Sunday November 14 2021 Forecast (7:49AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 14-18)

We’re not done with that low pressure circulation yet. Its initial arrival, coming after the third longest dry stretch of the year, has put us into a stretch of unsettled weather which started with a wet and windy Friday, featured a vigorous disturbance with more wind, thunderstorms, and even snowflakes in some areas on the back side of it on Saturday evening, and while much of today will be fairly nice, though breezy and cool, we will see clouds moving in later in advance of the next disturbance being influenced by the original low. This will be one moving east northeastward toward New England from the Ohio Valley and will spawn a weak secondary low. This will pass just southeast of our region tonight and early Monday, bringing a minor precipitation event, mainly rain, though a few snowflakes may mix in over interior higher elevations mainly pre-dawn of Monday. After this exits, we will dry out for the remainder of Monday right into the middle of the coming week. A period of breezy and chilly weather can be expected from Monday through Tuesday as low pressure moves away to the east and high pressure approaches from the west, along with near to below normal temperatures. As high pressure moves over the region Tuesday night and Wednesday, we set up what may be the coldest morning of the season so far on Wednesday, when Boston’s Logan Airport may go below freezing for the first time, or at least get to the freezing point, while areas away from the city are all generally in the 20s. This day also has the potential to have a “big diurnal”, or a large spread between morning lows and afternoon highs when we start to see milder air arrive with a quiet warm front passage as high pressure starts to move off to the east. This will lead to a warmer than normal and breezy day for Thursday, ahead of an approaching cold front, which at this point looks like it will be slow enough to allow dry weather for Thursday’s daylight before bringing nighttime rain showers.

TODAY: Sunny start, mostly cloudy finish. Highs 48-55. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Overnight periods of rain that may mix with snow in interior higher elevations. Lows 36-43. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy start with early morning rain/drizzle possible in eastern coastal areas, then partly sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 30-37. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 41-48. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 24-29 except 30-35 urban centers and immediate shoreline. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers at night. Highs 58-65. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 19-23)

A cold front moves through and offshore in the early hours of November 19 with a rain shower threat, and may have to watch for a rain/snow mix briefly interior higher elevations if the moisture hangs around after the front’s passage. Remainder of November 19 to feature dry, breezy, chilly weather. November 20 should feature fair but cool weather with high pressure moving in. Next low pressure system is expected to track north of New England later November 21 through November 22. This track would bring a warm front through the region November 21 with some clouds and milder air arriving, then a cold front through on November 22 with a rain shower threat and a shift back to cooler but dry weather by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 24-28)

Staying with the idea of a less threatening pattern in terms of storminess. We’ll deal with one or two northern stream systems in a fairly fast flow with a lot of up and down in the temperature department, but overall, the weather for travel and other holiday activity for Thanksgiving (November 25 and the days around it is not looking all that bad. Timing and details will be brought into focus as we get closer to these days…

72 thoughts on “Sunday November 14 2021 Forecast (7:49AM)”

  1. Thanks TK.

    Good to have nice travel weather for Thanksgiving. I hope it extends for Black Friday shopping as well.

    1. We’ll see how it goes. I think Black Friday itself, regardless of weather, will probably be on the quieter side of average at the stores themselves, not because people are afraid of being there, but because so many outlets have had Black Friday deals for a few weeks now (mostly online, some in-store) and so many people started their holiday prep earlier than ever this year. “Black Friday” seems to be transitioning to “Black Autumn”.

        1. Last year was the only year I can remember that I didn’t visit a mall or major shopping center during the holiday season.

  3. This morning I saw Eric promote his new book “Mighty Storms of New England”. I hope I have the name correctly.

    Can it be purchased at any bookstore? Can it be ordered online somewhere?

  7. Thank you, TK. I did hear from my cousin that her daughter and family on Long Island are fine. Nasty mess there

  8. Why am I getting the feeling that the advertised colder and stormier end of the month is NOT about to happen???????

    btw,

    Ocean temp: 54.32
    Average: 49.96
    Departure: + 4.36

    Not what you want to see heading into Winter.

  13. Thanks TK !

    I´m in agreement with JpDave above regarding trends for perhaps a front-loaded winter.

    Unless we get a sudden SST event or a big tropical system in the western Pacific to become a strong high latitude extra-tropical system to change the pattern.

    Also, as JpDave points out, the eastern seaboard Atlantic Ocean north of the outer Banks is, relatively speaking, really, really warm. I´d have to think this offers support for a trof to be further west in the Great Lakes and some kind of ridging to be present all the east Coast of the US.

  14. Thanks TK.

    Regarding the cold, to me it still looks like we’re on track for a generally below normal stretch of temperatures later this month into early next month. However, like TK, I’m not seeing much in the way of storminess. The MJO is proving to be a big factor here and has consistently been trending less favorable for storminess.

    In a La Nina winter, the clock is your enemy in terms of cold and snow. You’d typically expect to see winter front loaded if you’re going to approach normal snowfall values, as the odds favor an early shutoff to sustained winter weather by later Feb/March as Southeast ridging becomes dominant. It remains extremely early in the season, but something to keep in mind especially heading into the first half of next month.

    It is definitely possible the Atlantic SSTs will be remembered as the main story this winter. If nothing else, the current state of the Atlantic is a fascinating preview of the future of our planet.

    2. the current state of the Atlantic is a fascinating preview of the future of our planet.

      This is a frightening thought. I mean, it really is.

    1. Most of the nation outside of NE still hates the Patriots, because they hate BB. Now everybody loves Brady since he is no longer under BB.

      Personally, I still like Brady and would love to see him win yet another SB as long as it’s not against the Patriots of course.

    3. I listen to the game while outside doing yard work. Love the radio guys! Biased, but they are supposed to be! They still call it like it is. Zolak has no problem telling us when the Pats are doing a BAD job. He was a happy camper today. 😉

      While I was out there I managed to pack 6 full-sized barrels jammed full with leaves and now my yard cleanup is 90% done, with just touch-up left for next week. 🙂

    1. It literally kicked my ass Joshua. I’m not 100% better but I’m a lot better . I’m still trying to figure out how I never had a reaction like that with 2 full doses of moderna , but with a half dose I get completely clobbered. Thanks for asking .

      1. It’s good to hear that you are feeling better. I will also be getting the Moderna booster this Wednesday after having two earlier doses, just like you. We’ll see how it goes.

        I suppose that the intense reaction could be an indication that your immune system was ready to jump into action as a result of the two earlier doses.

        2. I think you are right about a sign the immune system is working. I thought that with my second. How did you do in your first two? I wish you well on your booster.

  24. Mark, thanks for sharing the Tweets, especially Ryan’s write-up. He’s very good at explaining things and has a good tell-it-like-it-is, scientific approach. This is what we need more of in the meteorological community.

    I am so tired of seeing hyped headlines this week. AccuWeather put out 2 DOOZIES that would have had you thinking we’d be digging out of a blizzard tomorrow while we froze from an arctic outbreak. 😉

  26. Mark, I echo what TK said – thanks for your tweets. Always like seeing them.

    Today had a definite November feel and look to it. I liked it, but I know it’s not everyone’s cup of tea.

  27. Cam Newton is back, and he didn’t waste time scoring. A touchdown run and a TD pass. After the run, he took off his helmet in the end zone and said “I’m baaack.” The refs penalized that; calling it unsportsmanlike conduct. I must say I’ve seen far worse stuff happen in the end zone that doesn’t get penalized.

  29. Yesterday: “I love the low angle sun at this time of year. It makes for some great photos.” -TK (to a friend)

    Today: “I love the low angle sun at this time of year. It makes for some amazing sunrises and sunsets.” – Pete Bouchard (on his TV weathercast)

    HAHAHAHA!!! Almost exactly the same…

  33. One wonders how many tornadoes we would have confirmed in the November 1971 outbreak with today’s radar, population, and if everyone had a video camera at their fingertips…

    There were FIVE confirmed in MA & ME on 11-7-1971.

    1. I suspect people knew when their property was destroyed and as such town heads knew even without a video camera. Either way, we can no longer deny storms and weather in general is trying to tell us we are in trouble

  34. There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that the higher tornado numbers are here to stay. This year has definitely been on the extreme side across the Northeast and mid-Atlantic, and they won’t all be this active. But yesterday is a great example of how much our detection capabilities have improved.

    I think this is great for the science. I’m actually really heartened to see how many tornadoes have been confirmed. I lost count of the number of separate TDS’s I saw yesterday, but the number that have been confirmed so far definitely gets us close. It’s great that NWS offices are going out and confirming all of these. Even though in many cases the impacts are comparable to straight line wind events, we shouldn’t just be burying our heads in the sand when we have every capability to determine which of these wind events are actually tornadoes.

    However, in terms of linking the recent uptrend in the raw number of tornadoes to long term trends, that’s a slippery slope, similar to named tropical systems. You simply can’t compare the ~post-2010 era to anything previous in these regards. The science has totally changed (for the better!) in the past 10 years or so. For tornado trends, I’d stick to strong (EF2+) events if looking for anything climatically meaningful…

    1. just like we should stop using analogs of anything before 2000. there is just nothing that matches the state of our oceans these days.

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