Thursday November 11 2021 Forecast (7:44AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 11-15)

As we honor those who have served and continue to serve our country on this Veterans Day, the weather will cooperate nicely for parades and ceremonies as high pressure dominates with dry weather and seasonably cool air but with light wind. Things change in a hurry though after this. Clouds roll in tonight ahead of an approaching frontal boundary, occluding off as its mature parent low moves into the Great Lakes. This will result in a breezy, mild, humid Friday with widespread showers moving in from west to east and lasting up to several hours before moving out during the evening. The frontal boundary does have enough push to continue eastward offshore by early Saturday, and the large low pressure circulation it came from is expected to drift eastward across eastern Canada through the weekend into Monday lifting gradually to the northeast with time. Another disturbance rotating around it will pass through our region Saturday evening. After much of the day is dry, another period of rainfall lis likely in the evening. This will move out quickly, leaving us with a dry but breezy and cool day on Sunday. While the main influence of the old low pressure area’s circulation will have lifted far enough north so we don’t feel its wind anymore by Monday, an upper low associated with it will still have enough influence on the weather so that the next disturbance heading for NY and the St. Lawrence Valley will spawn a new low pressure area offshore Monday, and we can expected a cloudier and chilly day with the threat of some rainfall, although much of that may stay offshore. By Monday evening, enough cold air will be around so that if there are any lingering showers, they can be in the form of rain or snow – something to watch as the potential first flakes of the season for parts of the WHW area.

TODAY (VETERANS DAY): Sun and high clouds. Highs 51-58. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 41-48 evening, then slowly rising temperature overnight. Wind variable to SE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Increasing showers from scattered to widespread west to east during the morning continuing afternoon. Slight chance of thunder. Humid. Highs 57-64. Wind SE to S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts likely.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Breaking clouds. Rain showers ending west to east. Patchy fog. Lows 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy – most sun morning / least sun afternoon. Highs 51-58. Wind SW 5-15 MPH becoming variable then SE.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a period of rain evening. Breaking clouds but patchy fog overnight. Lows 41-48. Wind SE to variable 5-15 MPH becoming W.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 48-55. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly cloudy overnight. Lows 40-47. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain, may end as rain/mix/snow showers evening. Highs 42-49. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 16-20)

A west-to-east flow pattern will dominate the weather with a tendency for the mean trough position to be in eastern Canada, the Great Lakes, and Northeast. Current timing of surface features suggest dry/cool weather November 16-17, dry but milder weather November 18, a frontal system bringing a rain shower risk November 19, then windy/colder end of period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 21-25)

As we head toward Thanksgiving (November 25) the idea right now is for a fast-flowing pattern, west to northwest flow, limited precipitation chances and temperatures near to below normal. Will bring this important travel / holiday period into more focus as we get closer to it.

28 thoughts on “Thursday November 11 2021 Forecast (7:44AM)”

  12. A good reminder for model watchers as we head into the winter season….

    Tomer Burg
    @burgwx
    15h

    I’ll be repeatedly bringing this up, but this is a VERY important point.

    By grouping together snow and sleet, modeled snow totals near the mixed precip zone are sometimes way overdone.

    Positive snow depth change is also inconsistent across models (e.g. NAM low bias).

    4 Main Issues with NCEP Winter Wx Output:

    https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1458607594340339717?s=20

    1. Weather Weenie sites have NO CLUE about this.
      I have given up trying to correct them for the most part when I come across them…
      1) I don’t really visit them anymore.
      2) Nobody there cares about actual meteorology. They’d rather just trash us professionals and tell the weenie how much better they are than the pros. Disgusting.

      Repeat it here, often. Maybe somebody out there will see it…

    1. Thank you..
      Very similar outlook to mine, though I wasn’t as detailed for tomorrow. I’ll add more detail to tomorrow morning’s update for the day!

    1. Could get a little wild for a few hours tomorrow afternoon. Fortunately any spin ups should be brief and on the weak side.

      2. I have to be completely honest and that I can’t stand them using the term “spin-up” to sugarcoat the term “tornado” on the air. This is the opportunity to educate the public that not all tornadoes are giant, devastating wedges. “Spin-up” doesn’t accomplish that.

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