Monday November 15 2021 Forecast (7:36AM)

45 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 15-19)

Our reputation as a place the weather changes a lot will be supported by this week’s pattern. A recently-formed wave of low pressure offshore is moving away after bringing some overnight rainfall, and the original disturbance that kicked off this low still has to come through here later so we’ll have the early return to sun followed by more clouds, and maybe a shower, but in general it will be a mostly dry and cool day today. Tuesday’s weather will be dry but chilly between low pressure departing to the east and high pressure approaching from the west. This high pressure area will drift off to the southeast rather quickly and a warm front will pass through the region without much fanfare, just some clouds, during Wednesday. This will set up a short-lived by noticeable burst of unseasonably mild weather for Thursday, ahead of an approaching cold front. That front will bring clouds in later Thursday and a band of rainfall through the region at night. This may end as a mix especially over interior higher elevations around dawn on Friday as it turns colder, and then the remainder of Friday will be a breezy and chilly day with a cloud/sun mix and maybe an additional rain shower or even higher elevation rain/snow shower as a disturbance crosses the region as colder air continues to flow in behind the now-offshore front.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. A rain shower possible this afternoon, may be mixed with graupel or wet snowflakes. Highs 43-50. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 30-37. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 41-48. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 24-29 except 30-35 urban centers and immediate shoreline. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain arriving evening, may end as a rain/snow mix interior higher elevations before dawn. Lows 35-42. Wind SW shifting to NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. A possible rain shower, maybe mixed with snow interior higher elevations. Highs 42-49. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 20-24)

High pressure brings fair, cool weather November 20. Low pressure passes north of the region November 21 with a warm front moving through and producing some clouds but most precipitation may stay to our north. A cold front should move through November 22 with some rain shower activity. Will have to watch for an additional low pressure wave on that front to prolong clouds and possibly rainfall, but the overall trend should be for dry and chilly weather by November 23 and slight moderation by November 24 as a west-to-east flow remains dominant. No big issues expected for pre-holiday travel at this time.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 25-29)

Despite some model flip-flopping again, staying with the idea of a continued dominant west-to-east flow pattern. One or two passing systems would bring our precipitation threats with temperature fluctuations and overall temperatures averaging near to slightly below normal.

45 thoughts on “Monday November 15 2021 Forecast (7:36AM)”

  9. Question. If a tornado’s classification of F-0 maxes out at 72, is that 72 more severe than a gust of 72? I hope that makes sense.

    1. Well, the only thing I would say is that a gust is just that
      a momentary speed of 72 mph where the wind would die down after the gust. With a tornado with wind speed 72, that would be a constant speed of 72 give or take. Given that, I would venture to say that the EF-0 tornado would be more severe than a gust of 72. Not that it would add much, but there is the forward speed of the tornado combined with the 72.

      Hope my response makes sense.

    1. It’ll probably be too dry, but what’s more important is that they probably go below 32 for the first time that morning.

      (You can get frost with lows above 32 anyway.)

  11. Nothing like a bombing low or one heck of an inverted trof, to be not that far away and throw no precip into southern New England.

    Thanks 12z GFS ……..

      1. That’s not the classic inverted trough setup anyway. It’s a “mobile trough” moving very rapidly around the low on that model run.

    1. so, both models indicate some kind of stormy potential around that date.

      we´ll have to keep watching. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    2. Blizzard in Virginia Beach and raining from Buffalo to southern Quebec. That might happen!

      That said the models have on and off been keying in on a larger coastal system early Thanksgiving week. Still 7 days off but definitely a watch period.

  13. Today’s 12z Op Runs…

    ECMWF: OTL. Classic over-amp bias.
    GFS: Eh. It seems to have an emerging cooler season bias of trying to be very creatively unrealistic.
    (“Ohhhh Canadaaaaaa!”) Canadian: A slightly better grasp than the other 2.

    Will keep an eye on the trends.

    Of course weatherweenie land is already treating the system on those runs like it’s January. That’s a big mistake. 😉

    Winter comes AFTER autumn. 😉

  16. Regarding the tornado wind speed discussion…
    There’s kind of a fuzzy area there.

    Tornadoes are so unstable that there really is no constant wind speed, and in most cases they go by any given point so quickly, the peak wind acts more like a gust than a sustained wind, especially the vast majority of our small and fast-moving mini tornadoes.

    The peak wind of 72 MPH would be far more like a gust to 72 rather than sustained at 72, because it probably took place in under 5 or 10 seconds before dropping significantly.

    1. Thank you. I see what you are saying.

      Are you then implying that the gust to 72 would be more severe
      than the EF-0 tornado with top winds of 72?

      1. I think they would be generally the same until you apply specifics like duration, location, situation (trees, no trees, what type of structure in path, etc.). It’s very hard to just say more severe or less severe in a definitive way with weather conditions, especially wind, as it can be so variable and momentary.

    2. Thank you. I was curious as I don’t see a number of trees down in one specific area with gusts…..or a path.

      Westerly damage was minimal and stopped about a mile…straight on….from my son’s first wife’s homes where his son was also.

    1. The approach is to go with damage as the first way to estimate it, but when you have many short-lived events like the ones we get around here the tendency is to go a little more with wind, especially since we can measure the wind better in the weaker tornadoes. When we get into the higher end events, the focus becomes more on damage, when possible.

        1. Not very easily. In some cases it just comes down to radar estimates unless the circulation happened to go directly over a wind instrument that did not suffer damage.

  19. The mountains of VT finally getting a good early season injection from Mother Nature. Killington, Sugarbush, Bromley and Stratton all reporting 6″ of new snow and still coming down good. Looks like some good upslope snow is happening, perhaps fueled by some lakes moisture.

    Stratton summit cam:
    https://youtu.be/3B_ODJiExKU

    Sugarbush summit cam:
    https://youtu.be/owR1-eG2_xA

    The summit of Stratton looks like an all out blizzard, lol.

    2. Either a massive gust of wind came in or someone has cleared the board at the Sugarbush summit stake….went from a half a foot of snow to nothing since I looked at it last hour….

      (yes I am salivating and looking at these cams continuously!)

  20. Remember this? 3 years ago today on Nov. 15th, 2018. I had 8.5″ of snow in Coventry before the precip ended as sleet/rain. Ended up being our second biggest storm that winter!

    Ben Noll
    @BenNollWeather
    4h

    This day in weather history…

    Mantelpiece clock 3 years ago today, the Northeast got hammered by an early season nor’easter whose intense snow rates snarled traffic during the evening rush and contributed to thousands of wrecks around and north of NYC

    …a trip down memory lane

    https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1460343374926344194?s=20

      1. This is La Nina. But that’s only ONE component. And also a forecast does not guarantee anything since it’s just a forecast. 🙂

      1. All over-done with low strength at that point, but general idea at least is starting to be recognized by all 3 of them. It evolves quickly and doesn’t hang around all that long though.

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