Friday November 12 2021 Forecast (7:30AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 12-16)

Many weather changes will be taking place during this 5-day period, which is not atypical at all for this part of the country at this time of the year. Specifically, we will be starting with a windy, warmer, and somewhat wild Friday, eventually wet for all areas. This is a system we have been eyeing and talking about for several days now and it is going to be behave pretty much as advertised. This is a good example of how when we first see a potential system many days in advance, we have to talk about it in very general terms. You may recall seeing on this blog back when November 12 was still about a week away the talk of having to watch for potential unsettled weather in the November 12-14 window of time. As we got closer and closer to these days we (meteorologists) were able to keep track of trends on our most reliable guidance, weed out guidance we thought might not be quite leading us in the right direction, watch trends in current weather across the hemisphere, and with those and other elements of our scientific method gradually start to bring this forecast into more focus. Well, finally we arrive at November 12, and definitely with an imminent weather event. Is this going to come close to matching the powerful storm of just over 2 weeks ago? Certainly not. But this system will be significant enough on its own as it will produce decent wind and some heavy rainfall as well. The event is the result of a frontal boundary that is pushing well ahead of its parent low, a low that is moving into the Great Lakes as a mature system (no longer strengthening). However the pressure gradient between it and offshore high pressure, and the frontal boundary which is channelling a good amount of moisture northward, are enough to create this event for us. Some areas started the day with a briefly colorful sunrise as sunlight made it through breaks in the clouds to the east and onto the bases of the advancing clouds from this system. That will make the “red sky in morning…” saying come true this time. The clouds are thickening up and we’ll see our first rain showers coming through the region this morning, mainly in scattered form, though any of them can be briefly heavy. As we reach midday and afternoon, a much more solid band of rain showers and potential embedded thunderstorms will cross the region from west to east, while the individual showers within it move more from south to north. Winds at the surface will already be moderate with stronger gusts, but just above us they will be blowing even stronger, and in this set-up you can have some of those winds be pulled down to ground level by heavier convective showers. So areas that see those carry the potential for damaging wind gusts above the sustained and more frequent gusts levels. As is often the case, the strongest winds will occur in coastal areas and higher elevations. There is also the remote potential in this set-up of a briefly rotating convective shower, whether it produces thunder or not, and sometimes those can result in short-lived, small tornadoes. It’s highly unlikely that any specific location will see one of these, but the risk being there, even if minimal, should be noted. With still many leaves on the trees that will be coming down in the rain and wind, we also need to watch for slippery roads from leaf coverage as well as flooding from blocked storm drains in roads and some parking lots. With the short daylight and early sunset, visibility of such hazards becomes rather difficult and will be this way through the afternoon / evening commute today, so use extra caution if you have to travel. Once we get to this evening, the band of widespread showers will be moving away to the east, lastly from Cape Cod, and we will end up with a better late evening and overnight as winds settle and it starts to dry out. But as we get to the weekend and even early next week we will not be completely done with this low pressure system. Its broad circulation will be moving across eastern Canada, along with its associated upper level low. A low pressure disturbance rotating around this larger system will approach us on Saturday, and while we get through most of the daylight hours rain-free, a short-lived by potent episode of rain and even possible thunder will cross the region from southwest to northeast later in the day through early evening. This may be accompanied by gusty winds too, and will make conditions seem like the ones we will see later today, but for a much shorter period of time. By later evening, it’s gone, and we’re turning drier and cooler. This sets up a dry, breezy, and seasonably chilly Sunday, but when we get to Sunday night and Monday, yet again another disturbance will be racing around the larger low pressure circulation and heading for our area. This one will spawn a surface low offshore which will pass southeast of New England on Monday, but close enough to turn our wind northeast and bring some precipitation to us Sunday night and part of Monday. It will be cold enough so that there may be some wet snow mixing in with any rain that falls mainly over interior higher elevation locations. This will not be an accumulating snow event, but a reminder of what season we are heading toward. When we get to Tuesday, we’ll be in a drier but chilly northwesterly air flow between departing low pressure to the east and high pressure approaching from the west.

TODAY: Cloudy. Scattered rain showers and embedded downpours this morning. Widespread rain showers, embedded downpours and possible thunder this afternoon. Humid. Highs 58-65. Wind SE 10-20 MPH with gusts 30-40 MPH and isolated to scattered gusts above 40 MPH.

TONIGHT: Breaking clouds. Rain showers ending west to east. Patchy fog. Lows 46-53. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy – most sun morning / least sun afternoon. Highs 53-60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH becoming variable then SE.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with widespread rain showers and a possible thunderstorm early evening from west to east. Breaking clouds late evening, clearing overnight. Lows 41-48. Wind SE to variable 5-15 MPH becoming W with higher gusts overnight.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 48-55. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Possible rain late evening and overnight which may mix with snow in interior higher elevations. Lows 35-42. Wind variable becoming N to NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain and drizzle favoring eastern areas morning and midday. Highs 42-49. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 30-37. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 17-21)

The overall larger scale pattern is expected to feature west-to-east flow. For this region expect dry weather with a temperature moderation November 17-18, a frontal system coming through around November 19 with briefly unsettled weather then a return to dry but cooler weather after that for the November 20-21 weekend.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 22-26)

This is Thanksgiving week (Thanksgiving being November 25). The overall idea continues to be for a generally west-to-east flow pattern. An unsettled weather system would likely be passing through early in the week, followed by fair briefly colder weather, then some moderation, but possibly another likely minor system by the end of the period, which is low confidence as it becomes nearly impossible to time weather systems this far in advance. The overall take-away is that it doesn’t look all that stormy for this important travel / holiday period at this time.

89 thoughts on “Friday November 12 2021 Forecast (7:30AM)”

  7. Thanks TK, great discussion!

    Pretty interesting stretch of weather over the next 36 hours. I definitely see the potential for some gusts to 40 mph this afternoon, with some stronger convective gusts. Probably going to see scattered power outages, though nothing on the level of the big October storm.

    Tomorrow is a classic squall setup, the best I can recall in awhile. Don’t be surprised if things get pretty wild for a brief time during the afternoon/evening. Thunder, mixed precip (hail/graupel), and brief strong (40mph+) winds are all possible as that very potent shortwave moves through. Best chances look to be the further west you go.

    It’s not “official” yet, but radar data all but confirms a (weak/brief) tornado touched down outside of Binghamton, NY a little earlier this morning. A tornado debris signature was present.

  12. Thank you, TK.

    50 at present with a low of 42 overnight. Looks to be a perfect day for my first pajama day of the colder seasons.

  13. I love the feel of today. Higher DP but not high enough to make it feel a bit warmer but not uncomfortable. Wind fairly steady in the low teens and gusting up to higher teens. I do love the sound of wind.

  14. Just took a walk with a short sleeve jersey and jeans. Very comfortable. Sitting in CVS parking lot in Brookline waiting for my booster.

  16. Thanks, TK

    Thinking of you, JPD and SSK. Good luck with your booster shots.

    High school has a home football game today at 5 v. Stoughton. I was told we’re on rain or shine. I just told Coach that we may have to delay the start of it because of sidewards rains, strong wind gusts and, maybe, a thunderboomer. Wonder if the power will stay on. No power, no field lights, no game.

    At least it will probably be a running game and it will keep the clock moving. Maybe I will get home a little earlier!

  17. To add to TK’s initial point about the forecast for this storm – The signals for a heavy rain event this weekend have been present for a while. The one model that sticks out the most is the GFS from 00z 11/3. It had this exact setup right, but it had widespread 8-11 inches of rain here for November 14-15. Obviously, the timing was off, as was the magnitude of the rain, but it had the general idea 9 days in advance.

  21. Is that the front line of rain now entering western mass? It doesn’t look as daunting as the projections on radar appear. Will it intensify over the next few hours?

  22. I think some elevated area or maybe even a location like Lincoln NH or North Conway, NH has a shot at a quick (30 min – 1 hr) period of heavy, wet snow tomorrow evening. Enough to coat the ground to maybe an inch or 2.

    If this disturbance tomorrow night been another 50-100 miles further south and had it some colder weather preceding it ……..

  23. Thanks, TK.

    All good things must come to an end, as the weather changes from magnificent to stormy.

    And, my old jalopy may be nearing its end. Catalytic converter is broken. Big expense. Would buy a new or used vehicle but the problem is used and new cars are way too expensive for me. I don’t know how people can afford them, without having to make big monthly payments for years (which I definitely don’t want to do, given all the other monthly crap in terms of bills, like healthcare insurance). Also, I don’t drive enough to make it worth it to buy a new or used car.

    4. Used cars are a rip off. If the rest of your car is in good condition you might want to consider a new converter if you can locate one.

  24. SSK/Dave, my Wife and I got our boosters on 10/30 and our 20 yr old daughter got hers this week. Same side effects as the second shot but our primary care told us we could take Tylenol and for the 24-36 hours that we had them, that helped a lot. Side effects for us started 12-16 hours after the shot.

    3. Hi North. Did you have pfeizer? I’m curious to know if the moderna booster being less strength will have the same symptoms. Mine were fairly strong after second vaccine. But nothing I can’t handle.

      1. Yes, we got Pfizer this time and last. My parents had moderns the first go around and Pfizer for the booster. My afar had side effects with Moderna but nothing with Pfizer.

  25. I was chatting it up with my nurse & she said the booster is only half a dose compared to second shot

      1. Pfeizer is not lower dose so is a third vaccine. But pfeizer was lower dose than moderna for first two. Moderna is less strength than first two so it is a booster. You can request a full strength moderna with your doctors recommendation is you are compromised.

    3. True for Moderna.

      I had an achy arm, but that was pretty much all. I think it helps to drink a lot of water for a couple of days afterwards (and before, for that matter).

    1. Well that is interesting. My Storm relative velocity display does not appear to be working correctly both on Radar Scope
      and weather underground boston Nexrad.

      What’s up.

  29. Pouring in Boston . I’ll hit the roof if I’m late for my 5:30 buzz cut as the ride home is going to be brutal .

  30. SPC highlighting Buzzards Bay, Martha´s Vineyard and upper and mid Cape Cod for mini supercells and possible brief tornado/wind damage next 1-2 hrs

    2. It’s wild here right now in Middleboro, not that far from Buzzards Bay! Stadium lights are on and it’s Game Day. Should be an interesting next couple of hours. Fortunately I announce from a booth, but it will be a wet walk from the parking lot to the stadium!

      2. Awww, love that you are the announcer! I often spot for our announcers and love doing it. Wishing you the best tonight. We moved our game to last night to avoid the weather.

  31. Wind gust of 52 mph at Logan. 72 mph at Blue Hill. Not too shabby. Pretty good number of power outage reports coming in now.

    Turned into a beautiful afternoon down here!

    1. Yikes. Our lights just flickered. Not typical of here. Apparently, trees are down from speen Street to rt 27 in framingham, natick area. Route 9 is flooding. Nothing new there

  32. Thank goodness the low level jet is running 50 knots or so and not stronger.

    The heavy rain seems to be doing a good job mixing some of that to the ground. Fairly impressive gusts.

  35. Here comes the special marine warnings in and around Buzzards Bay for storms capable of producing waterspouts. (radar indicated)

  36. We got just over an inch in Lunenburg. Now the sun is peeking through the clouds – it is really beautiful!

      1. My total = 0.00 inches. Why? Beats the crap out of me.
        I checked the rain gauge and nothing is blocking it. The funnel is clear. There must be something jamming the tipping bucket. I’ll have to take it apart to see for sure. A squirrel probably dropped an acorn down the funnel and it now has the bucket permanently tipped or something along those lines. Unless the damn thing just completely crapped out on me. Everything else is working. Go figure

  37. Really interesting to see how in October we had comparatively few rainy days, and yet when we got rain we got a lot and for the month wound up just above average. This month we may be seeing something similar. It’s been very dry until today, but today the heavens opened up at times giving us over an inch here in Boston thus far, with more on the way tomorrow night. But looking ahead I also see lots of dry days. I’m fine with this kind of weather. Plenty of precipitation, but also a lot of dry days.

  41. Last couple runs, the GFS has lost its marbles on the pattern. IMO, not very good representations of what will actually be happening, especially beyond day 7. I suspect it will come “back to earth” within a few runs.

    Also keep an eye on the ECMWF for its old-fashion over amped habits returning.

  42. That impulse that comes through tomorrow evening may be surprisingly potent to those not expecting it…

  43. The most recent rain events have come with very strong, potentially damaging winds and tomorrow will be no different, albeit very brief.

    I wonder if this upcoming winter will feature many rain/snow events accompanied with strong winds as opposed to relatively gentle winds. Perhaps any snow events will tend to be more “blizzard-like” then recent years? Not necessarily tons of snow at once.

    With all that said, I get the impression Monday’s rain will have gentle breezes, if any?

    TK – Technically, a “blizzard” has nothing to do with specific amounts, correct?

    1. Blizzard technical definition has to do with falling and or blowing snow enough to reduce visibility over at least 3 hours. There used to be temperature criteria in that it had to be under 20F, but the NWS abandoned that. That is correct, snowfall amounts have nothing to do with it. You technically can have a blizzard with a completely clear sky. It’s happened, especially in flatlands, like plains and prairies.

      As for this winter… Being La Nina, the subtropical jet will probably be absent much of the time leading to a lower frequency of the super powerful lows (the bombs). But we can still get an active Pacific jet a little further north.

  45. Tomorrow’s disturbance has the potential to produce heavy rain, hail, lightning & thunder, and minor snow accumulation in parts of SNE (not everywhere for the snow), and just over a couple hour’s worth of time.

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