Saturday November 20 2021 Forecast (7:22AM)

33 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 20-24)

The fine-tuning has been ongoing for the period of time leading up to Thanksgiving, and that’s what the next 5 days are through Wednesday. We start with a not-so-bad weekend that features plenty of sunshine under high pressure’s control today and more cloudiness as a warm front approaches on Sunday. There may be some light rainfall not too far away Sunday morning and midday as the thickest band of cloudiness with the warm front moves through, and a little low level moisture may cause a shower to cross the Cape Cod area sometime during the day as well, otherwise expect an essentially rain-free Sunday. It is the cold front crossing the region Monday that will produce widespread rain showers for our region, but most of these will occur during the morning and midday hours before a drying trend takes over. It will be mild on Monday, but once the front goes by, in comes a new cold air mass for Monday night through Wednesday. Tuesday and Wednesday will be dry days as it stands now with the evolution of low pressure on the frontal boundary taking place far enough to the east and northeast of our region not to have impact more than just enhancing the northerly air flow and chilly air flowing into the region. So general weather for pre-Thanksgiving travel, other than for several hours Monday, will not be that bad at all.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind NW up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 21-28. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy – least sun morning, a bit more sun afternoon. Possible rain shower Cape Cod. Highs 46-53. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers arriving late evening or overnight. Lows 39-46 evening then rising temperatures overnight. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Widespread rain showers morning and midday. Highs 51-58. Wind S 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 41-48. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 25-29)

Thanksgiving Day (November 25) looks dry and tranquil and a little milder than the couple days leading up to it as high pressure sits over the area. High pressure shifts offshore and a low pressure system passes north of the region while weakening November 26, bringing some cloudiness and perhaps some rain shower activity to the region. This leads to a dry, breezy, and seasonably chilly weekend November 27-28. We’ll have to watch a wave of low pressure taking a more southerly track as it approaches the region at the end of the period. If it were to get into the region some frozen precipitation would be possible, but it also may be forced too far south to have much of an impact. At day 10, this is a low confidence outlook.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 30 – DECEMBER 4)

One or two precipitation threats are possible between the final day of November through the first several days of December with a bit of a rollercoaster temperature pattern.

33 thoughts on “Saturday November 20 2021 Forecast (7:22AM)”

  3. Thanks TK.

    Please keep Black Friday dry for shopping. The tv mets not only have it dry but sunny.

    And maybe the first snow event of the season on my birthday (11/29)?

    1. I think we’ll have a weak system moving through that day that won’t stop anybody for doing what they want.

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Beautiful morning Not as cold as I thought it might be . Briefly reached 29 at 6:54 AM . Did Logan make 32? Highly doubt it About to check

  7. Thanks TK.

    It helps to have these bright blue sky days in between the dark and cloudy ones, at least until the days start getting longer. That seasonal affective disorder is a real thing. It’s amazing we can’t use our minds to think ourselves out of it. Need sunshine. Blue skies. Maybe walking outside. Ocean waves!

  8. The WBZ-TV AccuWeather team’s snowfall prediction for Boston is 25-40”. That is a very wide range imo. In the past, they have always come up with one specific number.

    Is this winter that difficult to predict?

    1. They are getting ready for the HomeLight Killington Cup next weekend. The competition is being held on the Superstar trail so they have been absolutely pounding it with snow and have nearly 150 snow guns set up on the trail. Unfortunately it probably wont be open to the public until after next weekend.

      1. The 25-40” is rather unsettling as I mentioned above. It will be 4 years straight of below normal snowfall.

        Off the top of my head, I believe the record is 7 straight back in the 1950s. Hope we don’t end up there in the upcoming years.

    2. There is such bust potential with a well below normal prediction like that though. You can get into a favorable pattern for 3 weeks or so and line up 3 or 4 systems in a row and rack up 25-30″ easily. Or get one big east coast storm and you are approaching the low end range in one shot. Of course, Eric acknowledges that in the writeup.

      There are a lot of similarities though early on to that dreadful 2011-2012 winter and that does not give me warm fuzzies. What’s worse, that winter was horrible right up into southern Canada. I’m OK with getting below normal here as long as the ski areas are still able to cash in. We are just going to have to see what happens.

      1. If it’s going to be a front loaded winter, at least there may be better potential for a White Christmas for SNE.

        1. I am not so sure the front loaded thing is locked in stone. Excerpt from Eric’s writeup about the PV:

          “Bottom line is that a significant disruption early in the season would point to some front-loaded cold outbreaks, but a stronger vortex and milder conditions later in winter. If one occurs more toward mid-January or February, then you’re in trouble toward early spring. The way things are starting, that second path looks more likely than the former.”

          He does later say that the coldest month of the season is likely to be December which sort of contradicts the above statement.

      2. True, but I am feeling pretty down for the Winter Season.
        Hope there are a few surprises along the way. We shall see.

  14. Thanks TK.

    I’m pretty good about blocking out media noise, but I can’t help shake my head at how bad some of the reporting was on the potential “travel nightmare” storm this week. As we stare at an absolutely massive area of high pressure which will be parked over the Eastern Seaboard almost all week. Unfortunate that many people were likely caused undo stress, and perhaps even changed plans, based on media nonsense.

    Incidentally, the next 2-3 weeks have the potential to be very dry, on top of what has already been a pretty dry stretch recently. Brush fire activity tends to see a secondary maximum (compared to the spring) in the late fall months, after leaf-drop but before any snow cover. With those conditions in place and likely to remain that way for some time, use caution with any outdoor open flames!

        1. I will check. It may end up having to be all or nothing (meaning it would reset this page too). Gotta love WordPress for that. 😛

  16. We are only at 30…higher than most nights that drop very low. Boston 39. Surrounding areas also. We will both have to bottom out quickly

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