Thursday November 25 2021 Forecast (9:08AM)

57 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 25-29)

A Happy Thanksgiving to all! Fifty years ago, on Thanksgiving 1971, it was quite a rainy one with Boston’s highest Thanksgiving Day rain total of 2.60 inches being recorded. Well it won’t be anything like that today, nor will it be like Boston’s snowiest (4.4 inches in 1989), coldest (11F in 1973), or warmest (71F in 1941). It will be one of the nicest, with high pressure bringing fair weather and a chilly start evolving into a milder day as sun gives way to some cloudiness as a warm front approaches the region. But this front won’t bring anything more than clouds as it goes by this evening. For Black Friday, we’ll have a strong cold front approaching the region in the morning when most of if not all of the region will be impacted by rain showers, but this front is going to be chugging right along and pass through the region by early afternoon. As this happens, a wave of low pressure will be starting to form on it in the Gulf of Maine and rapidly intensifying. This may enhance the chance of snow showers especially across southern NH and MA as the cold air rushes in. There may be a small accumulation of snow and some icy spots due to partial melting on initially warm ground and re-freezing as temperatures drop and surfaces chill down early Friday evening. Blustery and colder conditions will continue through Friday night and into Saturday, but it will be dry. High pressure moves closer to the region by Sunday which will still be a chilly day but with less wind. Clouds will start to appear ahead of the next unsettled weather system, and once again we have a situation where computer guidance has shown anything from a weak system with a light rain/mix/snow event to a full-fledged snowstorm for parts of the region. Early leaning from me, a minor to moderate system clipping the region Monday, odds favoring rain in coastal areas mix/snow for inland areas. Fine-tuning will be done with time…

TODAY (THANKSGIVING): Sunny morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy morning with widespread rain showers,. Variably cloudy with scattered snow showers favoring southern NH and northern MA afternoon. Highs 41-48 morning, falling into the 30s afternoon. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to NW from west to east.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Snow showers early evening may leave a minor accumulation in the hills of central MA and across southern NH and northeastern MA. Lows 21-28. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 20.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 40-47. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Rain and snow possible. Lows 30-37. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Rain and snow possible. Highs 37-44. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 30 – DECEMBER 4)

Near to below normal temperatures. Watching December 1-2 for a possible minor event that may include some snow.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 5-9)

Overall westerly flow, but enough trough may appear to bring a precipitation event of note around mid period. Temperatures near to below normal.

57 thoughts on “Thursday November 25 2021 Forecast (9:08AM)”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Happy Thanksgiving to all!

    Regarding Sunday night/Monday, it is beginning to look more
    like a Manitoba Mauler instead of a Saskatchewan Screamer
    as it really develops in Manitoba. AND, then it “appears” to me
    that it will track farther North. The big question is: will there be redevelopment just South of SNE and if so, exactly where.
    That will determine who gets the snow and who doesn’t. (not to mention the warm ocean, currently 52.16, ave: 48.34 Like it to be at least down around 45, better in the 30s)

    I think the jury is still out and the verdict should be more apparent in the next day or 2.

    Just my thoughts, FWIW.

  4. Thank you, TK. I don’t think 1971 left a big impression, but 1989 sure did. We had a fairly large addition framed and I recall my son and I shoveling it inside while Mac headed to Belmont to get my parents so they didn’t have to drive.

    I wish a happy, healthy and safe Thanksgiving to all!!!

  6. We seem to have a resident Great Horned Owl. We have yet to see him, but we have heard him four nights now. I sure would love to see him.

  7. Here are a few charts from the 12Z NAM

    Surface. My guess is redevelopment “should” take place somewhere in the vicinity of the red X and then pass South of Nantucket.

    https://ibb.co/0cyqdx3

    500 mb chart

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2021112512/084/500wh.us_ne.png

    Still 3 1/2 days out, so anything can happen. “Should” this depiction pan out, it would be some snow for most of SNE.

    No matter what happens, this is a fun little system to watch develop.

    1. It was awesome in person! I recorded it on DVR to watch with my mom sometime this weekend, along with Macy’s NBC coverage. She and I just watched Woburn’s Halloween Parade via local cable a few days ago. 🙂

  9. I made a minor tweak to the forecast already. I was going to hit Friday evening a little harder than I did, and held back. But looking at the 12z NAM makes me realize I should have anyway. Not out of the question we see small snow accumulation central MA, northern MA, and southern NH Friday end-of-day. That low is going to be developing so rapidly we get a little comma wrap-around to clip parts of the region.

  10. Thanks TK and Happy Thanksgiving everyone!!!
    I remember that snowy Thanksgiving back in 1989. I was five years old and went sledding on that day.

  13. JPD. I uploaded the video without sound. Even with sound, it is not uploading very well. This works but hedwig owl’s hoot is faint compared to live. There should be a video on off link in top right corner of this one.

    https://imgur.com/a/67PRQBM

  14. 12Z GFS for Sunday Night:

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021112512/087/prateptype_cat.us_ne.png

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021112512/090/prateptype_cat.us_ne.png

    Kuchera Snow (this includes whatever falls tomorrow night. Nothing Boston South for tomorrow night)

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021112512/102/snku_acc.us_ne.png

    Total accumulated snow

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021112512/042/snodpc_acc.us_ne.png

  15. Thanks, TK…

    Quite a game and finish at the Woburn-Winchester holiday game last night at Fenway! What life-long memories!

    Go Tanners!

    Have a special day today, everyone!

    1. I was right behind Woburn’s band in the stands along the right field line. That game was an instant classic!

  17. I kind of think the Friday night comma head has the better shot at producing snow for the northern half of Mass than the Sunday night system because of ….

    the comma head and the colder air aloft with Friday´s system

    a land breeze vs a light onshore breeze on Sun night/Monday

      1. Agreed.

        With the SST running so much above average, I think we´re going to need overrunning systems with departing high pressure to the north that keep the winds somewhat light during a front end dump of snow. Or, one like Friday night that has a deep 500 mb closed low and an associated comma head that can wrap some decent snow showers around its back side.

        I can´t see much snow close to the coast from a stronger system that has any kind of onshore decent wind. SST still in the low 50s.

  20. If the time to watch is Dec. 7-27 that should mean “white Christmas” potential! 🙂

    “Front loaded” basically.

    1. Well basically everything I discussed in the December portion of my winter forecast…

      It’s obviously way too soon to know if Logan, for example, will have a technical white Christmas. But we’ll see as things go…

  21. Thanks TK and Happy Thanksgiving all! It’s cloudy and chilly with temps in the low 40s here in Amsterdam NY.

    Winter storm watches are up for tomorrow for portions of NNE with 12-18” expected in the spine of the Green Mtns. We are planning to head to Stratton Saturday for opening day there. Should be some fresh snow but just hoping the winds don’t affect lift operations.

      1. It’s nice going into winter & not give a damn about snow or cold as it’s a good feeling not being mandatory now . And when I want to work a snow storm I’ll make even more money then I did before .

    1. Was planning on taking the kids to Franklin Park Zoo tomorrow morning 10:00-12:00 while the house is being cleaned….washout or manageable?

  27. Jon Sopel is returning home to Britain after a 7 year stint as chief correspondent for the BBC. He wrote a lovely farewell address to America, a country he genuinely loves, especially the kindness of its people. He also said he’ll miss the weather, much as I did when I lived in the U.K. and the Netherlands. This is one of several paragraphs devoted to weather and America’s geographical diversity:

    “I will also give thanks for the weather. America has far more bright, clear days than Britain. Sunlight is the norm. But I will keep to myself my dread – of returning and listening to those soul-sapping weather forecasts: “It will be overcast with thick cloud and drizzle…”

    Highlighting things he will miss about the U.S.:

    – Sunshine (was number 1 on his list)

    – National parks and the great outdoors

    – Fabulous geographical diversity

    – Weather reports – so much weather here (who knows, maybe he lurks as a WHW follower)

  28. For the next week, the La Nina ¨look¨ of a quiet southern jet stream and quite active northern jet stream is very evident.

    Beyond a week, latch on to any southern stream system projections at your disappointment peril, as I´ll bet some or most will disappear as time passes and those days come closer to the short term.

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