Wednesday November 17 2021 Forecast (7:43AM)

50 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 17-21)

West-to-east zonal flow will dominate our weather for the next several days. This will bring some quick changes to our region as nothing lingers for long. High pressure sitting over us early this morning has allowed a decent early morning of radiational cooling with many areas having fallen to the 20s. Coastal and urban temperatures are a little less cold, partly due to some lingering nighttime cloud cover and a little more wind in those locations. We’ll have a decent day today, but you’ll notice more clouds arriving as the day goes on, this in response to a warm front moving into and across the area. This front will not produce any precipitation for our area, however. We’ll be in the “warm sector” behind that front and ahead of an approaching cold front tonight and Thursday, with Thursday’s high temperatures soaring by November standards well into the 60s for most of the region – and not out of the question that a couple locations achieve a 70. The records for the date are above that and will remain as they are. Enjoy the warmth because it will not be hanging around. A strong cold front will move across the region Thursday night and early Friday, accompanied by a band of rain showers. As its parent low moves across southeastern Canada and strengthens, and high pressure moves into the Great Lakes from central Canada, we’ll find ourselves in a blustery, colder northwesterly air flow on Friday with temperatures having fallen to the 40s just behind the front, then pretty much sitting there during the day (may reach the lower 50s some areas). High pressure will move closer and winds will start to drop off gradually Friday night and then this high will move over the region giving us a very nice but chilly day Saturday. But as noted above, nothing will be hanging around, and the high will move offshore Sunday and an approaching warm front will bring more cloudiness to the region.

TODAY: Sunny start, then variably cloudy. Highs 50-57. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy evening. Mostly clear with patchy ground fog overnight. Lows 42-49. Wind S to SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny morning. Increasing clouds afternoon. Highs 63-70. Wind increasing to SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Widespread rain showers arriving west to east evening, ending west to east overnight. Lows 37-44. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW, higher gusts possible.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloudy mix. Chance of a passing rain and/or snow shower. Highs 45-52 in the morning, falling slowly through the 40s during the afternoon. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clear overnight. Lows 23-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts evening, diminishing overnight.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind NW up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 21-28. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 46-53. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 22-26)

Thanksgiving Week, a big travel, shopping, and gathering time for many. Perhaps no other week during the year faces such weather focus. What’s going to happen here? My thoughts have not really changed on this. The warm front that I spoke of above (for Sunday) will have passed by and we’ll find ourselves with a mild and wet Monday ahead of a cold front which will bring rain showers. As this front passes through we’ll likely see low pressure form on it in response to a vigorous upper level disturbanace. Model guidance has been all over the place with details on timing/movement of this feature with a wide variety of computer-predicted outcomes. No surprise there. My (and other forecaster’s) aim is to try to sort through it all and come up with the most likely scenario for our forecast. My having gone through that process yet again leads me to believe we’ll get colder air in fairly quickly behind that cold front but after the main precipitation is to our east. The low’s development will be rather rapid and it will likely intensify and do at least a partial and maybe complete cyclonic loop east and north of our region. The weather that results here would be unsettled, but not overly stormy in terms of heavy precipitation. It would be a blustery set up with rain and snow showers that could occur in the Tuesday to early Wednesday time frame. I still expect the system to have completed its tantrum and pulled off to the east enough so that we have calmer weather later Wednesday and for Thanksgiving Day on Thursday. A weak low pressure system may approach and move into the region by Friday (Nov 26) with a minor precipitation threat (favoring rain over snow but either possible). I’ll continue to fine-tune this forecast as we go.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 27 – DECEMBER 1)

The pattern does look a little more active in this time frame with a couple rain and/or snow threats from a more active Pacific jet stream. Similar to yesterday, a summary of the period would be precipitation near to above normal, but I’m not as sold on the colder side of the pattern right now so near to slightly above normal for overall temperatures.

50 thoughts on “Wednesday November 17 2021 Forecast (7:43AM)”

  2. Thanks TK.

    Dr. Judah Cohen predicts 50” for Boston. The “new” normal is 49.2”.

    He also believes the “snowiest” will be the month of February.

    1. I commented on that yesterday.
      There was a brief mention of a few indices, but no explanation. 90% of it was about the Polar Vortex. And there was a lot of “it may or may not”. As a viewer I got nothing out of that.

      I will say the February “guess” goes against all others I’ve seen so far, including CPC. Will it go against mine? We’ll see. 😉

      1. You get a lot of may or may not with Dr. Cohen.
        I lover what he does, but he is always to wishy washy with his forecasts.

        And you are correct, he always forecasts above average snow for Boston.

        I’d wager anything that TK’s Winter outlook does NOT have above average snow for Logan.

        Always love to see how these Winter outlooks compare with actual results.

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Logan is s total joke!!!
    Best I can tell they bottomed out at 35, unless they touched 34 between observations

    Down to 28 in JP

    I just checked Meso West and it looks like Logan did touch 34

    https://ibb.co/64htjFV

    1. Provincetown is another “stubborn” location for getting down to 32. I would be curious if they have actually beaten Logan in that regard. Do you know JPD?

      1. This is a good opportunity for forecasters to learn which model biases are stronger at which time ranges.

        1. I don’t know how you guys deal with this stuff.
          Long and medium range forecasts are impossible.
          EXPERIENCE sure does count in this business.
          It must be especially rough on rookie mets. I can’t even
          imagine. I suppose many get caught up in modelology and not meteorology.

          However, mets like WxWatcher, even though quite new to this business, has that understanding. He will be one of the good ones for sure.

          It is refreshing to have Mets on this blog who HAVE the experience and cut through all of the bullshit.

          Many thanks for what you do.

  7. Thank you, TK.

    33.6F was my low, so I think the Logan thermometer isn’t wrong, at least not this morning.

    Yet another splendid November day on tap. We often take for granted how beautiful our autumns are in terms of sunny days. As I’ve said before, in many places – like all of Northern Europe and many parts of the U.S. – sun in October and November is hard to find. Not here.

    1. In this case, I was not suggesting that the thermometer was incorrect. I was continuing my rant of the totally preposterous
      location of Boston’s Weather data.

  10. Revisiting temps last night. The link from Sak has Provincetown at a low of 40 but JPD saw 39. 39 must have hit between the 40 readings. Doesn’t count, but i suppose it is possible Logan dipped to 32 between the two 34 readings.

    Below is Provincetown municipal airport

    https://imgur.com/a/gPSWVFy

    1. I report the value from Meso West.
      SAK has pointed out in the past that there sometimes
      can be a rounding or truncating issue with that.

      So the actual temp at P-town could have been 39.6
      and meso west reported it as 39 (truncated) while the official
      reading was 40 (rounded).

      But meso west is still Great! Just have to understand this
      one little quirk.

      Thanks

  11. Logan was actually one of the cooler spots among most of the readings in and around downtown Boston this morning. As I look at the map, I see several 36 and 38 degree mins. Once you get outside the downtown core and where it’s a little less urban, it drops quickly.

  12. JPD, you mentioned that Dr. Cohen always tends to go above normal for Boston snowfall over the years. While you are certainly correct, this time his prediction of 50” is actually spot on normal as the “new” normal for Logan is now 49.2”. The “old” normal was 43.8”.

    I was thinking to myself while watching that news segment with Harvey “if” Dr. Cohen realizes that “normal” snow amounts have now changed. Hmmm. 😉

    In previous years, I don’t recall Dr. Cohen having ever predicted “normal” snowfall for Boston. Maybe I’m wrong?

  14. 12z model commentary (regarding the 3 major models operational runs)…

    Today, I feel that regarding the early-week set-up, the European model (which occasionally gathers its marbles) has a decent forecast for the general movement and behavior of features. The GFS, which I thought was leading the way, has lost a little bit of step and maybe a little over-amped on the low (similar to how the ECMWF was previously). Canadian model may be closest to what actually ends up taking place.

    This is still very much the same as I thought it would play out yesterday. But as we all know, it’s not that close enough yet to be that confident. Keeping an eye on things…

      1. Yes. As has always been the case and even more so right now with ocean temps above normal. There has been this increasing expectation it seems, or maybe I just notice it more thru social media, that November is a “winter month” here and that we have to be on the lookout for snowstorms at every turn. Nope. Snowstorms can happen in November, but they are rare in SNE. We can go back and find some, such as the Thanksgiving 1989 event, the Veterans Day 1987 anomalously cold snow event, and I believe a Thanksgiving Eve moderate powdery snowstorm in 2002 (if I recall the year correctly). We have them, but not often.

  15. I hate ice&snow especially after I shattered my right ankle on February 18 on black ice underneath about an Inch of snow. The apartment complex where I live did not treat the walkway properly. I have ten screws and two plates in my ankle. It took two hours in surgery to put everything back together. I heard my ankle snap when I was falling. Needless to say I’m in litigation someone needs to be responsible! I’m still going to therapy.

    1. The private company I used to work for dealt with a lot of such cases (providing data for those in your position). That is a rough injury. I can only wish you the best from here with continued recover and rehab!

    1. It’s funny how it and the Euro have flip-flopped. Now this one is over-amplifying the system.

      1. We shall see what happens over the next several days.
        I am certainly NOT expecting to see any kind of snow storm, although it would not upset me if we did. 🙂

        1. Well, I have tickets to see a high school football game at Fenway Park on Nov 24, so I’d rather not. 😉

    2. Love how the 540 contour ends up practically in Bermuda while the 546 contour ends up in Hudson’s Bay. A bit wound up don’t ya think? LOL.

      1. Too funny. I don’t expect this model to carry this scenario for very many runs.

        It’s been very amusing if not slightly frustrating to try to figure out which model(s) will go off the rails next. Seems like we’ve taken a step back in medium range model prediction of late… 😉

    1. Thank you. NOT at all surprised in this outlook. Sounds about right to me. The only complaint I would have that he
      exudes too much confidence. Way to much so, imho. Like he is so cock-sure of his Winter outlook that NOTHING could possibly go wrong with it.

  18. A lot of people reporting a huge boom in framingham, stow, Bolton area. We didn’t hear or feel anything here. Anyone?

  19. Based on the flash in the video that I saw, I’m pretty sure it was a bolide that occurred.

    (Blog will be updated by about 8…)

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