Sunday November 21 2021 Forecast (8:27AM)

55 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 21-25)

A quick discussion for this Sunday update. No big changes to the outlook. Warm front moves through today / tonight with lots of clouds, although there will be some intervals of sun today between heavier cloud areas. Across Cape Cod, however, there will be a feed of low level moisture enough to produce some rain showers, so a bit more of an unsettle day there. Overnight through midday Monday comes the wet weather period for the remainder of the region as well, with rain showers as a cold front approaches from the west, though it will be mild post-warm front and pre-cold front. That cold front will sweep across the area during Monday, which ends drier as the temperature starts to go down. As we have leaned all along, the front gets offshore for enough so that new storminess on it occurs far enough east for no significant impact, in fact so far east that it will only serve to enhance a chilly wind across the region Tuesday, which will then relax Wednesday as high pressure moves in from the west. So all-in-all other than a relatively minor bump in the road Monday, we’re looking at good local and regional travel weather leading up to Thanksgiving. The holiday itself will also feature nice weather courtesy high pressure, but the center of it shifting to the east a bit will allow for a milder day than we see Wednesday.

TODAY: Lots of clouds / partial sunshine. Scattered rain showers Cape Cod. Highs 46-53. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH except 5-15 MPH Cape Cod.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Numerous to widespread rain showers arriving west to east late evening and overnight. Lows 39-46 evening then rising temperatures overnight. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Widespread rain showers morning and midday. Highs 51-58. Wind S 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 41-48. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 28-35. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING): Mostly sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 26-30)

A weak frontal boundary from low pressure passing north of the region may bring a few rain showers November 26 (Black Friday) but no significant problems for shopping trips, maybe minor inconvenience if you have outdoor decorating plans. Dry, cool, breezy weather November 27-28 weekend. Still watching the November 29-30 period for the potential impact of low pressure, but most indications this far out indicate it may miss the region to the south.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 1-5)

The early days of December look mostly dry with one or two minor precipitation threats and some up-and-down temperatures. Can’t get a real feel for specific trend at this point, really just looks like more of the same.

55 thoughts on “Sunday November 21 2021 Forecast (8:27AM)”

  5. Good Morin g and thank you TK.
    Ho-hum weather. Not impressed with anything on the horizon so far. blah, blah blah.

        1. I can hear Dr. Cohen saying PV disruption coming in 2 weeks, only to be moved forward again and again and again until all of a sudden we are into April. 🙂

          2. There’s a reason why you don’t hear me base much on PV disruptions. Those are NOT well-forecast. They are usually developments that we see coming in the shorter term with any amount of confidence, and I’d rather adjust a medium range forecast based on that kind of change than try to focus 75% of my long range forecast on it. I totally respect the doc, but I totally disagree with his method this season as well as his forecast.

            1. His snowfall forecast is 50” for Boston.

              Even if you base it on the new normal (49.2”) it’s too high imo.

              1. I wasn’t initially, but after seeing some of the new monthlies coming out, I’m not so sure. This is one of the reasons I have not completed my winter outlook yet, which I was planning on posting yesterday or today. I still promise I’ll post it before meteorological “winter”. 😉

  9. Last week I upgraded from iPhone 6 to iPhone 12 with 5G! 😀

    The articles you guys post here load almost immediately and even the ad filled BZ website only takes a few extra seconds. Before, that website took a good 5 minutes to load just to read the first few paragraphs of an article or news story.

    Love this new 5G! 🙂

      1. Thanks TK! I heard on the tv news last week that 3G/4G/LTE is being phased out next year. You won’t be able to so much as call 911 unless you switch to the 5G.

          1. My carrier (Sprint/T-Moble) will no longer support LTE as of January 1, 2022.

            I don’t know about other companies as far as their specific date of termination.

        2. A friend who uses ADT has to pay a fair amount to have the system upgraded since it uses verizon. I don’t think my security system depends on 5G or whatever, but I have not read about this. The smart lights in my house all use 2.4….and again, I really don’t pay enough attention to look into what that means. I have 2.4 and 5G options on my devices so just switch back and forth as directed.

  10. Last 3 Bruins games have had the exact same result…

    Bruins 5 / Devils 2
    Bruins 5 / Canadiens 2
    Bruins 5 / Flyers 2

    1. 5-2 game for the Islanders last night as well only a loss…and their fifth in a row. Terrible start to the season for them!

      1. 🙁 I like the Isles! Hope they turn it around!

        Bruins, to me, are not necessarily a cup favorite, but they have been impressing me recently. Young goaltenders, line-up changes with new guys and a few veterans. Who knows where this goes, but I don’t think it leads to the finals. One never knows for sure though…

      1. Same here. It’ll either be a complete miss or a rain event. We all know how weather works by now, having been on this blog. 😉

    3. I left the Nov 29-30 as a “watcher” period for a reason. I’m not sold yet that nothing happens here. 🙂

  14. I noticed that Logan got down to 33 yesterday morning. Getting there. Sigh…

    I find it interesting that they can achieve the same high temperature pretty much as the surrounding suburbs but have such difficulty with low temperatures. I guess that “heat island” affect is very strong.

    2. Logan’s low temp has also been in the same range of surrounding areas. I don’t see Logan at 33. (I admit to having a headache so eyes are not completely focused.). Lowest I found for Logan was 35 at 5:59 am 11/20. Boston near the common was 36 at that same time.

  16. We’ve had a lot of up and down model performance.

    The overall performance has been poor, but the worst by each model seems to come at a different set of future times, and even those have not been consistent. It’s been exceedingly complex to try to figure this out, but I will admit it’s been a very fun challenge. 😉

  18. Still some lingering colors. Nice November day.

    All the talk of “Black Friday” reminded me of something my ex-wife told me in the mid 1990s when I returned to the U.S. with her and our children. When the phrase “Black Friday” came over the airwaves, she had no idea what they were talking about. Nor did I. She’s Dutch. I’m American, but had not been in the U.S. during the Thanksgiving period for 16 years. It sounded “ominous,” and “politically radical,” she said. Perhaps they were remembering the “Black Friday” that had occurred in England in 1910. https://twitter.com/EnglishRadical/status/1461302955810996227

    We quickly learned what Black Friday meant. To this day, however, find it a bizarre term, especially as a kick-off to holiday shopping.

    1. Awesome memory. I never knew what it meant either. One of my kids said it means stores operate in the black for that day due to all the sales.

  19. I think I’m reading correctly that there was a Cape Ann tornado warning in the pre-dawn hours.

    Anyhow, we had a heavy shower 15 minutes ago and its nice and mild.

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