Wednesday November 24 2021 Forecast (8:04AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 24-28)

I had a dream that the GFS run from November 13 was right after all and despite 12-hour forecasts of a clear and cold morning we woke up to a foot and a half of snow in the Boston area with a strong northerly wind! I’m kidding of course – this was the GFS’s dream back then and it may be dreaming again, but we’ll re-visit that a little later in this blog post. First, we do have a clear and cold morning after a windy and cold night. I could hear neighbor’s barrels (it’s trash day here on Woods Hill) going down in the middle of the night. Thankfully in our area we don’t have much of a mess. My across-the-street neighbor’s barrel went over and 2 bags exited it, but thankfully stayed tightly tied, and I just had to pick up the barrel and put the 2 bags back in. Those that can forecast the wind might have waited until 6:30 a.m. to drag the stuff to curbside. I waited. And now 10 barrels full of autumn yard debris, 4 bins full of recycling, and 1 lonely trash barrel sit there in a 5-15 MPH breeze, not facing the fate of the take-down and empty-out. Timing is everything! 😉 And now you know more than you ever wanted about my trash strategy and how many bins and barrels I had to put out, but we can move on. A great day weatherwise today for travel and even outdoor activities as we keep the chill but lose the wind with high pressure moving much closer. There were 2 high school football Thanksgiving games at Fenway Park in Boston last evening and the wind chill was pretty rough there. Tonight, there are two more, and I will be at the second one, watching the 4th oldest rivalry in the state (Woburn vs. Winchester) under a clear sky and light wind with temperatures in the 30s. Not too bad compared to some of the Thanksgiving morning weather we’ve seen for these games, including a recent teens with wind chill below zero game. Brr!! And by the way, go Woburn! High pressure slides offshore on Thursday and we will see the sky start to fill with more clouds as the day goes on, but it will be a dry and milder day, excellent for all the morning football games and running races, and local visits for the holiday. After a chilly start, we’ll recover nicely with most areas going over 50 for highs. Then comes our one unsettled day of this 5-day forecast period – Friday, or “Black Friday” for the shopping among us. Low pressure will pass north of our region but drag a warm front followed by a cold front west-to-east across the region. While this system’s warm front will generate limited precipitation, its warm sector will have a bit more for the cold front to work on, but not enough to result in a significant rainfall event, just a lighter one with a couple rounds of rain showers before the cold front pushes through from west to east from midday to mid afternoon. This should put an end to the rain threat. That precipitation will exit before the cold air is in enough to end it as snow anywhere in the WHW forecast area, but we may see a passing snow flurry a little later in the day or during the evening as a new cold air mass arrives from Canada via the Great Lakes. This will set us up for a cold and breezy Saturday on the southern periphery of a low pressure circulation, but with dry weather, and a continued chilly but more tranquil Sunday as a narrow area of high pressure makes its way into our region.

TODAY: 100% sunshine. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH, diminishing later.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 23-30. Wind W under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING): Sunny morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with a few episodes of rain and rain showers morning-midday. Breaking clouds later. Highs 41-48 morning, falling below 40 by day’s end. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to W from west to east.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a passing snow flurry early. Lows 21-28. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 20.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 29 – DECEMBER 3)

Oh look! A couple runs of one medium range model has a more important winter storm for November 29, and it has little or no support from other guidance and generally no support from its own ensemble guidance. That means it’s definitely gonna happen, right?! Not so fast. Where have we seen this before? Yes, I have talked about November 29-30 being a period to watch for a potential event for many days in the blog now, and that is still true, regarding November 29 as I am able to bring the timing a bit more into focus. It would be unwise to talk this system up from a forecasting standpoint right now, given you extract the actual information I just presented to you in a snarky way. Yes, a model has shown it for 2 runs (we won’t even discuss snow amounts it tried to forecast on one of the runs), and no it doesn’t have much support from any other guidance. What this tells me is that we have to continue to watch this potential system, and that our most likely impact from it would be a minor to moderate rain/mix/snow event, with snow most likely away from the coast, occurring November 29. This is day 6. It would be highly unreasonable to try to be any more specific about that right now. Beyond that threat, look for a fair weather end to November, a frontal system bringing a rain/snow shower threat around December 1, and fair, seasonably chilly weather to follow that.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 4-8)

Indications are for a west northwest flow dominating the weather overall. A progressive trough / clipper system may bring a rain/mix/snow threat around mid period. Temperatures average fairly close to normal for the stretch but with some typical variability.

42 thoughts on “Wednesday November 24 2021 Forecast (8:04AM)”

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Here is the unamed model depiction for 11/29. (6Z version)

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021112406/129/prateptype_cat.us_ne.png

    Kuchera Snow

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021112406/147/snku_acc.us_ne.png

    0Z version

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021112400/141/prateptype_cat.us_ne.png

    0Z Kuchera Snow

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021112400/156/snku_acc.us_ne.png

      1. Even knowing it was not reality, it was still nice seeing it.
        It’s getting to be that time of year. 🙂

        btw, any ideas why there is not Euro data at Pivotal Weather?

  10. FWIW, the 12Z GFS still has the system for 11/29, albeit slightly different. But that is 3 successive runs with this feature.

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021112412/117/prateptype_cat.us_ne.png

    Kuchera Snow

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021112412/138/snku_acc.us_ne.png

    IF this were ever to verify, it would be quite a bonanza for the ski areas up North. Not nearly so much down here, and virtually nothing at the coast.

    However, something fun to watch no matter what actually happens.

    Let’s see if there is any support with other models????

    1. Kind of reminds me of the 3 consecutive runs on Nov 13th with the holiday-altering winter storm for November 24th. 😉 At least this time it’s not that far out into the future. Doesn’t mean I buy it though. 😉

      1. Oh, I understand that. 5-6 days out with 3 successive runs, is beginning to show some promise. I’d feel better about it, if both the Euro and the CMC show some support.

            1. I don’t think there’s been a question of a potential “system” in there, as I’ve had it as a watch period for 10 days running. The question comes down to what kind of system & impact do we see. I don’t currently believe we tap into enough for a deep system that hangs back. I’d expect a weaker, faster-moving one. But that may be the first of a few threats heading into early December. This doesn’t look like an early season “snow dump” kind of pattern, but it does kind of have the look of an early season series of minor events type of pattern…

  11. Arizona Snow Bowl at the Northern part of Flagstaff opened
    for the Season this morning. Rock Skis anyone?

    https://www.snowbowl.ski/the-mountain/webcams/

    I wouldn’t wait in a line like this for anything! I would demand
    my money back. it’s the only lift open. As you can see, there isn’t much snow and other than 2 inches overnight, what they have it limited machine made snow produced under marginal conditions as it has been 80 degrees 2 hours away in Phoenix.

  13. Up to 48 here now. It was still 36 when I went to get the Turkey at 10:45. But the farm is at the highest point in Sutton.

    Cooking underway. I sure hope everyone is having fun preparing for our day of thanks.

  14. Climate change causing birds to `divorce’? BBC reports suggests this may be happening. https://twitter.com/BBCWorld/status/1463564838492413960

    I’m about to do my jog for the day. I’ll check to see if there’s any squabbling among the swan pairs that I encounter, or the Canada Geese, for that matter. They seem to be irritated with one another all the time. Perhaps their divorce rate is high, regardless of climate change.

    1. “climate change causing albatross divorce”

      If nothing else this wins the stupidest headline of the year award.

    2. Stupid headline yes. It is actually a very interesting and plausible article. The mistake was trying to write it to relate to humans. Humans tend to trivialize our critters and the tone of the article promotes that

    1. Thank you SAK. Appreciate your thoughts for Monday.
      We’re all watching.

      btw, Loved your musical selection. 🙂

  18. Thanks, TK!

    Wishing you all the best and blessings of a wonderful Thanksgiving! Enjoy your family and friends!

    Have a great time at the Big Game tonight, TK…Mansfield and Foxboro played one of the best and most thrilling games in their 90-year history at Fenway in 2018. FHS beat MHS in triple OT!

    The Hornets and Warriors play for the 90th time in Mansfield tomorrow morning!

    What a wonderful thing it is that John Henry and Robert Kraft allow local high schools to play at Fenway and Gillette! A thrill of the lifetime for the teams, coaches, families, cheer teams, bands and communities to play on such historic fields!

    1. Happy Thanksgiving, Captain, to you and your family. I sure do agree re the thrill for the younger teams to play on those fields.

    2. Josh NIchols. He’s a freelancer. He’s originally from Easton. I have known him for over 30 years. He’s been on the air and Rochester and Buffalo for the past 20+ years, and was offered the opportunity to fill-in on WBZ at times and jumped at it, as it was a lifelong dream of his to be on the air in Boston.

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