Cool To Mild, Weak Storms

101 Comments

2:49AM

High pressure brings cool but dry weather today into Thursday. A weak storm moving southwest to northeast will bring a light mix to rain event late Thursday night into Friday. The next threat of precipitation will come over the weekend and it may be cold enough for now, but that looks like an insignificant event at this time.

Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Partly cloudy. High 38-43. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 22-27. Wind N 5-10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. High 40-45. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow or mix changing to rain late. Low 30-35. Wind SE 5-10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Light rain in the morning. High 40-45. Wind E up to 10 MPH shifting to N.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 28. High 42.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 25. High 35.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 36.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 21. High 38.

101 thoughts on “Cool To Mild, Weak Storms”

  1. TK, thanks. I think you are right — no significant snow this month. I am downtown very early this am and it’s 38F. Strange “winter.”

  2. Thanks TK !

    Yesterday’s temp anomoly at Logan ended up being +20F…..

    I think parts of northern and central Texas may have put a real dent in their drought with the system currently affecting them. There was torrential rain near Dallas last night and there’s more this morning.

    According to climo, one year ago today was extremely cold. The highs were generally in the low teens.

  3. Good morning everyone! Thanks JJ and Hadi for the emails inviting me over here. TK, you have created an amazing blog and I can’t even begin to tell you how great it is to see so many familiar names from the BZ blog from years past without the garbage posts from trolls in between. I have been reading a lot of your recent posts and discussions and I gotta admit, I’m a little intimidated. But I realized we all have something in common, we all love weather, and apparently sports too, which is right up my alley. Awesome blog, thanks again! As far as the weather is concerned, looks like some boring times ahead…but we all know that can change in a heartbeat

  4. It appears that Thursday Nights system will be a rain event, How does Sunday’s look?

    I just finished a 3 week long, extremely aggravating, truck purchase experience. I can’t believe that some of these “people” if you will, actually sleep at night. They say anything to get you in there but then all the numbers change once you sit down. They would ask me what I do for a living and I tell them I work at a gas station. LOL! It was funny at times though, but the best part was when the business manager would sit down with me in the showroom, explaining to me that I am going to save $25 off some fictitious fee. By the time I was done with them they were red in the face and as aggravated as I was. I can tell quickly if they are truthful, if they are not I simply have fun with them. Nonetheless, I found a great truck a hour away. A bit of a drive but I feel it’s worth the drive for a honest experience.

    1. I’m sorry to hear about your experience, but pleased to hear you found a better deal at what sounds like an honest dealership. I can relate all too well since I had to go after a dealership back in the late 90’s under the consumer protection lemon law for a vehicle that ended up being nothing more than a big hunk of junk!

      1. Thank Sho, I almost had a similar situation a while back but we were able to work something out. They are brutal though!

  5. Nothing worse then buying a car!! I am in sales so nothing they do can trick me 🙂
    Sunday looks like a non event at this point.

    1. I agree! How about we all show up the next time one of us buys a car. Can you imagine 20 of us standing there! LOL

      “It better have all weather floor mats and external temperature”.

  6. Nice and bright this morning. Lost my sunglasses which made for a lousy drive.

    I wonder what the groundhog will have to say next week? I’ll pit him against HM at this point. (no offense!)

    1. Too funny! I was just about to check out HM’s latest video to see if he’s still jumping off his chair about the next big snowstorm!!!

  8. Ho Hum. Blah, Blah and Blah some more. Just not much happening….

    At least we have another beautiful day on our hands!

    Logan 11AM Obs: 41

    January will be, what, the 6th consecutive month of ABOVE normal temperatures?
    Is that correct? OR is it more?

  9. Last below normal month temperature wise was June.
    At least we had some snow this month and it was not snowless. I think the mild weather continues into February and snowfall will be a little closer to average. I revised my snowfall yesterday from the 40-45 inches to 20-30 inches. The only thing I was right about was Boston would not exceed 50 inches for the winter. If that happens now I would be SHOCKED.

  10. Given that we got hit yesterday with the planet’s strongest solar radiation storm since 2003, it’s highly likely that Earth will start spinning in the opposite direction and we will revert to January, 2011. 🙂

    2. Hate to be a buzz-kill Longshot but in that case, we’d have a Mediteranian climate like San Fran with flow off the ocean. We could grow lemons and palm trees!

      Wait, that’s unless you’re talking about some kind of time machine…..all we need for that then is Delorian and a flux capacitor right! Let’s check EBAY for the parts.

  11. Something, maybe, nah not gonna happen. Maybe out luck will break!!

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20120125%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_228_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=228&imagesurls=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=01%2F25%2F2012+12UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&nextImage=yes

    1. OK, seriously, does anyone expect that run to verify??
      Of course, IF it did, it would be very nice. Bet that it is GONE
      on the next run.

  12. I think AceMaster on the BZ blog yesterday was mentiong about a storm around that time. I emailed him and asked him to join the blog so will see what happens. I don’t think we see any accumulating snow for the rest of this month.

    2. JimmyJames did you hear back? Sometimes emails get stuck in spam folders and it might be a good idea to post on BZ that you emailed him. May be a bit premature.

  13. Good afternoon everyone! Thanks JJ and Hadi for the emails inviting me over here. TK, you have created an amazing blog and I can’t even begin to tell you how great it is to see so many familiar names from the BZ blog from years past without the garbage posts from trolls in between. I have been reading a lot of your recent posts and discussions and I gotta admit, I’m a little intimidated. But I realized we all have something in common, we all love weather, and apparently sports too, which is right up my alley. Awesome blog, thanks again! As far as the weather is concerned, looks like some boring times ahead…but we all know that can change in a heartbeat (sorry if this is a double post, had the same post from this morning but it’s still awaiting moderation)

  14. Another WW post from BZ, some above my knoweldge…

    The pattern is still looking very promising in the long range as we head into February. Now it’s time for winter to show up as signals show one last great push for hope that February saves the winter.
    Southern Oscillation Index
    Currently it is positive and continuing to go up and up as the MJO currently is in phase 5 with enhanced convection across Darwin, Australia. This convection is supposed to move out quickly into phase 6 resulting in pressure rises behind it over Darwin leading to what should be a fairly substantial fall in the SOI that might go well into the negative values again given the fast eastward progression of the MJO.
    This goes well for an amplification to the pattern, but is this significant? Yes if the MJO can stay strong on an eastward progression into phases 7-8. But this is one of the favorable trends we will see shortly.
    MJO

    The JMA and CMC are in agreement on the eastward progression and increasing mjo signal. To some extent the UKMET also agrees.
    Models/Ensembles
    Now that we can give the ensembles some acknowledgement with other factors supporting a favorable pattern for the East Coast for at least a little bit, let’s see how 12z’s look:
    GFS 240hr
    The two major things at 240hr are the +PNA ridge and the E PAC ridge retreating. The strong PAC jet lets up and deepens a trough east of Hawaii. This lead to our +PNA ridge. The second thing, which is still almost favorable is the higher heights building towards the arctic circle.
    By 348hrs we see indications of the PV once again forming in the Sea of Japan (Sea of Okhotsk). This is a great sign for cold in the East. It is never a good thing when models delay this much, but the argument here is the teleconnections and tropical forcing do support it for this upcoming time frame.
    Mountain Torque

    After a significant negative East Asia Mountain torque event it is possible to reverse the EPO. This happened with the last significant torque, but only lasted a short while. Perhaps this one being of greater amplitude/wavelength will contribute more. The thought is the negative AAM tendencies from these events remove positive AAM from the earth and move poleward reducing the mid and high latitude jets. Again, I only been following this as a long range tool for a short while so I put this last in the argument for cold, but I definitely think it could be a huge contributor.
    Summary
    I think February will feature our most snow (above average) and sustained cold (first negative departure month). That is not saying much, but it could save this winter for us.

      1. Thanks, Scott! Makes it a little easier – easy to see the downward temps. in Feb. (I think I’ve got it right).

        1. Although that graph isn’t to show temp anomalies, but the fact that it is negative will have a big effect on this pattern.

    2. Thanks, Hadi – wow. That info. is way over me. But from what I can understand, Feb. looks promising for longer-lasting cold weather. I guess we will see.

    1. The thing is, WW doesn’t give a rat’s patoot what people say to him in there. Always admired that. 🙂

  17. I really wish that he would come to the blog. would be a great additon.

    current conditions here its 38 degrees with clear skies and a light northwestwind.
    smarsh water rose in deapth and temperature. one foot with a temp of 38 degrees. there is no ice on it
    Sleeding hill has dirty snow on it and is about 2 or 3 inches. I will be closing it tomorrow sadly. Snow pile that i made that i could shovel it onto the hill is almost gone. Just not a good year. i am just wanting one good snow storm of 10 or more inches. I should have never have but down that i believe boston will get 50 inches of snow in the ski show compition in october, its bad luck. I think we get 30 -40 inches of snow .
    Now there is no shot of accumulating snow

  18. CPC is holding strong on their 6-10 with above normal temps but a slight decline to near normal precip. However on 8-14 they are introducing normal temps to northern New England and a below normal area to Florida while the above normal area shrinks in the eastern US, and expands in the western US. Also of note is above normal temps sneaking into southeastern Alaska on the 8-14. Signs of change.

  19. I have a relative flying into Houston. I’m assuming that Houston is behind in its flights due to the thunderstorms, which looked like they have finally cleared their local area. However, that is one solid, intense line heading for Louisiana.

    1. Hi Tom – we are heading to PJs for dinner tonight! Have to cram everything into the last few days here 🙁

        2. Tom we loved PJs. It was exactly as we remembered. We thought it was better than Barker Tavern which surprised us

          1. Excellent ! We were last in there this past September. Very cozy place with great food and I like the scenic area crossing the North River with the huge marsh area right before the restaurant.

            1. Marsh had an interesting aroma tonight. We are trying to figure it’s stronger in the winter than in summers heat

              1. LOL. The good old low tide aroma. Its pretty strong there year round. I can say in my neighborhood, we get the low tide scent more in summer.

  20. Welcome AceMaster to this blog! Now if we can get WW to come over here and post, Lol. 🙂

    David White would be a nice choice to come over here as well. Not totally sure of his weather knowledge, but his posts are enthusiastic at least.

    Here are my long range thoughts…snowy pattern to begin mid-late February just prior to or during February School Vacation Week. Not sure how Tom thinks about that one, Lol. 🙂 Snowy pattern “at times” during March into early April but warm spells as well.

    We have to be patient still everyone…below normal snowfall still expected for this winter overall but a miracle could happen to produce “near” normal. For all practical purposes though, wait til next year. 😉

    1. It can snow all it wants during Feb break. 🙂 We still have had no snow days this year and would be finished June 12th without one. I love June weather and longest days of the year, so, I hope not too many snow days to come in February.

    2. Thanks for the kind words Philip! I really hope feb. and march can deliver at least some snow. I have a ski trip planned last week in feb. to Killington, would love to have more than a 24” base to work with…lol

  21. Philip as long as the snow does not fall on Wednesday Feburary 15th when I have a flight. My favorite model as you know has light snow forecasted between the 12th-15th and the big one on the 20-23rd with 12 plus inches of heavy wet snow.

    1. Coastal so glad that you got a truck, I want one in the worst way. But both are cars paid for. I want a four door, model undecided. They say the tundra is a good buy and good truck. What kind did you buy.

          1. No, they are horrible there. I talked to Braintree, Expressway, Westboro and McGee. I ended up buying from Hyannis, they were absolutely wonderful there. Very open and honest.

  22. I just sent a post to Weather Wizzard on tonights blog, I think he will respond. I do not have the email to send to him. I asked him to post saying he is interested and we will contact him. Could you guys keep checking tomorrow to see if he responds and than send him the email invite, also told BM to do the same. I won’t have time to check over there while working. These guys would be huge here, we all know that. I hope he responds.

      1. Hi John, I still read WBZ’s blog but no longer post for fear of being trolled. But, I will keep an eye out for any response from BB or WW. I agree… they would both be a great addition to the blog!

    1. Thank’s. If he responds Hadi just post the invite email to him. You can tell for sure that it is him. I think he may do it, I hope. Thank’s Hadi.

  24. Welcome AceMaster! I loved your thoughts on BZ. All the additions you guys mentioned sound great. I’d really like to have BM on this blog. I think he would enjoy it and we would surely be excited to read about his insights regarding the rest of this winter.

  25. The BZ blog is a troll blog which is a shame. Hopefully the few good people that post there will come on to this blog.

    1. Today was really bad over there. Thought about still posting there too from time to time but man its bad

    1. Hadi, I believe WBZ could do something about it by shutting down the comments section and just have mets discussions like the other Boston stations. In fact, someone over on Melissa’s morning blog posted that suggestion and had a couple of “amens” responses. If anyone have coments to make, they can send the mets e-mails like the other stations. From time to time I have sent Harvey e-mails and he has responded almost immediately.

  30. I think it should be a one strike rule on the BZ blog. The first time you say something insulting your comments will be blocked and not show up.

  31. Unless Barry is working I don’t really read the WBZ blog and as for the comments, small things amuse small minds.

    WW is taking some heat, but is all from a few people who have no basis for their comments. Who cares! I might not necessarily agree with his hypothesis, but it is filled with reasonable assumptions and educated prognostications that have merit. That kind of thought and writing should never be ridiculed or threatened.

    My one issue with BM was that he could be bombastic and belittling to others and I thought at times that led to some of the vitriol at WBZ. He had a great first half of winter last year forecasting, then as his all in forecasting style resulted in a few misses he became a little shorter tempered and that fed the trolls. This year I had the best forecasting run of my professional life from September-Mid January after the worst run from late December to Mid January last year. You have to be willing to be humbled in forecasting, you have to know you are going to be wrong. You cannot forecast based on hope or wish and can never ignore the trends of the current season.The trolls never let you forget when you are wrong and cheer in hopes that you will be wrong. However, I think now WBZ just a wasteland for the weak and feeble and I can’t imagine why anyone would want to waste their time feeding the impotent monster.

  32. Hello all – I clicked on the link that one of the trolls posted over at BZ today and it is legit. The posts by “WeatherWizard” are from Mike DeFino, a staff meterologist at http://www.liveweatherblogs.com

    Check his blog out at the link below. It is verbatim what was posted on the BZ blog earlier. Either Mike is posting there or someone is cut/pasting his posts from liveweatherblog and posting to BZ under the “WeatherWizard” name. Mike has plenty of other posts on that blog for those interested in following what he has to say.

    http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=8&topicid=647&Itemid=179

  34. To me it’s simple I try to learn as much as I can from the professionals. Treat people as you would like to be treated.

  36. I’d be willing to bet that Mike D. is not posting as WW on WBZ but somebody is using his posts. How else could you explain his lack of response to invites to join this blog? Anybody with his knowledge and obvious love for discussing weather patterns would either jump at the chance to do so, or at the very least respectfully decline for whatever legitimate reason.

    I could be wrong but this is the feeling I get knowing this.

    Anyway, updating the blog soon.

    1. Also WW never responds to other posts on WBZ, and usually only posts once a day at most.
      Wouldn’t surprise me that the troll that put the link out for Mike D’s blog plays for team WW.

    2. TK – I totally agree with you.

      It’s also pretty surprising to me that his kid is only 23 years old and a 2010 college graduate. Don’t quite agree with everything that he says (and frankly, none of his prognostications have materialized this year), but he’s got a bright future ahead of him.

      1. Well, it’s been a tough season to forecast, at least at the start. I completely blew the early part of winter but once I caught onto what was happening it’s been a little better. And even as a snow lover I don’t care that we’re in a snow drought. The pattern still fascinates me.

        Who knows what the real truth is about WW. Maybe we’ll find out for sure, maybe not. 🙂

  37. Exactly – you adjusted to the persistence of the pattern and your forecasts have pretty much been spot on. When I hear you start to get excited about snow, I will get excited!

    WW (or should I say Mike) on the other hand, has a bit of wishcasting in his posts. He seems to be grasping at straws to me looking for obsure signals from around the globe that might lead to a change to a snowier pattern here. His post actually quotes what the GFS shows at 384 hours…when have we ever seen that verify!? Some winters you just have to accept that it isn’t in the cards. He’s clearly a bright kid and I enjoy reading his posts but I think he needs to shed that bit of Henry Margusity he has in him 🙂

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