Tuesday November 16 2021 Forecast (7:15AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 16-20)

Our overall weather pattern will feature a west to east flow the next 5 days. But the fairly zonal pattern does not mean we’ll be without weather changes. No systems hang around long, so there are plenty of changes to be had. We start with a bright but blustery and chilly day today as a fresh westerly breeze blows between low pressure in eastern Canada and high pressure approaching from the Great Lakes. The wind will drop off as the high pressure center moves over our area tonight, but this will set up a fairly cold night due to radiational cooling, a process in which a clear sky and light wind allows temperatures to fall rapidly. This could be the night that Logan Airport reaches or drops below 32 for the first time. This can be made more difficult if the breeze stays too strong for too long, or a component of the wind blows over some of the water that around the airport before reaching the temperature sensor. So it’s not abnormal to have pretty much every area having dropped to at least several degrees lower than what the airport reading will be. This is yet another example of why Boston’s reported official temperature from the airport is not always representative of the rest of the city and its immediate surroundings. Anyway, 32 or not at Logan, a chilly night is ahead followed by a decent rebound Wednesday after the cold start. We will not see the day stay as bright Wednesday as it will be today though, because an approaching warm front will help to generate a fair amount of high and some mid level clouds. Precipitation is not going to occur in our region with this warm frontal passage, however, with any of that staying to our north in northern New England and southern Canada, closer to the warm front’s parent low. What will happen is a spike of unseasonably warm weather for Thursday ahead of the low’s approaching cold front. It appears that we’ll get through the daylight hours with a fair amount of sun before clouds eventually increase, but not before temperatures soar to the 60s throughout the region. The cold front will march through the region from west to east Thursday night and early Friday with a fairly solid band of rain showers accompanying it. Current indications are that the precipitation along the front will exit before nearly enough cold air arrives to end it as a mix or snow anywhere in our region. But the daytime hours of Friday will see the temperature turn out about 20 degrees colder than Thursday was, as any attempted diurnal warming is thwarted by strong cold air advection behind the cold front. This will come along with a fair amount of wind too. Cold air aloft will also help trigger some clouds which may produce a rain or snow shower in a few locations, though that will be a minor threat with no real impact of any kind. High pressure moves in with fair weather Saturday, starting cold but feeling nicer than Friday as while we’ll be cool during the day, it will be with much less wind.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 41-48. Wind W 10-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 24-29 except 30-35 urban centers and immediate shoreline. Wind W diminishing to under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny start, then variably cloudy. Highs 50-57. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly clear with patchy ground fog overnight. Lows 42-49. Wind S to SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny morning. Increasing clouds afternoon. Highs 62-69. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Widespread rain showers arriving west to east evening, ending west to east overnight. Lows 37-44. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW, higher gusts possible.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloudy mix. Chance of a passing rain and/or snow shower. Highs 45-52 in the morning, falling through the 40s during the afternoon. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clear overnight. Lows 23-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts evening, diminishing overnight.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind NW up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 21-25)

This period, from the end of the coming weekend (November 21) to Thanksgiving Day (November 25) is a busy period of time for errands and travel both locally as well as into and out of the region, so it’s always heavily dependent on weather, and we will have a storm threat in here. The transition begins Sunday (Nov 21) as we have a warm front cross the region with some cloudiness but only a minor threat of any light rainfall occurring. The parent low of this front, like its predecessor, is expected to move from the Great Lakes into eastern Canada, and a trailing cold front arrives Monday with a band of rain showers along it. What we will be seeing is at upper levels a trough of low pressure will become more amplified in the eastern US so that a new low pressure area develops along that frontal boundary. Right now, it looks like this will take place late Monday into Tuesday (Nov 22-23) but with us on the milder side of the low, with a rain and wind event for the WHW forecast area to start out, and then once the frontal boundary is pulled offshore we see stronger cold advection along with wind, but with the main precipitation gone, leaving us with rain and snow showers – exact timing and details on these 2 days TBD. Enough overall west to east flow in the atmosphere should help to push this system away from the region with more tranquil weather returning for the middle of next week Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day, but we’re looking pretty far ahead here so there can always be some adjustment needed to that part of the outlook.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 26-30)

Earliest indications for the final days of November are for a bit more of an active pattern with a couple of rain and even potential snow threats materializing. Don’t panic in thinking we suddenly go into full fledged winter mode here. We won’t be quite there yet, but it’s also not impossible that some of us may need to reach for our shovels for the first time. If I had to summarize the last 5 days of November in terms of precipitation, near to above normal, and temperature, near to below normal.

37 thoughts on “Tuesday November 16 2021 Forecast (7:15AM)”

      1. I hear you ….

        Don’t remember a ton either. I do seem to recall ….

        La neige (snow)

        le soleil (sun)

        il fait chaud (its warm or hot)

        il pleut (rain)

        just the weather stuff, lol and thats assuming the stuff above is correct, lol.

  5. Thank you, TK. Good discussion.

    I agree Logan is not a good representation of Boston. I understand why many sensors are at airports. However, I don’t understand why that sensor has to be the one used as representative of the city.

    1. It is INSANE that Logan is used to represent Boston meteorologically. Makes utterly NO SENSE at all.
      Pure STUPIDITY. Keep all of the sensors for airport business, but
      have the City weather records kept somewhere else, like
      say the Boston Common or the Public Garden or even Copley Square, but NOT the damn airport. NOT NOT NOT!!!

      End of this morning’s rant….

    2. Logan has represented Boston since 1936, and they are a very poor representative indeed, even in the summer. Don’t get me started on a rant. 😉

  9. On our side of the hemisphere, there is some very cold air building in Alaska, with interior Alaska running 15 to 25F below zero this morning.

            1. see the time period right around Thanksgiving on today’s 12z GFS (11/23 through 11/27). In fact, one of the lows get suppressed just south of us for some potential wintery weather in the northeast.

              Stay tuned. 🙂

              1. Was it the GFS SAK said saw the big event last week ahead…..needed fine tuning but I think that is what he said

                1. The GFS sniffed out the storminess first if I recall correctly. The fine tuning phase is in full swing now. 🙂 There will be a storm. I think Tom’s idea above of the blocking making the storm hesitate is probably correct with it happening further to the east (and not for too long). Could that be a reflection of future events? Yes, since it’s taking place in a pattern that may be around for some of the winter. Will need further investigation of course. I will begin the writing of my winter forecast on Thursday with hopes to publish this weekend. 🙂

  11. 12z global model review (the big 3)…

    European: Not great. Over-amped. Did I mention how much this model sucks? It’s literally reaching the scum at the bottom of the pool level now. I hope they have plans to address the issue. I wish I knew what was done to make it take this dive. Obviously a tweak that was not needed.

    US & Canadian models: A better idea now of how next week likely plays out. (See my discussion above for further info).

    1. In other words, instead of a historic Thanksgiving week blizzard, we’re going to get (more or less) a routine cold frontal passage? 😉

      1. Well, mostly … We do have to watch for some kind of fairly quickly intensifying low, but it likely takes place north or east of here, or maybe even starts its process as it passes by.

        But I don’t think we’re in for something that wraps up like crazy especially south of us.

        That set of runs (maybe 3 cycles) a few days ago was just kind of bizarre to me. And what was odd was that all the models went there, then went away from it, but I feel that the ECMWF never really corrected properly. Time will tell, right? 😉

    1. I watched it. Not really much to take away from it in terms of what this winter may be like. They could have played last year’s version – it was essentially exactly the same.
      There were only 2 elements of actual prediction in it…
      1) Just over 50 inches of snow for Boston. I’ve never seen him forecast below normal snow for Boston. 😉
      2) The harshest month would most likely be February (brave forecast and the only one to go for that of all forecasts I’ve seen so far).
      Curiously, there was zero mention of La Nina. The focus was 90% on whether or not the PV would be disrupted and a brief hint that the coldest air would likely end up west of New England. There was a brief mention of “other factors” (QBO, AO, etc) but no explanation of what any of them are.

    1. Regarding the AccuWeather hype from a few days ago (about the Sunday night system) I had a couple people ask me what happened to the snowstorm we were supposed to get.

      Yes, it may be ignorance on the part of the reader in many cases, but some of that is being fueled by the use of these tactics. I’ll continue to call them out all over social media.

  15. Logan is s total joke!!!
    Best I can tell they buttomed out at 35, unless they touched 34 between obs

    Down to 28 in JP

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