Monday November 22 2021 Forecast (9:05AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 22-26)

The holiday week is underway and there are no big changes to the outlook. First though, a little more potent were the showers and even a few isolated thunderstorms associated with the warm frontal passage overnight. Here at the WHW headquarters in Woburn I heard thunder off to my south and southeast in the 2 a.m. hour, and that cluster resulted in a short-lived tornado warning for Essex County MA as low level rotation was detected by radar, strong enough for a warning, according to the NWS. However, at this time I have not seen any reports of damage and I don’t believe that we will see any. Otherwise, today will start out on the wet side for most of the region ahead of a cold front that is bringing one final band of rain, mainly during this morning. The front itself will pass through the region from west to east during midday and afternoon, but the clouds will hang tough during the day, with only a few breaks possible. The front will introduce a much colder air mass to the region tonight into midweek. This colder air will come along with a gusty wind Tuesday between strengthening low pressure in eastern Canada and high pressure to our west. For the first time this season we will be talking about noticeable wind chill. The wind will settle down as high pressure noses closer to the region during Tuesday night and Wednesday, but that will be a slow process. But other than the wet weather early today, the next three days bring generally favorable pre-Thanksgiving travel weather, and even the holiday itself looks great for local and regional travel, visiting, and high school football games and other outdoor activities, as high pressure sinking off to the south will bring fair weather and a slight warm-up. When we get to Friday, low pressure will move quickly down the St. Lawrence Valley and will drag a warm front / cold front combo across the region. The timing on this system looks quick, with impact mainly during the morning for any rainfall threat, followed by windy and colder weather with perhaps a passing snow shower before the day is over. Keep that in mind if you plan on doing any traditional in-store Black Friday shopping – not a major impact but plan for some wet weather to start and a windy/cold finish.

TODAY: Cloudy. Rain tapering off from west to east during the morning. Highs 52-59 this morning, cooling into the 40s west to east this afternoon. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH with gusts 20-25 MPH mainly Cape Cod / South Coast, shifting to W this afternoon.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 36-43. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below freezing at times.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear except Cape Cod clouds and a few snow showers possible. Lows 18-25. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 20 at times.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 39-46. Wind NW-W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 25-32. Wind W-SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING): Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 46-53. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with a brief period of light rain in the morning followed by few midday rain showers, then variably cloudy afternoon with a slight chance of a passing rain or snow shower. Highs 41-48 morning, falling into the 30s afternoon. Wind variable 5-15 MPH morning, WNW 10-20 MPH and gusty afternoon.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 27 – DECEMBER 1)

The November 27-28 weekend looks mostly dry, perhaps a passing insignificant snow flurry or sprinkle of rain, but breezy and rather chilly. Overnight lows drop to the 20s, maybe even a few upper 10s possible. Daytime highs recover to the lower 40s, maybe some upper 30s hills. Watching the period November 29-30 for the potential impact by low pressure, but right now the overall idea is that any system may be pushed to the south of the region by a much larger low pressure circulation to our north and northeast. Fair and seasonable weather looking out to December 1.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 2-6)

Indications are for below normal precipitation and near to slightly below normal temperatures for the early days of December with high pressure the main controller in a west northwesterly air flow.

46 thoughts on “Monday November 22 2021 Forecast (9:05AM)”

  3. Did we have a tornado warning in Essex county last night? Harvey’s posts on FB appear at really odd times – only Harvey’s – and the warning for last night was there so I’m not sure whether it is real.

    1. Yes, around 3:00 a.m. .. I mentioned it in the discussion. It was short-lived and I don’t believe anything happened up there. No damage reports. It was another instance of radar-indicated rotation picked out by the super-seeing radar, and a quick warning. If we end up with too many false alarm warnings, they may need to re-visit how quickly they issue warnings based on radar indicated rotation. It will be learning process. There’s a fine-line between public not trusting warnings due to false alarms, and wanting to use caution. Not an easy position to be in. I’m for issuing the warnings, so long as frequent education and reminder is provided. 🙂

      1. I am in agreement with you, however, as you say, there may come a time when it needs to be reviewed. Does anyone
        keep stats on how often these warnings verify. My gut and that is all it is, says about 50% give or take or perhaps a bit less. What would the cut off be for changing the warning criteria?

        1. I know the stat is kept somewhere, but I’m not sure how/where to find it. 50% is a good guess to start out. As far as I know, the weather service has always aimed to have a better than 50/50 warning to reality record, especially for the purpose of not having complacency build. But how much of this is their responsibility, and how much of it is the public’s responsibility to strive to understand this? That said, I think it’s the NWS’s responsibility to continue to push the education aspect. Yes, they have things like severe weather awareness week, at the beginning of traditional severe weather season. But if we now have technology that shows us we are vulnerable to low level shear tornadoes more often than we’ve ever been able to detect, I think it follows that we need more than just a “severe weather week” to remind people of the severe weather that is most likely in the summer.

          1. Love this comment and completely agree. It is a two way street…

            “But how much of this is their responsibility, and how much of it is the public’s responsibility to strive to understand this? That said, I think it’s the NWS’s responsibility to continue to push the education aspect.”

      2. Thank you – uncharacteristically read discussion very quickly as working on Parade Minutes this morning before Thanksgiving prep. Fun week to be sure.

        We also have had tornadoes with no warnings. Those bother me far more. Being notified of a potential does not bother me. As you know, I am not a fan of caving to folks who yell the loudest but in the long run may well be the group that doesn’t act on a warning either way.

  4. I have resumed writing winter forecast 2021-2022. I posted it on November 22 last year. I’m not sure it gets posted on November 22 this year. But by November 24. We’ll see how it goes. 😉

  8. Thanks TK.

    RE: Tornado Warnings… It’s worth noting that by most metrics, NWS Tornado Warning statistics have not improved, on average, in several years. Why is this? It’s the same thing we’ve talked about many times – increased awareness/visibility of weak, brief tornadoes. Many of these tornadoes go unwarned, or else are warned with only a couple minutes of lead time. But they count the same as the “big” tornadoes (which isn’t really fair to NWS forecasters). Or, as we may have seen last night, there are cases where forecasters will try to anticipate one of these weak/brief tornadoes and nothing ends up happening, and you get a false alarm.

    Importantly, there continues to be very clear improvement in warning statistics for strong (EF2+) tornadoes. And I would expect these trends to continue – better detection and lead time of strong tornadoes but little change in the weak ones. But again, in aggregate they all count the same, and there’s a lot more weak ones than strong ones…

    I agree that education is key on this issue, but trying to make this point to a general audience is not easy. That’s not to take a shot at what the average person can/can’t easily understand; the fact is, it’s a complicated subject.

  10. Well, I dug in, and I finished the winter forecast.

    What time do you want me to post it?

    I’m thinking this afternoon sometime when the comments section here tends to start to wind down for the day…

  11. I’ll post it now. Please if you find any typos or indiscernible phrases point them out to me! My normal proofreader who lives 3000 miles away is actually on the East Coast right now but in a long series of online meetings and may not get to read it right away. 😉

      1. I didn’t. When I went out for bloodwork this morning I grabbed a treat that covered both breakfast & lunch. 🙂

        As you have probably figured out, I am not at work in Reading, but at the WHW HQ. 😉

    1. Just consumed the whole thing. What a great read.
      I strongly suggest everyone visit that and take it in.

      Thank you TK.

      So, are we having the snow contest this year? yay or nay?

        2. Am I keeping track of numbers. I’m happy to unless someone else wants to

          Can contest numbers be on contest page and is it possible to set that page only to newest comments on top or will that change all pages. Thanks.

  14. TK – Let us know the rules for the Snowfall Contest: where to post amounts, deadline, etc.

    Thanks

    I for one just plan on posting for Logan. One location is hard enough.

    1. Thank you. Guess made and left there. I think I was only reasonably close one year of all the years we have been doing this. Hope I am wrong this year again!!!

  16. Thank you, TK.

    Appreciate so much your winter forecast.

    Been looking forward to a day like tomorrow for more than 8 months.

    Snow predictions for the winter:

    – Boston – 33.8
    – Providence – 29.2
    – Worcester – 44.7

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