Friday November 26 2021 Forecast (9:53AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 26-30)

Time marches on. Thanksgiving is done. Black Friday has come, and so has a low pressure area, passing to the north, dragging a cold front through. This front will cause some rainfall this morning, but as it passes and cold air begins to rush in behind it, low pressure will form on the boundary just to our east, moving rapidly into the Gulf of Maine while intensifying. This will result in a wrap-around moisture area that will fall into air that is becoming cold enough to support frozen precipitation, maybe some sleet initially, but mainly snow, and one or two bands of that will likely come across southern NH and at least central and eastern MA during the early evening hours, possibly resulting in some minor accumulation, especially on unpaved surfaces. But if a snow burst is heavy enough we will have to watch for a quick accumulation on paved / cement surfaces as well which can cool rather quickly. Even without accumulation, wet ground is vulnerable to quick freezing where it does not have a chance to dry off from the wind even after the system departs and we are just windy, cold, and dry overnight. These will all be things to keep in mind if you need to travel for work, visits, or shopping today, or just want to be out taking a walk, because like me you’d walk in any kind of weather. 😉 The new storm will be well beyond the region by morning, but will serve, in combination with high pressure approaching from the west, to cause blustery and cold but dry conditions Saturday. On Sunday, as the high pressure area moves closer, while still being quite chilly it will be less windy and easier to be outside. After Saturday has a few passing low level fair weather cumulus clouds, Sunday’s sky will display some high and mid level clouds streaming in ahead of our next unsettled weather threat. This will consist of a low pressure area (clipper-type system) coming from south central Canada into the southern Great Lakes then heading for NY State while a weak secondary low forms off the northern Mid Atlantic and just south of New England. This will be a fast-moving system, and not that strong, so its impact will be minimal, though it will be cold enough for the precipitation to fall as snow in at least parts of the region, with a little better chance for mix/rain right on the coast and especially over southeastern MA, possibly ending as snow. This will be followed by a dry and cold day to end November on Tuesday…

TODAY: Overcast with periods of rain through late morning. Mostly cloudy midday on. Highs 41-48 this morning, then temperature dropping to the 30s. Wind W 5-15 MPH increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with snow showers likely during the evening, except showers of sleet & rain nearer the South Coast which may end as snow. Snow accumulations of a coating to around 1 inch possible, with locally over 1 inch possible especially southern NH and northern MA. Patches of black ice forming quickly. Lows 21-28. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 20, sometimes below 10.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 40-47. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Overnight light snow chance except rain or snow immediate coast and Cape Cod. Lows 28-35. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy start with a chance of light mix/snow favoring southern and eastern areas, then partly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 1-5)

West northwest flow dominates the early days of December with somewhat variable temperatures averaging near to below normal in our region. Weak disturbances may bring a couple episodes of clouds and a few rain/snow showers, but hard to time these this far in advance. Either way, most of the time the weather will be fair in this pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 6-10)

A little more west to southeasterly air flow at upper levels and a little more activity in the jet stream means that precipitation chances go up during this period. Temperatures variable, near normal overall.

77 thoughts on “Friday November 26 2021 Forecast (9:53AM)”

  7. Thank you, TK.

    On a train to Philadelphia. My sister in law has advanced cancer, so I’m visiting her and my brother (and his children).

    I just passed New Haven and the sun is trying to come out.

    1. Zooming out a bit, that is a quite a snowstorm from Alabama to Maine. And all from a 1006 mb low. I am a bit skeptical of that, or really any system developing in the Gulf and riding up the coast. I have noticed the GFS really has been amplifying things a lot in the long range. Good it is at least showing something though and even a muted version of that setup could be nice.

      https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2021112612&fh=264

  11. Thanks TK.

    Blustery and snowing lightly here in Amsterdam NY with a temp down to 32. No accumulation.

    Snow is really coming down right now in the southern and central Greens as well as the Adirondacks. Great news for the ski areas this weekend and moving forward.

          1. Glanced at it quick my mistake . In my opinion it will be zilch , just my opinion & especially for Plymouth. It’s raining hard now in Halifax

            1. You’ll get flakes, and it will be less than 1 inch, probably a dusting/coating on cold surfaces.

    1. I’d rather not have an “outside runner” either. I have significant plans both Dec 4 & Dec 5, some of which are outside. 😉

      FTR, I don’t buy that dynamic a blow-up anyway. We’ve seen this far too many times on guidance this far in advance.

    1. Thanks for the link, Dave. Caught the intro, and now I’m eager to hear the rest.

      I believe you said you have been to the Blue Hills Observatory and I’m sure TK and a few others have been, but I have not. Would like to go on a windy summer day and imagine what it might have been like there for the local Native Americans, when there was no Boston skyline.

      1. Actually, I have not been, other than seeing it from the top
        of the Ski Area getting off of the chair lift.

      2. A person after my heart. I would love to do that also. We visited Mac’s sister in Spokane years ago and took a boat ride up the Snake River to Coeur d’Alene. I spent the entire ride looking up at the mountains lining the river and imagining what the native people saw when they stop looking down.

          1. Hi y’all. Out of my summer slumber.

            Hope all has been well with you and yours.

            Just started spitting snow here.

            36.5f

  15. 18Z Nam says nothing but a few flakes tonight, however, it seems
    to have a bit more energized system Sunday night dropping a solid coating to a an inch or 2. Something to watch.

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2021112618/075/ref1km_ptype.us_ne.png

    24 hour Kuchera snow

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2021112618/084/snku_024h.us_ne.png

    UKMET intensifies this system, but keeps it off shore.

    Something “may” be up. Continue to watch this one.

  18. 40 degrees here in JP.. Not doing anything at this time. IF we could get some precip in here, it would likely flip quickly.

    1. Wow. I’d that little area doesn’t slide south of you. It sure will be a nice batch. Please let us know.

      1. Oh believe me I’m not missing anything keep the snow there . I’m still not a fan even now that I do not need to clear it .

      1. Oh wow. Nothing on side roads here so I’m guessing nothing on main either. It doesn’t take much to make it slippery though

  33. I can verify the 3” mark. We were at the town common tree lighting last evening and it was snowing moderately, and made it very festive. It was sticking to the roads and the sanders made an appearance for the first time this year.

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