoms. They don’t do asymptomatic tests, generally. Hospitalizations keep rising at a rapid pace – 28% increase this past week; 25% increase in ICU. This is after a 45% jump the week before. Keep in mind, the Netherlands has very strict criteria for persons admitted to hospital with Covid. Because of relatively low hospital capacity, the Dutch limit the numbers of hospitalized to those who with severe disease.
I believe the AY. sub-lineages are part of the problem. This has been underplayed thus far, which I don’t quite understand.
The only possible consolation is this: The coronavirus doesn’t appear to be spawning totally different variants that can compete with Delta, thus far. So instead Delta is having offspring that are more transmissible and possibly more severe. This does suggest to me that the coronavirus is `desperate,’ if you will, to find any way to continue to survive. There are only so many offspring that can do damage, given that vaccines still work relatively well against severe disease caused by Delta’s children, at least for a few months following a jab.
Joshua, just curious. To your knowledge, has there been any recent cases traced back to the Marathon?
Could that the outbreak at the Curley K-8 school in JP be traced back to trick-or-treaters on Halloween night?
Having said that, I haven’t heard of any spikes from any other schools in the state recently. Just that one JP school. Hmmmm.
Good question, and probably impossible to answer given the lack of comprehensive contact tracing and the sheer numbers of cases, even in a state like Massachusetts.
Outdoor transmission is certainly possible, though much less likely than indoors.
Uxbridge spiked and a couple of others. They would not make the news. The report is out from DESE for this past week either today or tomorrow am
Austria has been mulling the possibility of a lockdown for the unvaccinated, and this would last indefinitely – well, until they get vaccinated. I must say, I don’t know how this could work. I’m sure this would not fly in the U.S. Not only in red states, it wouldn’t be acceptable in blue states either. There’s the problem of identifying those who would be locked down. And, there’s the issue of explicit discrimination against an entire group based on vaccination status.
Agree. The same in my mind goes with only having unvaccinated kids in school wear masks. It is a great setup for bullying
Homeschooling is very rare across Europe. In fact, in many countries it’s prohibited. And, in many European countries remote learning is not only frowned upon it’s more or less prohibited by law, too.
In Germany, for example children are forced by a law from 1938 called “Reichsschulpflichtgesetz“ to attend in-person classes at school. This law was temporarily lifted from March 2020 until May 2020, but was reinstituted after that.
Of note is the year 1938. The Nazis were in power. So, this is effectively a Nazi law and therefore quite controversial.
Fools all. But I’ll just worry about here. Heaven knows we have enough on our plate
I’m not surprised that Finland allows homeschooling. My opinion is that we ….this country….has a perfect example in Finland of what works when it comes to education.
https://hslda.org/post/finland
Pretty decent jump in cases for MA yesterday.
I think we are really in for it and I am disgusted in the loss
of efficacy with the vaccines over a relatively short time span.
The Netherlands data is most alarming and I understand a large percentage of new cases are break through. Nice thought. NOT!
The gray areas that exist when it comes to all the policy implications of Covid-19 are clear to me, and to you on WHW who contribute to this part of the blog. I wish they would be clear to more folks. Too often there’s an either/or mentality, a black or white perspective. From remote learning to lockdowns it’s very complex. There aren’t any easy solutions. I would have hoped that as a result of the pandemic we’d come together more as a nation, see this as a common fight. But we don’t. On either side of the divide we tend to demonize.
On a different topic, my biggest problem throughout the pandemic has been the misinformation and the often unwarranted optimism from experts and others who know better. Regarding the latter, Gottlieb tops my list. Not because he’s a bad guy. He’s not. But because he continually contributes to poor messaging by saying at almost every turn that the pandemic is nearly over. His latest pronouncement last Friday was just mind-boggling: He declared that by January the pandemic would be over. His words matter. I saw that many news outlets broadcast them.
Newspapers like the New York Times and others have also on occasion fell into the trap of prematurely declaring victory and then offering happy talk pieces. Even the Financial Times this week published a piece saying that cases in Britain would now inexorably be on the decline. I read it and thought, why would you publish this now? Today’s data from the UK further reinforce a stalling or plateau that has been reached at a very high level. Today’s numbers were around 42k. The 7-day average is at 38k. The NHS staff at trusts/hospitals are worn out, buckling under continuous pressure in certain regions of the country. It’s a time for vigilance, not saccharine articles.
Thank you Joshua. Your post are so important and meaningful.
Framingham kindergarten Class to close six days
https://framinghamsource.com/index.php/2021/11/10/framingham-kindergarten-class-to-close-for-6-days-due-to-covid/
I’m sorry. Allowing no choice and putting families in this position is unconscionable. A solution that didn’t stretch teachers and staff could have been found. We will never know how baby families have been impacted by this decision.
https://framinghamsource.com/index.php/2021/11/10/framingham-kindergarten-class-to-close-for-6-days-due-to-covid/
Agree
How many families not baby ….but these kids are babies 🙁
Post-booster which I got at about 10:15 a.m. yesterday..
Arm soreness was similar to the first two shots but peaked this morning and is on the wane.
I have had no other noticeable side effects. I have a slight headache today but it reminds me of the types of headaches I get from carrying too much muscle tension in my upper back and neck. Haha!
Great news.
From Boston globe. Seriously.
“ Massachusetts coronavirus case numbers have lurched upwards in recent days, in a worrisome development that experts say underlines the need for more people to get vaccinated and take precautions such as wearing masks in indoor public spaces.
Case numbers began rising from rock bottom levels in early July, hit a peak in mid-September, and then declined until early this month. But in the past week or so they began to rise again.”
Does anyone know where Baker is?
Topol sees it coming
https://twitter.com/erictopol/status/1458940234679218203?s=21
While the vaccine doesn’t protect well against infection, at least not after several months, it does still protect well (~88-90%) against severe illness. And, so all these high-profile deaths from Covid-19 are tragic:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/11/11/san-francisco-officer-dies-covid-unvaccinated/?
https://www.mprnews.org/story/2021/11/10/covid-doctor-misinformation-minnesota-vadnais-heights
Pathetic, senseless deaths. WHY????????????????????????????
C-19 for 11-12 is ready.