DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 18-22)

Many times this autumn, the “pick of the week” has been Thursday (coincidence), and this week is no exception if you like warm conditions. Yes, it’s mid November, and we’ve felt the chill of the season recently, but today will be a big exception. A warm front moved through the region last night and after low temperatures in the 40s during the evening, it warmed into the 50s overnight, along with the dew points as you probably noticed by the “wet ground but it didn’t rain” look early this morning. Those dew points will be left behind in the 50s today but the temperature will continue its climb on a freshening southwesterly breeze ahead of an approaching cold front, and it will be a battle between warm advection and length of daylight to determine who makes it to 70 today. At least 60s for all though! I’ve seen commentary out on social media about how “crazy” this is for November. Not really. Although a day in the 60s to 70 is not overly common for November, we usually get at least one instance of it every year, and sometimes more. It just tends to be very fleeting at this time of year in most cases (last year being an exception when we had an extended stretch of November warmth). Well, this one won’t be hanging around. The aforementioned cold front will be charging across the region from west to east tonight, with a band of rain showers. Some of the shorter range guidance has depicted strips of snowfall on the back side of the rain area as the temperature plummets directly behind the sharp front, and to some degree (no pun intended), this is likely a true representation, but even though the flakes may fly in portions of central MA and southwestern NH, they won’t last and they won’t stick, because the ground will simply be too warm. For most of us, the rain will come to an end, and the temperature will drop fast as the wind shifts. Of interest to sky watchers is the timing of the clearing, which should take place very quickly behind the precipitation. There is a partial lunar eclipse (not far from total) that starts in the 2 a.m. hour and lasts into the 5 a.m. hour, and hopefully we will get enough clearing in the WHW forecast area to see the last part of this event. After a slight recovery in temperature first thing in the morning, we won’t see them go up any further, but down gradually from there, and Friday will be one of those days that features a gusty wind and passing clouds, a few of which may release a brief rain or snow shower, though most of these will stack in the mountains to our west and north. Friday night, as high pressure from Canada moves closer via the Great Lakes, the wind will drop off and the temperature will follow suit, under a clear sky. Most areas will find themselves in the 20s by dawn Saturday. But Saturday will be a very nice day with lots of sunshine and light wind so the cold of the morning and the recovery to the 40s won’t be too tough to take if you are outside. Plymouth Massachusetts has its annual Thanksgiving parade that day, which the weather will be great for! As we get to the back half of the weekend, it’s time for more changes. A warm front approaches on Sunday with more cloudiness but a rain-free day. Low pressure will pass northwest and north of our region Monday, dragging a cold front and a ribbon of rainfall through our area, though it will be fairly mild for a good parts of the day as the frontal boundary will still be west of us until sometime Monday evening.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 64-71. Wind SW 10-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Widespread rain showers arriving west to east evening, ending west to east overnight. Lows 37-44. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW, higher gusts possible.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Chance of a passing rain and/or snow shower. Highs 45-52 in the morning, falling slowly through the 40s during the afternoon. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clear overnight. Lows 23-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts evening, diminishing overnight.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind NW up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 21-28. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 46-53. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers arriving late evening or overnight. Lows 39-46. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Widespread rain showers. Highs 51-58. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 23-27)

Still working on the details of what happens once the frontal boundary clears the coast. A low pressure area likely does form on it to our east Tuesday and do a loop to our east through early Wednesday, far enough away to not bring stormy weather but close enough so that some showers of rain/mix/snow may occur during this time frame, along with windy and colder weather. A more tranquil period of weather later Wednesday (Nov 24) through Thanksgiving Day (Nov 25) as a small area of high pressure moves in. We will watch for a weak system coming through from the west with a minor precipitation later Nov 26 or Nov 27.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 28 – DECEMBER 2)

The pattern does look a little more active in this time frame with a couple rain and/or snow threats from a more active Pacific jet stream resulting in near to slightly above normal precipitation and temperature for the period overall.